42 replies to this topic

[hiker]

I would love comments that explain why my conclusions may be simplistic and/or why the method of observation is too simplistic to be valid?

open minded so please poke some holes in this.

here is an intro. unique to this post here at TT

QQQQ charts with comments at link

the WEEKLY is the primary trend..the MONTHLY confirms the trend...trend has returned to UP for the current weekly/monthly close. PRICE is king....it knows more than we do. Objective observation of actual fact trumps all methods of predictive-based analysis.

scroll to end of thread for my closing basis charts, with comments...I posted Friday intraday charts first in this thread, so simply zoom by those.


60min
daily
weekly
monthly

http://forums.techni...54#post22212854

comments from my overall summary section:

5. overall -

why not be bullish while:

price makes weekly closes above the rising 5 mo. sma

price makes daily closes above the rising 15week sma

price makes daily closes above the rising weekly midline BB

what more could a bull want than successive and successful tests of the 34week ema, followed by a steady price reversal once the tests were complete?
------
next week could easily find support at the rising bullish data points above, or make a sustained reversal below..best to react to what price ACTUALLY does and avoid the temptation to predict.

Edited by hiker, 01 December 2007 - 11:00 AM.

[hiker]

Carl Swenlin on 11/30

http://www.decisionp...130_bottom.html

[ogm]

Hiker, you're right, its hard to poke a whole through the price levels alone.

I know this isn't what you were looking for, but the only way I can pokie a whole through NDX is from this perspective.

Edited by ogm, 01 December 2007 - 11:18 AM.

[hiker]

thanks, ogm...what are your comments about this weekly/monthly? considering it represents a monthly and weekly close.



the upper H line on the monthly corresponds to the MA value on the weekly..the lower H line is major H support that was successfully retested..not the first time for such a test during the multi-year advance off the bubble decline.

Edited by hiker, 01 December 2007 - 11:24 AM.

[ogm]

Carl Swenlin on 11/30

http://www.decisionp...130_bottom.html

I think the key word in Swenlin's analysys is "Process".

Will the process lead to an actual bottom ? That is yet to be determined.

[hiker]

ogm, a chart by someone else on related topic to consider in the mix -

http://investorshub....age_id=24945480

curious, ogm. do I understand correctly that you do not BELIEVE what price is doing at the moment? You believe the Friday closing-basis rally should be faded for profitably trading strategy? I am asking seriously cause I respect your observational talents. I am only asking with a near-term perspective. You saw me post here yesterday about two hours before the close that I was trading based on expecting a move lower first before a move above 1490 cash SPX 1495 ES.

the intraday posts from yest -

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=80358

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=80359

closing basis chart..only one swing-trade type MA on this 60min chart does NOT reside above the impt. 200sma resistance...the only price action confirmation that is currently lacking for FULL CONFIRMATION of the trend reversal now that price has moved about $8 off the V bottom

note the H line tested late day has been in play for mos.

Edited by hiker, 01 December 2007 - 11:43 AM.

[ogm]

NDX Weekly is wobbly. Needs to prove its strength. RSI, CCI, ULT are struggling around 50, MACD, PPO rolled over. Though technicaly its still in uptrend, overall loss of momentum is evident. Monthly still in uptrend no doubt. The only real beef I have with the monthly chart is that volume candle. And the RSI rolled over from very overbought level.

Edited by ogm, 01 December 2007 - 11:43 AM.

[Rogerdodger]

Hiker, you are a great asset to us here!

next week could easily find support at the rising bullish data points above, or make a sustained reversal below..best to react to what price ACTUALLY does and avoid the temptation to predict.

I like your style on this and agree with you (and Ted Burge ).

Unfortunately, I have one 401K IRA where I basically have to predict.
I can only trade it once a day and the order has to be entered 1 hour before the close.
I HATE IT! (I can't close it for several more months.)

Anyway, we should see the positive 1st of month money coming in, but are getting oversold.
Sentimentrader has been stuck at a bullish level for 3 days.
(Mark got his Single Best Sell signal Friday.
A strong close Monday would have me VST bearish as sentiment would go high enough for a bit of a pullback.

The 2 day RSI trading system below is interesting.
According to this system, since we have fallen below the 200 DMA, one should be short here
since the RSI is over 90 and the price was/is below the 200 dma!
Well, I'm not short but did go flat at Friday's close.
Seasonal: positive
Overbought but could get more so.
A pullback like we saw August 27th, and I'll be all over it.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p55108568751&a=94546561&r=1588.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 01 December 2007 - 11:57 AM.

[hiker]

for SPX monthly, price resides below 5mo. sma...so, simply on this one data point a trader can find fault that the bull has been confirmed.

price resides above the 5 mo sma for QQQQ which is much better looking than the sma for SPX...I usually show the BB on the monthly but not this time

note the ABSENCE of the sell longs signal on the SPX monthly ...such signal is the penetration with a steep angle completely through the 5sma by the displaced 3 ema.



QQQQ

the upper H line is the value of the rising 15week sma

Edited by hiker, 01 December 2007 - 11:59 AM.

[ogm]

Hiker, you're correct, I don't beleive this rally. To be honest at this point I do not know what to beleive. The market is torn apart. This isn't the bull market anymore, and not bear market yet. I'm looking at some charts that have entered clear downtrends and represent big chunks of the market, like RUT or Transports. At the same time Utilities are in a strong uptrend. Financials are oversold, but they are also now entering LT downtrends. So they are bouncing now, but beyond that they still need to prove they can build on that bounce. Internals are very strongly diverging. Even looking at NDX.. yes its in uptrend, but more then half of its components are in downtrends with BP under 50%. So the question is will the strong stocks carry the indexes for a bit longer, will the weak segments start catching up, or will the strong stocks finaly succumb to broader weakness and start pulliung the indexes down ? If the history is any guide, strongs stocks should give in eventualy. Price action alone here is also questionable. Loss of momentum and negative divergences are all over the place on weekly/monthly charts. Daily is struggling in the middle of support/resistance areas. So its a tough call here. I'd say we're in a topping process more likely then in a bottoming process.