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The Kindler, Gentler U.F.O.


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#1 U.F.O.

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Posted 03 May 2008 - 06:37 PM

I've been told that my title earlier was provocative, the "going broke" thing. There apparently are a lot of people here who believe religiously in volume analysis and won't stand for any challenge to that belief system. Essentially, I got drilled for the "tone" of my post. Sorry...I guess when you feel strongly about a subject, your tone increases. The bottom line for me is volume analysis doesn't work, except at market turns. If it does for you...great. If alien kidnappings work for you...great. If the Loch Ness monster works for you...great. Whatever helps your trading.

U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
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#2 SemiBizz

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Posted 03 May 2008 - 06:45 PM

Don't feel threatened by the Volume Aliens.... after all we are here to...

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Now, how to cook it? BBQ, French Fried or Baked... :lol:
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#3 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 03 May 2008 - 06:47 PM

As I said, it works great for me, every day, or most days, anyway. In fact, it was working so well that I contemplated halting publication and just trading my own account during the night session. I figured that would jinx it, but seriously, I thought long and hard. At least my volume analysis on the ES has been gold overnight. It's also saved me about 20 bad KTT trades over the past two years and made me pass on about 3 good ones. Mark

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#4 U.F.O.

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Posted 03 May 2008 - 06:48 PM

I bet I've seen that show 10 times. I'm recording the original "The Thing" with James Arness as the monster as we type. U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~

#5 Jnavin

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Posted 03 May 2008 - 06:55 PM

"volume doesn't work, except at turning points..." Huge exception, UFO, because of timeframe considerations: turning points can come hourly, daily, weekly, monthly...but nevermind. I don't really want to go there. Keep up the otherwise good work.

#6 mss

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Posted 03 May 2008 - 07:03 PM

:) I confess I do not understand all the effects of using volume, and not being a day trader am in no position to comment on volumes usefulness. However I do use a combination of volume and price change to help identify potential trend changes. Below is a chart I have posted from time to time on the S W Board when I thought the indicator direction was noteworthy. At the present it is suggesting a consolidation period. YES, price can rise or fall during this period. A direction change will be very telling, even if late. [attachment=7031:volprice.png] mss
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#7 U.F.O.

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Posted 03 May 2008 - 07:10 PM

I think I get the problem. Most of the objections to my volume analysis are from traders who trade in a MUCH shorter timeframe that I do. To them...volume may be king. I put a position on for 2-3 months sometimes and don't worry about day-to-day squiggles.

U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~

#8 dcengr

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Posted 03 May 2008 - 07:23 PM

I think I get the problem. Most of the objections to my volume analysis are from traders who trade in a MUCH shorter timeframe that I do. To them...volume may be king. I put a position on for 2-3 months sometimes and don't worry about day-to-day squiggles.

U.F.O.


Yup every indicator has its own time frame where its optimum.

For instance, you can't use AAII data on a day trade.

I've found volume works great for VST trades. You use the bull/bear spring stuff and its awesome for hours or swing trades (1-2 days).
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?

#9 U.F.O.

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Posted 03 May 2008 - 08:03 PM

OK dgengr. I agree. But here's the question. Why did I have to divine this truth? All these a'holes who have been blasting me...why haven't they said..."U.F.O. I think our timeframe is the difference."

U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~

#10 marco

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Posted 03 May 2008 - 08:15 PM

I think I get the problem. Most of the objections to my volume analysis are from traders who trade in a MUCH shorter timeframe that I do. To them...volume may be king. I put a position on for 2-3 months sometimes and don't worry about day-to-day squiggles.

I'm not sure how big of an issue timeframe is.

Semi uses weekly, daily and intraday charts and while he may do mainly ST trades, he does use weekly and daily candles. So obviously the larger timeframes are important.

I think volume is important, but I confess to not getting all that I can out of Semi's analysis since I can never figure out what candle he's using on those freakin Bigcharts charts! I say we should all write a note to Semi's spouse/SO to give Semi a subscription to Stockcharts for his birthday. Then he can annotate the candles on his charts. :D

But I'm starting to use some of his analysis in my own swing trades, and it does seem to be true that high-volume candles in the past act like price magnets in the future. It's an interesting and novel concept and seems to have a lot of merit. I'm forever indebted to Semi to pointing it out. :)