42 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Way I see it is the cat is out of the bag. Next week we're going to start hearing DIRE news from the financial sector. All the rate cuts in the world, even negative interest rates will not save us from what is coming. We're looking at a potential "cash-based" housing market in the future. Under such a scenario, without the securitization of the asset, and no instruments acceptable to back mortgages, prices will plummet... and if there's no future in private home ownership, the banks will be the ultimate victims of their own greed... set up on those cut-rate variable loans made a few years ago, with the hopes of garnering huge profits on resets in the future. Rolling the interest rates back now only exascerbates the problem, not solve it.

[relax]

basically we are concluding that everything is possible although i have not heard anybody say we just go to new highs from here like we did back in august i really don't know - so just like hiker and RD i will follow price but the easiet IMO would be to take this thing to new highs - nobody would believe it a lot of bears outthere demanding a retest like they demanded it back in august not saying they will be wrong again - we will see, i certainly think the most dangerous thing one can do in this market is to explain og analyze using fundamentals

[SemiBizz]

interesting SB..thanks.

I notice that NDX has 8 consecutive monthly closes above the rising 5mo. sma.

I'm not concerned with averages... averages are in the middle. I'm all about TURNS.

[hedgehawk]

Right, sector rotation Sell the NDX and buy the XLF. For now.......... this may not last long.

[Rogerdodger]

This chart still has some interest for me.
It looks like a good bottom and retest from August.
But previous bottom action does allow for a little rest.
Somewhere in here, the nearly vertical angle of current up trend line needs to be moderated by a pull back or pause.
Longer term that divergence is troublesome.
I guess it's possible that it may be resolved favorably. TWT
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=2000-08-16&i=p97952302375&a=114631410&r=9329.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 01 December 2007 - 01:27 PM.

[marco]

[quote name='Rogerdodger' date='Dec 1 2007, 01:11 PM' post='334406']
The Halloween BOOO! still lingers:

I'm easily amused, but that's one of the funniest things I've seen.

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



The signal on the QQQQ is also a LT Bearish one, as you can see we were unable to test the previous month's high on much STRONGER VOLUME. We not only test the low in November we also close below the candle. That November Candle on the lower part of the graph... speaks VOLUMES in more ways than one !!
(highest monthly volume in QQQQ history)

Edited by SemiBizz, 01 December 2007 - 03:30 PM.

[hiker]

SB, agreed about the QQQQ volume candle?

what do you make of the absence of that repeating on the NDX volume candle history on the monthly?

what I make of it is folks were suckered ..both willing and unwilling sellers..both longs and shorts active in QQQQ, and hedging activity.

even our former ChartSmarts.com chartist was bearish near the bottom...see his blog.

this NDX closing basis weekly shows nothing other than a currently unbroken uptrend



fooling around with the NDX monthly

Edited by hiker, 01 December 2007 - 04:18 PM.

[SemiBizz]

The reason for the divergence in the index is GOOG, RIMM, AMZN, AAPL etc., I think Hank and the boyz figured out a way to goose the market on relatively little money. Look inside that thing, the semiconductors are devestated. CSCO and DELL just fell on their @SSeS. MSFT and ORCL went nowhere.

[hiker]

ok, understand the weighting in QQQQ that those components have.

not sure the thesis is valid that they are subject to manipulation.

weekly closes on GOOG and AAPL above the rising 5wk sma.

4 consecutive weekly closes below the 5wk sma for RIMM, and the weekly 5 sma continues to slightly decline for RIMM>

here is my detailed look inside NDX and QQQQ carried on weekly basis since 9/28

http://forums.techni...amp;trail=50#14

Edited by hiker, 01 December 2007 - 04:23 PM.