42 replies to this topic

[rameshutt]

Has anyone backtested the concept that the least likely scenario, the one most apt to fool the majority, is in fact the course that the market takes?

IT

what has been tested however, is this - whatever course the market takes is the one that was least expected. Unfortunately, any of us that knows it would have been killed by the market while it was busy faking out the others whose path it is taking. We will know as soon as the timeframe of the forecaster has passed, what the least expected path was, and how the market actually took it fooling everyone else in the process.



IT - though often I get annoyed with your contra-postings, it makes sense in the long run. Hey, you are it, IT.

[milbank]

I'm with the slow grind up folks as being the move that would hurt the most people as I think there will a slow grind down. A volitile, slow grind down but, a grind down nonetheless.

That being said, as long as the powers that be keep lying and making it sound less bad and more contained than it is, as long as they keep telling us the "fixes" are actually going to fix this slow-motion economic calamity, it could be that what I think is actually going to happen...the slow grind down...will hurt the most. Sheeple aren't just the amateur investors/traders. I'm amazed at how many professionals are and have been buying the hustle for over a year now.

Edited by milbank, 12 February 2008 - 09:59 AM.

[denleo]

Declining prices hurt the most people. What else? 60% of US population is invested in the stock market. Therefore we are going down!!! Denleo

[rameshutt]

I'm with the slow grind up folks as being the move that would hurt the most people as I think there will a slow grind down. A volitile, slow grind down but, a grind down nonetheless.

I am sorry - I don't get it. So you are saying it will be a slow grind - DOWN or UP?

I am with quick UP, slow grind down to previous starting point, quick UP, slow grind down - a few times followed by a (what feels like) a never-ending grind down. During this time frame - say 2-3 months S&P will be between 1300 and 1400. And then, buh-bye...

[SemiBizz]

Could be something very simple like the gap up above, everyone getting on board for a fill and then the rug pulled overnite. Looking at the charts, since this Buffett deal was hatched last week, it looks like we could have traded off the bottom in anticipation of it, then gapped down on the disappointment of the offers to the insurers... (which Buffett made last week).

[milbank]

I'm with the slow grind up folks as being the move that would hurt the most people as I think there will a slow grind down. A volitile, slow grind down but, a grind down nonetheless.

I am sorry - I don't get it. So you are saying it will be a slow grind - DOWN or UP?

I am with quick UP, slow grind down to previous starting point, quick UP, slow grind down - a few times followed by a (what feels like) a never-ending grind down. During this time frame - say 2-3 months S&P will be between 1300 and 1400. And then, buh-bye...

Sorry, I've got half an eye on a position I just put in. I'm saying the most people will be hurt by a slow grind up. I think it will be a slow grind down and I think a lot of other people do too.

Then,
I got cynical and then added that perhaps most people, even the pros, think it will recover and go up without going down so, going down will be worse.

One thing is for sure...

I should not post while trading.

[Mike McCarthy]

I'm looking at the sentiment and I'm thinking how could the market catch the largest number wrong footed.

A crash? A test? A grinding orderly decline? Or a stealth rally that looks rotten but keeps going?

I'm just saying, you gotta think these things...

Mark

I don't know who "the largest number" might be, but what I hear through the largest number of walls where I have my ear pressed is this:

trend lines are broken
moving averages have crossed
support is now resistance
this is a bear market
all the bad news is not out
we have to retest the lows
the consumer is strapped
housing won't recover anytime soon
etc, etc.

Fundamental analysts, non-financial journalists, folks I know who pay practically zero attention to their 401k....all of them seem to have caught this same vibe: they expect more decline, a double bottom, and then a new bull market.

What would surprise them most? -- a rotten stealth rally from here, with no re-test, and no drama.

[OEXCHAOS]

Only 14% of the pollees at TSP talk think that the low is in. 67% think that new lows are coming. Price is reality, but looks like the Bears have a lot of company. Mark

[NAV]

Bottom ? What kind of a bottom are we talking about? VST, ST, IT, LT ? Is the rally gonna last one day, one week, one month ? New ATHs or not ? It would be nice if one can assign a timeframe to the bottom that we are talking about.

[SemiBizz]

Bottom ? What kind of a bottom are we talking about? VST, ST, IT, LT ? Is the rally gonna last one day, one week, one month ? New ATHs or not ?

It would be nice if one can assign a timeframe to the bottom that we are talking about.

Why NAV... As Hayrake would have put it... THEE BOTTOM, of course.

Edited by SemiBizz, 12 February 2008 - 10:23 AM.