33 replies to this topic

[dougie]

3 0f 1 and 5 of 1? Huh? Got chart? or did you mistype those dates?

[senorBS]

still looking for this decline to end the 1st few days in may. seasonal charts are established including bear markets. most of golds trading life has taken place during extended bear markets. @ some point i expect to see different seasonals get expressed. in 06 a high in may for example. patience here will prove wise. the 850 #was the high in 80 holding that is very positive. we are building cause
dharma

Hola Dharma, I generally agree with you about using the 1980 high as new support as this pullback tests that area. My only concern is that the final spike to the mid 800's was so short lived that its really sort of hard to have a firm price level to "retest", I think using the entire 730-850 area is actually reasonable, there were two recovery highs near 730 in Feb and Sep of 1980.

BSing away

Senor

[stubaby]

dharma:

I'm looking for 800-850 for support, but a quick spike below 800 wouldn't surprise me.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...amp;a=135558393

stubaby

[dharma]

still looking for this decline to end the 1st few days in may. seasonal charts are established including bear markets. most of golds trading life has taken place during extended bear markets. @ some point i expect to see different seasonals get expressed. in 06 a high in may for example. patience here will prove wise. the 850 #was the high in 80 holding that is very positive. we are building cause
dharma

Hola Dharma, I generally agree with you about using the 1980 high as new support as this pullback tests that area. My only concern is that the final spike to the mid 800's was so short lived that its really sort of hard to have a firm price level to "retest", I think using the entire 730-850 area is actually reasonable, there were two recovery highs near 730 in Feb and Sep of 1980.

BSing away

Senor

of course the area that you suggest is a high probability. from here, i am thinking 850 holds, but we shall see. the food inflation is hitting the news w/the hoarding of food. rice in the far east is a staple. and the supply is down . there is a firm backdrop for gold, however it does get taken behind the woodshed periodically. dharma

[dharma]

i just want to add that rsi 's remain very low, i dont think the market could have a powerful down move, w/rsi in such a low area. in other words, if we go down from here, the rsi are pretty much oversold. yes, it could get more oversold. and it will but i dont think it will be to the extent to see a move below 850 just my 2c. dharma

[swanstkdh]

I am looking at the whole bull market for the shares especially the juniors

[dougie]

I am looking at the whole bull market for the shares especially the juniors

yes, i got that but those dates are consolidations not impulses

[lhslancers3270]

I believe the high London Price Fix was 850 we might have reached 875 in NY. No matter really. Seems as if the $XAU:$GOLD ratio players forgot one thing. This might be a tempting place to add to your share position in what is nearly historical lows. I think we have gone as low as 16. If Gold and the XAU decline at the same rate does not the ratio remain intact? I think a move below 395 HUI implies a return to the base. 270. There are supports between 270-395 but the trend on the miners is most certainly now down. Fundamentally the market is on firm footing but don't tell that to the holders of the mining shares. Let's see if we don't get a good bounce off the projected May time turn lows 2nd-11th. The correction is only 5 weeks old.

[dougie]

what trend is now certainly down: the St, It or LT trend?

[dharma]

i dont think that todays slap of gold is coincidence, as tomorrow the fed lowers .25. gold, xau, hui are all sporting hourly divergences. or the rsi has not made a new low for this move,i am watching and waiting to see if this happens, if it does then i will wait for divergences to occur. on the dailies for gold they are there. essentially, i am looking for lost momo. the trend long and intermediate are still up. this is just a correction in a bull market. it is the nature of this market to have large corrections. reminder , in 76 gold corrected 50% and it changed nothing. they will lose control of this market. i expect this correction to be over this week. the miners, ie last week nem reported good earnings. the juniors who are in need of financing are having trouble getting loans from the banks. banks are tightening their lending practices period. as supplies for the majors become tight, the takeovers will start. although, i am from the land of the margarita, i dont drink. so i will join senor in watching this market. this is a great opportunity, which i will not let slip away. the backdrop is very bullish for the metals, the banking system is under duress. the subprime problem is huge. w/food and energy getting some momo, the metals will join the party. i expect the next wave down in the dollar to be breathtaking, unfortunately. and the same for the commodity complex. wave 5s are the big expressed ones. dharma