What Would Hurt The Largest Number?
#1
Posted 12 February 2008 - 08:41 AM
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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#2
Posted 12 February 2008 - 08:52 AM
I'm looking at the sentiment and I'm thinking how could the market catch the largest number wrong footed.
A crash? A test? A grinding orderly decline? Or a stealth rally that looks rotten but keeps going?
I'm just saying, you gotta think these things...
Mark
Don't forget this one: a rally that targets positive divergence levels, and gets sold there. That would be criminal, too.
#3
Posted 12 February 2008 - 08:57 AM
#4
Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:01 AM
#5
Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:06 AM
#6
Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:24 AM
#7
Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:26 AM
#8
Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:29 AM
#9
Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:29 AM
Has anyone backtested the concept that the least likely scenario, the one most apt to fool the majority, is in fact the course that the market takes?
IT
The history did.
Majority don't make money in the markets. If Majority was right it would be easy to make money in the market and everyone would be doing it.
#10
Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:36 AM
Has anyone backtested the concept that the least likely scenario, the one most apt to fool the majority, is in fact the course that the market takes?
IT
100% of bottoms occur when bottoming appears to be the least likely scenario, OR when the majority is unwilling to position long.
So, it's a Bear market until proven otherwise, but there's a dandy set up for a low, too. One is well advised to watch for a turn and to not fear the long side if one can trade that way.
Mark
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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