42 replies to this topic

[atlasshrugged]

Make no mistake about it...if you follow tech analysis and were bullish for Friday's action then you were beat on the river card by Barney playing 7-3 offsuite who got his trips on the river with a set of 3'''ss! the technical setup for friday was even better than March 31 if not identical to the setup for march 31 prior to the april fools rally... show me ONE piece of technical evidence that would attribute to that sell off on friday and i will give you 10 that will be the SAME as the march 31st closing price prior to the April 1st rally! the bottom line is that NEWs events have an impact on tecnical anaysis whether we like it or not...had GE come out a week earlier than i doubt we would have made it to 1389 on the spx...if ge comes out with meeting estimates then i bet we would have had an UP day on friday possible a break out because bears would have thought there would be no fundamental impact of the credit crisis going forward and we possible would have gotten a run to the 1400 area... technicall analysis is a road map...we only know whether we head to Denver and turn right to Kansas city or left to salt lake based upon the information delivered on a daily basis!!!!

[dcengr]

You're so wrong on this, but I already posted why I think you're wrong. Do yourself a favor and put all the news of the last few weeks, and categorize them based on what you think is more catastrophic. Don't look at the price action, just rate them independently if you can. Or get some outside observer who doesn't follow the stock market to do so. You will be amazed at the results.

[relax]

what if ge had come out with earnings the day that rimm released a good report what if ge had come out during after hours we can always wonder sure i agree fundamentals affect the market but imo they have a secondary effect on the market, with technicals being the key fundamentals play a role, but do not change the trend set by breadth and money flow i agree fundamentals can affect the daily move but should not change the trend it's funny how there is so much focus by fundamentalists regarding gdp growth, but there were quarters of +2 per cent growth during the 2001-2002 bear market, and equities still managed to stay in a down trend i see your point, and sure ge had an impact on trading friday, but arguing for technical analysis would one say argue that had the ge report been released on the day of the ubs write down (believe it was march 17 or some days later), then we would have rallied on the news and then we would not have sold off friday, but most probably sold off on something else later on imo the key is that the ge report did really not change the big picture, sure support points were broken, but there are always new support points ncomp had two gaps under it before friday's action - around 2202 and 2290, of course that is no reason for a sell off, but one could argue that that made a sell off inevitable

[relax]

You're so wrong on this, but I already posted why I think you're wrong.

Do yourself a favor and put all the news of the last few weeks, and categorize them based on what you think is more catastrophic. Don't look at the price action, just rate them independently if you can.

Or get some outside observer who doesn't follow the stock market to do so. You will be amazed at the results.

very good point, without looking at price actíon one would find that there is no fundamental logic between news and price action

[SemiBizz]

technical analysis is a road map...we only know whether we head to Denver and turn right to Kansas city or left to salt lake based upon the information delivered on a daily basis!!!!

Not even close... it's more like flying IFR. From signal to signal... and the thing is, some days you make it to all three... Denver, then Kansas City followed by Salt Lake, this isn't VIX 10 anymore, this is 20+.... You gotta keep those blinders on and head down in the cockpit, there are always signals, I have posted some of mine here... amazing how good of an instrument they are... Like that AAPL 146. That's was in the charts, you just had to do your homework... Everything you need to know is in those charts... You just got to study. There's always a purpose in stock movements, they are always trying to test something...

Edited by SemiBizz, 12 April 2008 - 02:57 PM.

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif


OK, I'll show you the technical evidence. You had a price rejection of the 4/1 rally. The entire move up from there was on progressively lighter volume and died on 4/7, the following day, 4/8, you had a light volume gap down doji marking the 1/2 way point of a move down, first sign of weakness followed by a progressively higher volume day on 4/9. 4/9 ended on a very symmetrical low, almost equidistant from the doji line to the high. On 4/10 we get over the 4/1 high, just barely and just barely under the volume of 4/1 for a distributed top. The market had already started to deteriorate at the close on 4/10. The next day we gapped down as I expected. Using my intraday charts, I was able to nail the top of the move on 4/10. Was that a hard one to short into? You are darn right it was, but I always have to trust my instruments until they fail me!

[atlasshrugged]

technical analysis is a road map...we only know whether we head to Denver and turn right to Kansas city or left to salt lake based upon the information delivered on a daily basis!!!!

Not even close... it's more like flying IFR. From signal to signal... and the thing is, some days you make it to all three... Denver, then Kansas City followed by Salt Lake, this isn't VIX 10 anymore, this is 20+.... You gotta keep those blinders on and head down in the cockpit, there are always signals, I have posted some of mine here... amazing how good of an instrument they are... Like that AAPL 146. That's was in the charts, you just had to do your homework... Everything you need to know is in those charts... You just got to study. There's always a purpose in stock movements, they are always trying to test something...

i bought apple at 120 and sold at 145 based upon the charts, i do my homework too much !!!

the technical setup on the march 24 peak to trough on march 31st was identical to the tecnical set up on the april 3 peak to april 9th set up...

you will not convince me otherwise!!!i have been doing this for 20 years....i am not a newbie....i can show you you tecnically how the setup was even more bullish on Thursday that march 31st!!!

the only index with mclellan divergence on April 4th was the ndx...the nyse, spx, oex were all ok, the bollinger put call volumes were more complacent on the march 24th peak to march 31st turn..


the FACT that we actually in hindsight turned on April 7th has to do with the news on April 11 concerning GE plain and simple...

March 24 could have just as easily been the end of the short term rally from Mach 17th ...

If GE preannounces on march 31st we go down just like we did on Friday and the april fools rally never happens...it was a shock to the mkt and a pivot point which technical anaylsis does not help!

tecnical analysis allows for certain pivot points just like you post pivot points on a dailly basis..whether those are hit or not is in the cards

[relax]

what if ge announces the same day ubs announces big write downs - then maybe we would have rallied big time if and if - time will always give us more support/resistance areas and more news

[milbank]

Make no mistake about it...if you follow tech analysis and were bullish for Friday's action then you were beat on the river card by Barney playing 7-3 offsuite
who got his trips on the river with a set of 3'''ss!

the technical setup for friday was even better than March 31 if not identical to the setup for march 31 prior to the april fools rally...

show me ONE piece of technical evidence that would attribute to that sell off on friday and i will give you 10 that will be the SAME as the march 31st closing price
prior to the April 1st rally!

the bottom line is that NEWs events have an impact on tecnical anaysis whether we like it or not...had GE come out a week earlier than i doubt we would have made it to 1389 on the spx...if ge comes out with meeting estimates then i bet we would have had an UP day on friday possible a break out because bears would have thought there would be no fundamental impact of the credit crisis going forward and we possible would have gotten a run to the 1400 area...

technicall analysis is a road map...we only know whether we head to Denver and turn right to Kansas city or left to salt lake based upon the information delivered on a daily basis!!!!

Which is why, for the IT trader at least, knowing the fundamentals... the context...of the field you're now playing in is important to keep in mind.
GE was a surprise because they have always been pretty straight with their expectations in the past but, GE is not light bulbs and refrigerators by in large nowadays, it's lending. GECC is the engine of GE so, ultimately, it was not surprising at all and it also gives one an understanding of the seriousness of the situation for the economy and the equity markets going forward.

[atlasshrugged]

Make no mistake about it...if you follow tech analysis and were bullish for Friday's action then you were beat on the river card by Barney playing 7-3 offsuite
who got his trips on the river with a set of 3'''ss!

the technical setup for friday was even better than March 31 if not identical to the setup for march 31 prior to the april fools rally...

show me ONE piece of technical evidence that would attribute to that sell off on friday and i will give you 10 that will be the SAME as the march 31st closing price
prior to the April 1st rally!

the bottom line is that NEWs events have an impact on tecnical anaysis whether we like it or not...had GE come out a week earlier than i doubt we would have made it to 1389 on the spx...if ge comes out with meeting estimates then i bet we would have had an UP day on friday possible a break out because bears would have thought there would be no fundamental impact of the credit crisis going forward and we possible would have gotten a run to the 1400 area...

technicall analysis is a road map...we only know whether we head to Denver and turn right to Kansas city or left to salt lake based upon the information delivered on a daily basis!!!!

Which is why, for the IT trader at least, knowing the fundamentals... the context...of the field you're now playing in is important to keep in mind.
GE was a surprise because they have always been pretty straight with their expectations in the past but, GE is not light bulbs and refrigerators by in large nowadays, it's lending. GECC is the engine of GE so, ultimately, it was not surprising at all and it also gives one an understanding of the seriousness of the situation for the economy and the equity markets going forward.

ofcourse it was surprising to the mkt!!! if it wasnt a surprise or shock to the mkt then we dont go down 300 points...the unemployment number being TERRIBLE last friday was not a surprise to the mkt even though it missed the numbers....the GE announcement was a surprise to the mkt and NOT expected plain and simple

what was a surprise is that i think they are also supposed to PReannounce if they miss that bad....they didnt so the mkt was expecting OK numbers

Edited by iron cross, 12 April 2008 - 05:40 PM.