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For those who are not short yet


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#1 denleo

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Posted 19 February 2008 - 10:01 AM

Europeans just gave you the best opportunity to short this market. Take advantage of it. I can see that some technical indicators can be viewed as bullish, but they will not produce the desired results in a bear market. And how do I know we are in a bear market? Because the bullish indicators are not producing the desired results. Denleo

#2 bigtrader

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Posted 19 February 2008 - 10:08 AM

Can't argue with you. However, would like to see this levitate another day or so to complete some patterns.

No longer interested in debating with IGNORANT people.


#3 eminimee

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Posted 19 February 2008 - 10:22 AM

IMVHO...now is not the time for big directional bets with ultra wide stops in either direction....that type of bias can hurt right now. ...but wtfdik.

#4 ogm

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Posted 19 February 2008 - 10:22 AM

What are the desired results ? Instant gratification society :) Sometimes just need to be patient. Look at VLNC. Was a dog for weeks. And now trippled in just a few days. Up 50% since they announced the contract.

Edited by ogm, 19 February 2008 - 10:24 AM.


#5 milbank

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Posted 19 February 2008 - 10:28 AM

What are the desired results ?

Instant gratification society :) Sometimes just need to be patient.

Look at VLNC. Was a dog for weeks. And now trippled in just a few days. Up 50% since they announced the contract.

da cheif should be arriving any minute to bask in the glory. :lol:

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw


"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe


#6 arbman

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Posted 19 February 2008 - 10:46 AM

This rally was about rescueing the financials, and financials are already negative for the day? Posted Image Basic materials and the energy leading by a large margin? Posted Image The implied volatilties did not even budge down? Posted Image The small caps lagging? Posted Image I mean there is a lot more, these are just the broad strokes. It appears to me mostly an attempt to force the short sellers out of their positions before going lower. The most positive is that the gaps did not close after the first hour of trading, so it could still reverse higher for the remainder of the day, watch the implied volatilities, they need to come down quickly if there is any juice left for a follow through higher. I am not super bullish or bearish, I think Feb will be a flat month and there might be better prices to position short. I expect one more downside slide ahead of the Q2 earnings from early March since I doubt that the financials' books improved much despite the record borrowing out there, I don't know it will be a higher or lower low. Certainly the market will not make a new high over the next 7-8 wks...

Edited by arbman, 19 February 2008 - 10:47 AM.


#7 ogm

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Posted 19 February 2008 - 10:50 AM

This rally was about rescueing the financials, and financials are already negative for the day? Posted Image Basic materials and the energy leading by a large margin? Posted Image The implied volatilties did not even budge down? Posted Image The small caps lagging? Posted Image I mean there is a lot more, these are just the broad strokes. It appears to me mostly an attempt to force the short sellers out of their positions before going lower. The most positive is that the gaps did not close after the first hour of trading, so it could still reverse higher for the remainder of the day, watch the implied volatilities, they need to come down quickly if there is any juice left for a follow through higher. I am not super bullish or bearish, I think Feb will be a flat month and there might be better prices to position short. I expect one more downside slide ahead of the Q2 earnings from early March since I doubt that the financials' books improved much despite the record borrowing out there, I don't know it will be a higher or lower low. Certainly the market will not make a new high over the next 7-8 wks...



I agree with TP.

This market can whipsaw for weeks. It doesn't have to collapse in a fiery crash, or rocket to the moon. Up... Down.. Up.. Down... Rinse repeat. Day after day, week after week. Driving everyone nuts.

I'm just going to trade individual stocks, and occasional futures.

And hold dividend paying stuff.

Many stocks are very oversold on weekly/monthly charts. There is no real room to drop anymore. And yet may take time to build a base before a big upleg.

Edited by ogm, 19 February 2008 - 10:52 AM.


#8 milbank

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Posted 19 February 2008 - 10:55 AM

I agree with TP.

This market can whipsaw for weeks. It doesn't have to collapse in a fiery crash, or rocket to the moon. Up... Down.. Up.. Down... Rinse repeat. Day after day, week after week. Driving everyone nuts.

I'm just going to trade individual stocks, and occasional futures.

And hold dividend paying stuff.


Except for the futures, same here. Including the "dividend paying stuff" (via NRO). Today is easy. Shorted a couple of minutes into the open (I rarely do anything in the first 30 to 60 minutes) and wait. The non NRO monies for the LT equitiesmutual funds port. will stay in MMs getting 4.67% as I wait to go back in further down the road as I expect the whole shoobang to ultimately go down further before THE Bottom.

Edited by milbank, 19 February 2008 - 10:59 AM.

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw


"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe


#9 ogm

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Posted 19 February 2008 - 11:26 AM

I agree with TP.

This market can whipsaw for weeks. It doesn't have to collapse in a fiery crash, or rocket to the moon. Up... Down.. Up.. Down... Rinse repeat. Day after day, week after week. Driving everyone nuts.

I'm just going to trade individual stocks, and occasional futures.

And hold dividend paying stuff.


Except for the futures, same here. Including the "dividend paying stuff" (via NRO). Today is easy. Shorted a couple of minutes into the open (I rarely do anything in the first 30 to 60 minutes) and wait. The non NRO monies for the LT equitiesmutual funds port. will stay in MMs getting 4.67% as I wait to go back in further down the road as I expect the whole shoobang to ultimately go down further before THE Bottom.



What do you expect to go down ? This isn't the market like it used to be. Some stuff is going up, some down. No more uniformity like the past few years.

Stock pickers market, IMO. Indexes are anyone's guess.

Edited by ogm, 19 February 2008 - 11:26 AM.


#10 milbank

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Posted 19 February 2008 - 11:43 AM

I agree with TP.

This market can whipsaw for weeks. It doesn't have to collapse in a fiery crash, or rocket to the moon. Up... Down.. Up.. Down... Rinse repeat. Day after day, week after week. Driving everyone nuts.

I'm just going to trade individual stocks, and occasional futures.

And hold dividend paying stuff.


Except for the futures, same here. Including the "dividend paying stuff" (via NRO). Today is easy. Shorted a couple of minutes into the open (I rarely do anything in the first 30 to 60 minutes) and wait. The non NRO monies for the LT equitiesmutual funds port. will stay in MMs getting 4.67% as I wait to go back in further down the road as I expect the whole shoobang to ultimately go down further before THE Bottom.



What do you expect to go down ? This isn't the market like it used to be. Some stuff is going up, some down. No more uniformity like the past few years.

Stock pickers market, IMO. Indexes are anyone's guess.


I agree in the short term. I don't do the IT but, in the long term I still think "Main St." hasn't felt the full brunt of what "Wall St." has, and still is, going through. I still expect retail and many service industries to feel more of a pinch and lower earnings. As I said over the weekend, this is a guesstimate based on what I see as an economy that has much more erosion to go before it bottoms. I don't see a "V" shaped recovery but, a "U" shaped. A protracted, volitile down with a less protracted but still, most likely volitile recovery. I don't see the underlying economic issues only producing a 20% drop. I'm not completely sure what I'm looking for but, I would guess it's in the 1150-1200 area on the S&P. Maybe a little more down than that. I'm not sure. I like architect's suggestion of watching the 48 week RSI. As I said in that thread over the weekend, I'm open to any suggestions like architect's to give me some guide on a more technical basis. There is, in my humble opinion, more damage to be done before THE bottom is in. I'd like (and hope) to put those monies back in around that bottoming range. We shall see.


As far as today goes. My short covered while I was typing this. I'm done for the day. :)

Edited by milbank, 19 February 2008 - 11:47 AM.

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw


"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe