34 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

You think bottom picking was this easy that anyone can do it? As I said before, I'm not even done buying, and I'm planning to buy some more at lower prices. Many of the weak handed bulls will capitulate before its ready to go up. The stubborn bears will be jubilent and refuse to believe it. Market will bottom out before commodities. Only people in commodities now are people with no clue. Hence it will be the last to pull out and the drop will be ferocious. But I expect them to swing into stocks at higher prices, so don't expect it to dump real soon. But dump it shall. And a lot of $ will be made shorting it.

[arbman]

IMHO, the commodity prices will not drop before the equities retreat further, simply because this has never happened before.

[dcengr]

Much of the commodity rise can be attributed to dollar's weakness. People get crazy thoughts that just because the dollar drops, they need to buy gold and silver beyond the depreciation of the dollar against euro and other currencies. Duh, why make it more expensive for the europeans to buy the stuff just because our economy is jacked? And if their economy is jacked too, why buy it at all? The catalyst that will make commodities dump will simply be the dollar bottom. How will it bottom? Someone else besides the US will lower rates. It has nothing to do with US economy recovering. On the contrary, it has more to do with europeans waking up to the fact our Fed has known for some time, that its not just the US slowing. But somehow thats not the rationale that will be used to rally the stock market. The stock market will rally only because the commodities bubble will pop.

[SemiBizz]

The best evidence we have that the commodity stocks will drop before the commodities is guess what? Commodities making new highs WITHOUT the stocks making new highs...

[humble1]

d: do your realize that the demand/carryover ratio is at a sixty year low ? this is no fluke; this is fundamentals TRIUMPHANT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i posted about this months ago. the world is changing, i can feel it in the water and the land.

[IndexTrader]

You think bottom picking was this easy that anyone can do it?

As I said before, I'm not even done buying, and I'm planning to buy some more at lower prices.

Many of the weak handed bulls will capitulate before its ready to go up. The stubborn bears will be jubilent and refuse to believe it.

Market will bottom out before commodities. Only people in commodities now are people with no clue. Hence it will be the last to pull out and the drop will be ferocious. But I expect them to swing into stocks at higher prices, so don't expect it to dump real soon. But dump it shall. And a lot of $ will be made shorting it.

Yep, that's exactly how a bull market would work. The question is, are we in a bull market? Evidently you think so. Meanwhile, what are you doing with that gold short of yours?

IT

[ogm]

Commodities are just the latest fad. Speculative money. Once something else will start moving funds will dump commodities and buy something else. US dollar is possibly trying to make a bottom. Something interesting emerged on the horizon today... Government bailout of the mortgage market. If government will start buying bad mortgages then the pressure will be off the Fed to cut rates. That will boost the dollar. That will also boost the stocks and cause the sector rotation. Thats something the government should've done all along. Buy the bad loans from banks to reliquify them and don't dick around with the interest rates. Looks like finaly they are coming to that decision. According to CNBC the bill may be introduced in congress next week. Don't underestimate how positive that will be for the market. You heard it here first

Edited by ogm, 05 March 2008 - 04:12 PM.

[gannman]

Commodities are just the latest fad. Speculative money. Once something else will start moving funds will dump commodities and buy something else.

US dollar is possibly trying to make a bottom.


Something interesting emerged on the horizon today... Government bailout of the mortgage market. If government will start buying bad mortgages then the pressure will be off the Fed to cut rates. That will boost the dollar. That will also boost the stocks and cause the sector rotation.

Thats something the government should've done all along. Buy the bad loans from banks to reliquify them and don't dick around with the interest rates.
Looks like finaly they are coming to that decision.

According to CNBC the bill may be introduced in congress next week. Don't underestimate how positive that will be for the market. You heard it here first

yeah i heard about that thanks for the analysis

[arbman]

The stock market will rally only because the commodities bubble will pop.

The commodity bubble will not pop unless the Fed stops printing and if the Fed stops printing, the equities will come down faster. The money printed so far did not go into growth stocks, it went into the inflationary stocks, you can not expect the rotation to happen now, it only happens when the prices retreat lower. Commodity bubble with a picture and it is about to pop in about 2-3 days and the equities will pop too unfortunately, perhaps not as intense though since they are already in a downtrend...





humble1, demand/carryover ratio could make sense if the demand was real, I don't think so...

ogm, the treasuries will be toast...

[TheArchitect]

According to CNBC the bill may be introduced in congress next week. Don't underestimate how positive that will be for the market. You heard it here first

so... if you heard about it today... and i heard about it today... why would the market wait until next week to pop one about it...