34 replies to this topic

[phineas_gage]

I'm just trying to forget everything that's going on a bit and just trade the charts for some scratch short term. Look at a msft daily and notice the uptrend line from the march 3 low: today's low of 28.45 sits right on it. Also notice the 50d SMA at 28.72 and just peeking its head up. The stop is only 20 cents below at 28.40. Putcall is only .72, which is a bit of a "hound of the baskervilles" signal imho. Just a thought

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Too much of a volume build going down here, quality of volume so far today going down... I see 27 on MSFT. Looks like yesterday's volume will be broken and of course price has already been crushed.

Falling knife... go for it.

[SemiBizz]

I rather have a sideways knife... like this one.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[beta]

Bounce to 30

[phineas_gage]

like I said, Im talking about a chop. A stop $.25 away. It could take off and you could ride it to 32 with the right headline. But for what I'm looking at (120d daily candles, %Ds, RSI, front month put/call), it implies a favorable ST risk reward.

Edited by phineas_gage, 29 April 2008 - 11:44 AM.

[SemiBizz]

No bounce until the volume dries up Beta... normally.

[phineas_gage]

I'd venture that MSFT could hit 29.4 or so by this afternoon. Obviously I'd need a headline here or there, but again, I don't mind hanging out in this fine, dividend paying blue chip for a few days if it wants to go up.

You might like CIT. A narrowing bullish wedge in the ST (like the last 5 days), that fills into a 2 pt. gap. my parabolic stop has clicked up to 10.37 from the 10.35 I bought it at this am. I got lucky on that px as I had the limit in preopen. a purely mechanical trade. That's whats workin for me right now.

But careful there. spec money only, and only carefully overnite.

No bounce until the volume dries up Beta... normally.

Edited by phineas_gage, 29 April 2008 - 11:58 AM.

[beta]

Based on fundamentals, I like MSFT as a hedge against short positions (in this case, QID). Storyline: when everything melts down, MSFT = last tech standing and acquisition costs become cheaper. I still think 30, and then 27/25.

Edited by beta, 29 April 2008 - 12:14 PM.

[SemiBizz]

I suspect your reasoning is fundamental, that's fine, but that is not what I do...

Now I can see what the street thinks is about to happen, but there's no technical verification yet there either...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[SemiBizz]

I suspect your reasoning is fundamental, that's fine, but that is not what I do...

Now I can see what the street thinks is about to happen, but there's no technical verification yet there either...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

There's your technical verification.