6 replies to this topic

[mss]

I wont bore you with a chart of the SPX at this point, there is a daily and weekly posted at the top of this board. The 8ema is still below the 34ema, but not by much, -0.360 we should know by the weekend where we are.
Below are three interesting charts, they are self explanatory. I may be very wrong here but am not yet sure the bottom is complete. Close, yes, finished, TWT. Comments and counter points wonted.





This last one is most interesting to me. Spikes are not all that common but you would think that with all the volatility we would have one. That may also be why I am still very cautious.



(john & mark jump in and say something )
mss

[SilentOne]

hi Scott,

Thanks for posting an update. I was curious as to where your charts had gotten to after November's brilliant performance.



The big question is whether this summer's low was the larger 4.5 year low. Hurst evidence is inconclusive so we have the potential for a lower low into a larger cycle bottom. On the other hand, this week's low technically looks like it could hold for a few days and that would improve the charts considerably.

What can you tell me about that squiggly yellow line? My take is that the summer of 2006 was an 18 month low and measures up with the low made by your indicator. We are now trying to dtermine the arrival of the next 18 month low and the larger 4.5 year low. Does this indicator suggest such an important bottom is in or can it go lower as the SPX finds a bottom?

Thanks for posting those great charts.

cheers,

john

[mss]

Hi john,
The first chart has developed a problem of some sort, below is its replacement.



The cycles you refer to is by chance and not design. That chart is based on volumn and price change only over some period of time. The chart that TTHQ will correct, and in this post is the difference of two moving averages. I'll PM you the calculations later.
Both have a good record, but as always than can change. Other charts I have suggest that we have a "bottom fishing" starting, the question is where and when will we get confermation.
More later, best to you,
mss

[relax]

Which indicator does the 13eSCh reflect? Thanks mss ;-)

[mss]

Which indicator does the 13eSCh reflect?

Thanks mss ;-)

Sorry to be so long in responding was away. This one, as noted onchart, is of the SPX.
Here is the calculation:
The calculation for "SCH" is as follows:
SCH = 25 day ROC (rate of change) of SPX (or any index) smoothed by 8ema or 13ema.
There are many ways to use it, 8 & 13 crossover, crossover of 50dy ma & or 200dy ma, etc.
25ROC is half of the 50dy & 1/4 of the 200dy
mss

[iloli way]

This last one is most interesting to me. Spikes are not all that common but you would think that with all the volatility we would have one. That may also be why I am still very cautious.

'Spiked' yet?

Thanks.

[relax]

Mss, could you post an update on the 13eSCh thanks!