42 replies to this topic

[atlasshrugged]

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=nasdaq&compidx=aaaaa:0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&size=2&state=9&sid=3291&style=320&time=4&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=4044&mocktick=1.gif


OK, I'll show you the technical evidence. You had a price rejection of the 4/1 rally. The entire move up from there was on progressively lighter volume and died on 4/7, the following day, 4/8, you had a light volume gap down doji marking the 1/2 way point of a move down, first sign of weakness followed by a progressively higher volume day on 4/9. 4/9 ended on a very symmetrical low, almost equidistant from the doji line to the high. On 4/10 we get over the 4/1 high, just barely and just barely under the volume of 4/1 for a distributed top. The market had already started to deteriorate at the close on 4/10. The next day we gapped down as I expected. Using my intraday charts, I was able to nail the top of the move on 4/10. Was that a hard one to short into? You are darn right it was, but I always have to trust my instruments until they fail me!

i strongly disagree!!! look at the accumulative volume on March 20 prior to the gap up on march 24!!!! I was long then!!!

its identical to the accumulative volume on april 10thh which should have been a gap up on april 11th!!!!

the accumulative volume on march 20th and april 10th was a stronger set up then the NON accumulation on march 31st prior to the gap up (i was short then)


technically April 10th was a stronger SET up than march 31st!!!! it was the NEWS that determined the outcome!!!!

also the sell off from march 24 to march 31st was basically the same as the sell off from april 4th to the 10th!!!





comments welcome...you cant tell me that that was not accumulative volume on april 10th and march 20th!!!

Edited by iron cross, 12 April 2008 - 05:51 PM.

[U.F.O.]

I think the market digests the GE "miss" soon enough and then prices continue to climb the notorious "wall of worry". If this "collapse" of capitalistic, western civilization as we know it because of sub-prime and the associative credit crunch is defined by GE having a 5% lower net profit? Bears have a lot of things to worry about going forward. A lot. U.F.O.

[milbank]

Make no mistake about it...if you follow tech analysis and were bullish for Friday's action then you were beat on the river card by Barney playing 7-3 offsuite
who got his trips on the river with a set of 3'''ss!

the technical setup for friday was even better than March 31 if not identical to the setup for march 31 prior to the april fools rally...

show me ONE piece of technical evidence that would attribute to that sell off on friday and i will give you 10 that will be the SAME as the march 31st closing price
prior to the April 1st rally!

the bottom line is that NEWs events have an impact on tecnical anaysis whether we like it or not...had GE come out a week earlier than i doubt we would have made it to 1389 on the spx...if ge comes out with meeting estimates then i bet we would have had an UP day on friday possible a break out because bears would have thought there would be no fundamental impact of the credit crisis going forward and we possible would have gotten a run to the 1400 area...

technicall analysis is a road map...we only know whether we head to Denver and turn right to Kansas city or left to salt lake based upon the information delivered on a daily basis!!!!

Which is why, for the IT trader at least, knowing the fundamentals... the context...of the field you're now playing in is important to keep in mind.
GE was a surprise because they have always been pretty straight with their expectations in the past but, GE is not light bulbs and refrigerators by in large nowadays, it's lending. GECC is the engine of GE so, ultimately, it was not surprising at all and it also gives one an understanding of the seriousness of the situation for the economy and the equity markets going forward.

ofcourse it was surprising to the mkt!!! if it wasnt a surprise or shock to the mkt then we dont go down 300 points...the unemployment number being TERRIBLE last friday was not a surprise to the mkt even though it missed the numbers....the GE announcement was a surprise to the mkt and NOT expected plain and simple

what was a surprise is that i think they are also supposed to PReannounce if they miss that bad....they didnt so the mkt was expecting OK numbers

I should have been more specific. It didn't surprise me.

[milbank]

I think the market digests the GE "miss" soon enough and then prices continue to climb the notorious "wall of worry". If this "collapse" of capitalistic, western civilization as we know it because of sub-prime and the associative credit crunch is defined by GE having a 5% lower net profit? Bears have a lot of things to worry about going forward. A lot.

U.F.O.

We are still early in the game. This is only the first full quarter of earnings results since the beginning of the defaults in the fall. I'd say GE dropping over 12% in one day showed an auspicious start. You put "collapse" in quotes so I am assuming you are referring to my use of the word. I've never said there will be a "collapse of western civilization." I have said we are having a "collapse of the capital markets" and/or a "collapse of the economy." You seem to have a habit of mischaraterizing what I say in order to hold on to your beliefs U.F.O.

[atlasshrugged]

you mention that it was hard to short into on april 10th...i agree it was an extremely low probablility trade similar to a barney who plays 7 -3 offsuite and wins on the river against a guy with pocket aces.... but i think i mentioned that

[SemiBizz]

you may remember that based on that month end on Nasdaq not getting the 5th red candle and plus the fact AAPL had not tested 146 was the reason I came in flat for 4/1. For me it was not out of the blue. My instruments worked fine there and on the 10th.

Here u go, from 3/31 post:

Well, pretty much what I thought here today. No, I did not put on a short yet. I'm going to give the operators the benefit of the doubt. See, there's a couple things I'm looking at... AAPL still hasn't closed that gap at 146. GOOG closes over the $138 cliff. SMH can still test that last high on the hourly and daily... I'm not going fishing in those Nasdaq waters here, even if RIMM bombs, that's good for AAPL. IBM should have a rough day, considering the Federal Gov't is one of their largest customers. Of course IBM is now an Indian company so I am sure there are other contractors based here that could replace them.

I have to move out of technology, because the charts are telling me that Nasdaq can test lows here but it's not as weak as S&P and DJIA so that's where I need to go... My gut says to stay out until volume arrives, so I may not do anything for a couple of days....

Edited by SemiBizz, 12 April 2008 - 06:17 PM.

[SemiBizz]

I can show you right where I got short... at 14:00 on Thursday on this 15 min you can see it, we had volume off a top, which is what I look for... then on greater volume on the 3rd candle over we couldn't break the high. That's right where I jumped on it... The next candle breaks the previous volume high on 1/2 the volume and that's where you set your entry with a stop at the high of the day... low risk, high reward.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[U.F.O.]

The defaults didn't start in the fall. This sub-prime default crisis started in late 2006.

Sub-Prime Defaults

What's the definition of "the end of western civilization as we know it"? If you collapse the capital markets and the economy, what do you have left? Hillary Clinton? I think my characterization of your position was spot on. You may not like it, but I was accurate. The word "collapse" should be reserved for situations where it "definitely" applies. Like maybe the Roman Empire. The jury's still out on this one.

U.F.O.

[milbank]

I can show you right where I got short... at 14:00 on Thursday on this 15 min you can see it, we had volume off a top, which is what I look for... then on greater volume on the 3rd candle over we couldn't break the high. That's right where I jumped on it... The next candle breaks the previous volume high on 1/2 the volume and that's where you set your entry with a stop at the high of the day... low risk, high reward.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

I saw something similar on a smaller scale beginning around 11 to 11:15 and got out on the 11:45 signal. Yours was more of sure thing.

[milbank]

The defaults didn't start in the fall. This sub-prime default crisis started in late 2006.

Sub-Prime Defaults

What's the definition of "the end of western civilization as we know it"? If you collapse the capital markets and the economy, what do you have left? Hillary Clinton? I think my characterization of your position was spot on. You may not like it, but I was accurate. The word "collapse" should be reserved for situations where it "definitely" applies. Like maybe the Roman Empire. The jury's still out on this one.

U.F.O.

Actually, it goes back on my radar further than that but, the stock markets' reaction to it...and we were talking about the stock markets here...began in the fall of 2007.

http://finance.yahoo...ource=undefined

As far as "collapse" goes, using your "definition"...

Rome did not collapse in a day.

Edited by milbank, 12 April 2008 - 06:33 PM.