3 replies to this topic

[mss]

Well it appears that the short term trend has changed to up. There are still many conflicting indicators, but more are turning, or reducing the rate of decent. From a daily stand point the jury is still out and until 1402 -1409 is broken we are in a trading range with potential to break into new lows. Breaking to new lows is at a lower probability now than a few weeks ago. The most likely price range is 1416 ( if we break 1409) to 1344. Going out on the "extreme limb" here, and go with 1441 - 1298 if it goes wild.

The first weekly chart indicates that MOMENTUM then PRICE and now VXO have all turned up, as indicated by the GREEN arrows. Although still weak, suggesting strength is building.

You can see this was posted on April 19, and no much has changed. Yes it traded above 1416, but on a closing bases 1413 and that IS GOOD enough for government work.
Going to hedge a little here, top out 1435 (and this is very if'e) with the bottom 1337 with a fail safe at 1258.
These should update.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$ONE:$VXO&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&i=p38053969550&a=130840936&r=864.png

This suggests very weak and a steep decline is not far off.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&i=p19015579638&a=134521905&r=692.png

Sometimes closing price tells a truer story as to trend.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p38250671926&a=116044349&r=10.png

This suggests decline also.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&i=p26043907545&a=115278839&r=957.png

Here is the price projection chart some of you wanted updated.



Best to all, and comments welcome. It would really be very nice to get some comments, do you agree, disagree, is there a better way to analysis this stuff? You step up to bat here.
mss

[Bob-C]

Well it appears that the short term trend has changed to up. There are still many conflicting indicators, but more are turning, or reducing the rate of decent. From a daily stand point the jury is still out and until 1402 -1409 is broken we are in a trading range with potential to break into new lows. Breaking to new lows is at a lower probability now than a few weeks ago. The most likely price range is 1416 ( if we break 1409) to 1344. Going out on the "extreme limb" here, and go with 1441 - 1298 if it goes wild.

The first weekly chart indicates that MOMENTUM then PRICE and now VXO have all turned up, as indicated by the GREEN arrows. Although still weak, suggesting strength is building.

You can see this was posted on April 19, and no much has changed. Yes it traded above 1416, but on a closing bases 1413 and that IS GOOD enough for government work.
Going to hedge a little here, top out 1435 (and this is very if'e) with the bottom 1337 with a fail safe at 1258.
These should update.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$ONE:$VXO&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&i=p38053969550&a=130840936&r=864.png

This suggests very weak and a steep decline is not far off.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&i=p19015579638&a=134521905&r=692.png

Sometimes closing price tells a truer story as to trend.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p38250671926&a=116044349&r=10.png

This suggests decline also.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&i=p26043907545&a=115278839&r=957.png

Here is the price projection chart some of you wanted updated.



Best to all, and comments welcome. It would really be very nice to get some comments, do you agree, disagree, is there a better way to analysis this stuff? You step up to bat here.
mss

Hi MSS, thanks for your excellent work and insights above and for all your other excellent Swing Wave and FF posts. Keep up your good work!

Cheers,

Bob-C

[marco]

Nice job as always mss. You've done a great job covering all the bases. Am curious if you've done any longer-term charts of the pivots. They look like a great trend & turn indicator but it's hard to know for sure without seeing some kind of historical context. Like maybe the entire 2000-2003 bear market?!! Okay, maybe too ambitious. At any rate, I commented on this chart last time, and it's still intriguing.

[mss]

Because the charts above update I will only add one new one. They also have reference points.

Not a lot has changed from the last post. I have expanded the range some, and indicate the top and bottom two.
Many indicators suggest a bottom has been formed. The common accepted weekly EMAs have not yet crossed to the positive side. The 5/21 has, but not many follow it. IMO, we will chop around between the top two HZ lines for the next week and could easily decline to test the lower support of 1340ish. A close above 1453 would change the whole outlook.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p26267833152&a=139896240&r=2216.png

Comments welcome,
mss
429

Edited by mss, 17 May 2008 - 02:54 PM.