31 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

IT, I was one of them. I remember having the conversation with Ike that this was the most well advertised low in history. And it was! The take away, for me, was that when you get the pessimism THAT built up, and you get rates that low and the cash built up on the side lines, AND tons of folks still shorting for a test, well, that rally can go much further than you'd think. I note that we did not see anything like the type of optimism in equities that other tops have shown, but that's likely swamped by the complex financial problems and the change in at the Fed. Mark

[beta]

Sometime when you have the time, and if the archives still permit (from the old board), you might go back and take a look at the initial rally off the bottom in 2003. There were some mighty smart posters, some of them gurus, who assurred us that there were too many bulls. Chart after chart proved that a decline was immediately ahead. Needless to say, it was wrong.

This market is giving every indication that it is a bear market, as I posted back in December. It will definitely have rallies. But this is not going to give you the same juice as the bull market did.

IT

Hey IT, I hear your point. Having profitably played the long side for many years now (mostly in commodities), Ive been keeping an eye for the Sign of the Bear, and have posted as much since August 07. My post was in the limited context of responding to an inaccurate reading of fear levels on today's board sentiment.

Believe me, I have too much respect for traders on this board to fade them (OK, some of them).

Having said that, you can also go back and see that at every major bottom during the five-year bull, relatively few were buying the fear. Just check the Aug. 16th postings and see who was buying (I posted my RT buys on the gold board). Some day, those buyers will be wrong.

Meanwhile, I posted last Friday that I was expecting a retest of the 1388 level (a higher low), and that's what we got w/ volume divergences. So I go w/ my signal, regardless of what sentiment says.

Edited by beta, 15 January 2008 - 08:03 PM.

[KnowNuttin2]

Mark, thanks for your input. I am looking at several others besides vix. Not "feeling" anything in terms of fear. Also, just look at volume. Where is the washout? Now, I do show more bearish posts and that is a start but the real fear IMHO is not there.

Mark, just saw INTC print, maybe we will see some real fear tommorrow. LOL

Here's a hint on board "sentiment": I'd guess its fair to say that for most of today, most traders on this board were SCARED CHICKEN-$$IT !

How many posters did you see except for me, NAV, endisnear & Denleo post in real-time today that they were buying this fear? Zippo.

Believe me, Ive been buying the FEAR bottoms since '03 on the bull side (just check my posts). This is what FEAR feels like, and I like being in the minority on these extreme-price/fear trades. Not saying it cant go lower; but think we're getting close to some kind of complex bottom. (And if not, da Bull is over.)

Totally Silly post!!...we've been bull phase since '03. Now after 5 long years we're due for a bear phase.

"genuine" is the exact word to describe it.. why? with all derivative and hedge hog army, it is gonna be something quite unique... I dont want to call it a crash but it is also suggested by many studies....

regarding my target... well you all know what i had in mind for the last 9 months... there is a gap at 1035

I wouldn't be surprised by the number. You and that flux capacitator are usually always right on. I look forward to your takes but, I think it's going to be a bear a whole lot longer than two weeks. The debt issues are too big and spread out all over the economy to begin and end so quickly.

When we get down 20+% CNBS will tell us we're in a bear mtk. Thats when we'll spend the next few months ralling. I don't play the bull or bear mkt game. And I'm only competeing against myself to be the best trader i can be. AND for me if stocks or indices are below their 200day averages then i play them bear.

In the summer I hook the PC's up on a large table in the shade near the pool and whether the my stocks or the indices are below the 200 day moving average or not... I play them bare.

TOO much info...I can't get that image out of my mind.

[beta]

Too bad this board has so many more talkers than traders.

Edited by beta, 15 January 2008 - 08:38 PM.

[KnowNuttin2]

Too bad this board has so many more talkers than traders.

I'm a hugh trader...came in 67 thousand delta short today. bought small during the day and bigger in after hours.

[milbank]

Too bad this board has so many more talkers than traders.

That might be, I wouldn't know but, there certainly couldn't be as many as the different cycle counts at any given time on this board.

Edited by milbank, 15 January 2008 - 09:11 PM.

[milbank]

TOO much info...I can't get that image out of my mind.

If it helps to calm your scarred imagination, I can assure you I am not an accordion player.

Edited by milbank, 15 January 2008 - 09:39 PM.

[KnowNuttin2]

TOO much info...I can't get that image out of my mind.

If it helps to calm your scarred imagination, I can assure you I am not an accordion player.

You are with that trophy wife skinny dippin and prancing around.

TOO much info...I can't get that image out of my mind.

If it helps to calm your scarred imagination, I can assure you I am not an accordion player.

You are with that trophy wife skinny dippin and prancing around.

I should have said that... I'm a trombone player when the wife is skinny dippin...and that's after 18yrs of marriage.

[milbank]

18 years and she still lubes your valve? Excellent!

Edited by milbank, 15 January 2008 - 10:12 PM.

[KnowNuttin2]

18 years and she still lubes your valves. Excellent!

Hope your's does toooo....G'nite