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What Would Hurt The Largest Number?


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 12 February 2008 - 08:41 AM

I'm looking at the sentiment and I'm thinking how could the market catch the largest number wrong footed. A crash? A test? A grinding orderly decline? Or a stealth rally that looks rotten but keeps going? I'm just saying, you gotta think these things... Mark

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#2 spielchekr

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Posted 12 February 2008 - 08:52 AM

I'm looking at the sentiment and I'm thinking how could the market catch the largest number wrong footed.

A crash? A test? A grinding orderly decline? Or a stealth rally that looks rotten but keeps going?

I'm just saying, you gotta think these things...

Mark


Don't forget this one: a rally that targets positive divergence levels, and gets sold there. That would be criminal, too.

#3 ogm

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Posted 12 February 2008 - 08:57 AM

I think the rotten slow grinding rally. The bearish masses would keep shorting it, whining about low volume, high trin, "we're still in a downtrend", "the world is still ending next week" ... you pick a complaint it will be there. And the market would just slowly creep up with some dips on bad news that keep reinforcing the bears. Makes the most sense to me.

#4 thespookyone

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Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:01 AM

A rally that promises the bottom is in, while showing poor AD. You trade up on hope-then get failure.

#5 selecto

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Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:06 AM

Make a "good" double bottom, rocket and smash.

#6 IndexTrader

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Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:24 AM

Has anyone backtested the concept that the least likely scenario, the one most apt to fool the majority, is in fact the course that the market takes? :lol: IT

#7 Cirrus

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Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:26 AM

I actually think a grinding 1973-74 decline would hurt the most over a period of time. There's just so much money floating around the globe with low interest rates...difficult market indeed.

#8 traderpaul

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Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:29 AM

A flat market that gets the bulls and bears
"Inflation is taking place now. Prices may not appear to be rising because they are making packaging smaller. "— Rickoshay

#9 ogm

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Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:29 AM

Has anyone backtested the concept that the least likely scenario, the one most apt to fool the majority, is in fact the course that the market takes? :lol:

IT



The history did.

Majority don't make money in the markets. If Majority was right it would be easy to make money in the market and everyone would be doing it.

#10 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 12 February 2008 - 09:36 AM

Has anyone backtested the concept that the least likely scenario, the one most apt to fool the majority, is in fact the course that the market takes? :lol:

IT


100% of bottoms occur when bottoming appears to be the least likely scenario, OR when the majority is unwilling to position long.

So, it's a Bear market until proven otherwise, but there's a dandy set up for a low, too. One is well advised to watch for a turn and to not fear the long side if one can trade that way.

Mark

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