64 replies to this topic

[NAV]

price is right!

I am not even expressing an opinion...only making a neutral observation about price vs. a downtrend line that has failed until proven otherwise.

Yes, price is always right. Current price is always a fact. But tell me how does that help me make money. One has to extrapolate the future price movement based on the current price structure and place their bets. That's what is gonna make me money. Now tell me should i place my bets on the downside or upside to make money over the next few hours. If you ask me, read my hourly sell post, where my system unequivocally advocates a sell. That sell is a signal based on reading the current facts (price, EMAs, momentum) and projects a highs odds future direction.

[hiker]

NAV - we have had this similar discussion before..last time I remember was in 2007 when you were looking long near 1525, if memory serves. what is so hard about considering that the high odds trade here is to buy a successful kissback to the failed d/t line and perhaps stay in that trade till July or longer? it is just one scenario....that is the best answer I can provide to answer your question. it is a trade based on the current fact, till that fact changes..I have no idea whether the now broken d/t line will fail upon full kissback if any, do you?

Edited by hiker, 02 May 2008 - 01:24 PM.

[beta]

Stop 1412.2

[SemiBizz]

If they can make a bottom here in the next 15 min and make it stick they are fine, if it comes after 2:40 they are toast.... signal on the low on the DJIA is to retest...

Edited by SemiBizz, 02 May 2008 - 01:27 PM.

[NAV]

NAV - we have had this similar discussion before..last time I remember was in 2007 when you were looking long near 1525, if memory serves.

what is so hard about considering that the high odds trade here is to buy a successful kissback to the failed d/t line and perhaps stay in that trade till July or longer? it is just one scenario....that is the best answer I can provide to answer your question. it is a trade based on the current fact, till that fact changes..I have no idea whether the now broken d/t line will fail upon full kissback if any, do you?

Got you. So your buy point is the backkiss of the DT line and stop a close below the DT line.

[beta]

If they can make a bottom here in the next 15 min and make it stick they are fine, if it comes after 2:40 they are toast.... signal on the low on the DJIA is to retest...

1402 looks like a good reversal tgt

[SemiBizz]

Mkt knows something we don't know yet... anybody else read that in the tape ? ? ?

[SemiBizz]

If they can make a bottom here in the next 15 min and make it stick they are fine, if it comes after 2:40 they are toast.... signal on the low on the DJIA is to retest...

1402 looks like a good reversal tgt

1397 your next hourly support.

[hiker]

NAV..or certainly watch closely if now short ... when that broken d/t line receives kissback..does it remain broken or do we push below it on a closing-basis in some timeframe of chart importance that provides confirmation it will provide sustained R again?

Edited by hiker, 02 May 2008 - 01:37 PM.

[NAV]

Mkt knows something we don't know yet... anybody else read that in the tape ? ? ?

Semi,

What exactly are you seeing on the tape that concerns you that much ?