37 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

(And I love how all the biggest permabears from '03-'07 are now the biggest wannabe longs -- you guys are only five years TOO LATE. LMAO)

Correction: INSIDER has the best LT track record for market calls.

I wasn't even on this board in 03... and for that matter, doesn't look like you were either.

Edited by dcengr, 03 April 2008 - 11:52 PM.

[beta]

(And I love how all the biggest permabears from '03-'07 are now the biggest wannabe longs -- you guys are only five years TOO LATE. LMAO)

Correction: INSIDER has the best LT track record for market calls.

I wasn't even on this board in 03... and for that matter, doesn't look like you were either.

"Mens rea."

In '03, I posted daily on a site called BullStool.com and I was MEGA-LONG COMMODITIES (e.g., AKS, BHP, RIO, RIG, etc)

There were so few bulls around that the proprietor had to shut down the site. That was the time to be a contrarian bull -- and we were. Swinger and SemiB can vouch for me.

I joined the site in 2004 and was consistently bullish on commodities (oil and metals). Stuff like BHP went up 300-500% through 2007.

Edited by beta, 03 April 2008 - 11:58 PM.

[dcengr]

(And I love how all the biggest permabears from '03-'07 are now the biggest wannabe longs -- you guys are only five years TOO LATE. LMAO)

Correction: INSIDER has the best LT track record for market calls.

I wasn't even on this board in 03... and for that matter, doesn't look like you were either.

"Mens rea."

In '03, I posted daily on a site called BullStool.com and I was MEGA-LONG COMMODITIES (e.g., AKS, BHP, RIO, RIG, etc)

There were so few bulls around that the proprietor had to shut down the site. That was the time to be a contrarian bull -- and we were. Swinger and SemiB can vouch for me.

I joined the site in 2004 and was consistently bullish on commodities (oil and metals). Stuff like BHP went up 300-500% through 2007.

Yes but what does that have to do with you saying I've been a perma bear since 03 when I wasn't even on this board til late 04?

But if its some fantasy that you want to have to reinforce your current position, please go right ahead

Btw, I'm still LT bearish

Edited by dcengr, 04 April 2008 - 12:02 AM.

[beta]

dcengr, the point is, it would be alot more helpful if you focused on TA instead of baiting people with unfounded, silly comments. (sorry NAV, you can have your thread back now ...)

Edited by beta, 04 April 2008 - 12:03 AM.

[StillLearnin]

Suffice it to say, the market consists of bullz bearz & jacka@sses.

That made me LOL.

But to answer your question Dcenger the elliot count is telling me chances look slim for another 3-4% up day tomorrow unless it starts from 2% down.

SL

[dcengr]

I did post TA. Did you not see my post where the TT folks were mega bearish near the bottom? Did you know that besides Mark, I'm one of the few people who record the daily data and run statistics on it? But that's not the only piece of confirming data. I said it yesterday, go look at Equity P/C and ISEE. And I posted a few charts showing how VIX, SMH, XLF are about to break down/up. At every critical trend juncture/major resistance, as a trader, you have to ask yourself... is everyone else thinking the same thing? If everyone was already fully short, and the market refused to go down, then who bought when they sold? People like me, perhaps? I'm not even 200% long yet. I can absorb more bears trying to sell if I wanted to. What will bears do if I bid higher than market tomorrow? Do bears have enough $ left to try and sell it down? How could they? They're already fully short. Far as I can tell, bears are at the bull's mercy at this juncture. Every piece of bad news this week has been absorbed and spit out. This is not weak hands holding longs. I don't care whether Bernanke thinks we're going into recession or not. Or whether there's another bank blowup. Or there's less employment. So what makes you think other strong hands will? I have a price target in mind, and I'll be selling when it gets there, when I feel many shorting capitulates and are forced to buy my inventory, not because of the economy is doing good, but because they have been bluffed out of their hand. Or until I think conditions change where I believe a change in plan is warranted.

[SemiBizz]

I am sector short basic materials, just a small position in SMN. As you know, I came into Tuesday after the month end flat... My bacon had been shorting Nasdaq, but the way we finished March left me with a feeling we would go higher... to recap - I felt AAPL needed to close the 146 gap, and that SMH would test it's previous high at 30.29. And of course we did not get a clean candle count trend signal on Nasdaq Monthly... So for the moment, I'm restricting my shorts to the broader indices when I think they are ready... My forecast for tomorrow is posted in a separate thread...

[TradeMark]

NAV Since you asked I am short overnight here for a scalp. My indicators are bullish, in fact very bullish, which usually means a ST pullback (probably just to make a higher low, but could always be the start of a change of trend). I am ST bear but IT bull. Looking for a ST pullback here, maybe to 1330 or so, then up, up and away. LT I have no opinion. Getting interesting TM

[jack]

Chart for a bear thread

[Apollo]

All of you shorts need to ask yourself this question:

How good are your abilities at picking tops and bottoms?

As far as I know, A-Ha is probably the best on this board for that, and he's still long. Many of you JUST DO NOT HAVE THE SKILL for consistently being profitable doing this. And you certainly don't have any business being fully short when as far as I can tell, most of you suck at top and bottom picking.

Look at my post earlier. I bet those that are fully short now are the same people who were fully short near the bottom. How many of you who were fully long at the bottom are fully short here?

I don't know why people think 4% upside days can't be followed by another 4% upside day. You had 3% downside days followed by 3% downside days. Do people really think that there's some sort of gate that limits how much can be gained over a period of days? Those back to back downside days were caused by panic. As my post yesterday said, panic also occurs to the upside.

You guys are on a hair trigger. I can feel it.

dcengr, I was fully long for most of the time from March 6 to April 2. I am now 50% in 2x bear funds. And I'll tell you why. $NYMO is over 50. This is a fairly reliable short term overbought indicator especially when SPY is under it's 200 day MA. I backtested this back to 12/1999. If you shorted SPY at the open the day after $NYMO > 50 and SPY above its 20 day MA, then covered at the open day after $NYMO < 20, you would have averaged a 1.12% gain on each trade. If you add the condition that SPY is under its 200 day MA then your average gain would be 2.99%. Although I must add this has only happened five times since 12/1999.

I'm expecting a 2 or 3 day pullback anywhere from 2% to 4% sometime before the end of next week. Then I will go long again.

Apollo