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Crude Oil Hurst Cycles


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#21 SilentOne

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Posted 31 December 2008 - 12:30 PM

I added to my energy position here in this week buying initial positions in USO and UGA. Patience with this trade in 2009 will be rewarded IMO. Happy New Year! cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#22 SilentOne

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Posted 06 January 2009 - 10:05 AM

I took some profits this morning on USO and some of the HOU.TO position as oil is above $50. This is almost a 50% rise of its lows. I will hold the remaining positions in HOU.TO and UGA for 1/2 the 23 week trading cycle. I will be buying the pullback quite aggressively at some point. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#23 spratman

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Posted 06 January 2009 - 10:28 AM

I took some profits this morning on USO and some of the HOU.TO position as oil is above $50. This is almost a 50% rise of its lows. I will hold the remaining positions in HOU.TO and UGA for 1/2 the 23 week trading cycle. I will be buying the pullback quite aggressively at some point.

cheers,

john


Nice trading John... Congrats!!!

#24 SilentOne

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Posted 06 January 2009 - 02:54 PM

hi spratman, Commodities are at an interesting juncture. I have also played the grains recently via HAU.TO. I took half my profits there yesterday which appears to have been premature. I'll post more on grains in another thread. I also think a position in DBC is a conservative way to bet on commodities in the coming year. So I am long there too. Even though crude is overcooked on a daily chart, I will add back some USO before day's end. And then buy more on more significant pullbacks. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#25 mss

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Posted 07 January 2009 - 11:32 AM

:) Hi John, Thanks for the comments and posts. Good to see you active. Best, Scott
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#26 hiker

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Posted 07 January 2009 - 05:31 PM

hi John,

you still like USO buy on the dips idea?

just curious following today's 43.7M share day ending at 10-11% red.

I actually am long DUG, and that is one motivation for my question..some DUG chart updates reside at the end of the DUG thread here -

http://www.websiteto...618?forum=30657

best to you, John!


Steve

#27 SilentOne

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Posted 07 January 2009 - 06:44 PM

hi Steve,

you still like USO buy on the dips idea?


What's your trading timeframe? I did not expect the decline today to be so sharp so I can foresee a severe retest of the lows is likely now. CCI (100) broke above the -100 level on this latest rally, the first occasion since Sept. So there is a strong chance that the decline from the summer is over. I bought a little USO back at the close (33.35) and will add some more by late next week.

I would have preferred to see USO and crude put in a higher high above the Dec. highs on this rally. The shorter term cycle to watch now is watch a 14 day period. Crude was in its 9th day today off the pre-Christmas low. So I expect at least a ST bounce and then another low late next week. A collapse below $40 suggests the larger cycles have not bottomed and I would have to wait for something bullish technically to get really long here.

Personally I would only look to go long here in this market and increase that position once the downtrend line from the summer is taken out. Hope that helps.

cheers,

john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#28 Lysis

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Posted 08 January 2009 - 09:22 AM

John, I agree with you in the belief that we will do some retesting of the lows, but I'm seeing a bottom between 30 and 31 on USO. I'm going all in if we break 29 on an intraday basis.

#29 SilentOne

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Posted 09 January 2009 - 11:15 AM

hi Lysis,

Hurst would be proud to see his work here and your avatar.

I referred to a 14 day cycle for crude that should be observed now. We are heading down into the next 14 day low which should arrive by late next week. However, there is an astro turn date for crude on Jan. 23. So this test of the lows could extend into that time period. From a short term trading viewpoint, I'd look to get long crude when the short term cycles are due for bottoms, they being the 14 day, and 56 day (5.5 week) cycles. I have to explain this and the risk of this trade.

The massive decline from the summer has blown apart the trading cycles for crude to a large degree. And as major cycles are due for bottoms, the cycles normally extend in length or at least become distorted. This is when I would keep a focus on ST cycles and the 14 day cycle period. I am fairly confident of the phasing shown below and the unknown is how the 11 week and larger cycles will act upon price out of this next low. I'm bullish and looking for a long, but prepared to be wrong.

Posted Image

It is the larger cycles that give me this bullish bias. They are now overdue here early in the year, and obviously they have extended as can be expected with the last few months waterfall decline. As we saw with the gold sector, the major cycles were due but extended in time. The same seems to be occuring here.

Posted Image

I will have to take another look at FLDs and the interaction with recent price action. I have retained a small position in HOU.TO and will look to trade long later this month. There is no doubt that oil is extremely economically sensitive to the general stock market and news flow of the weakening economy. Sentiment will turn at some point and this will prove to be a very good market to trade long. Patience for a good entry will be worth the wait.

best regards,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 09 January 2009 - 11:17 AM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#30 LeroyB3

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Posted 10 January 2009 - 03:35 PM

I would recommend watching SU instead of USO for price appreciation potential. Complex bottom H&S currently forming, but has not been triggered yet. 22 Week FLD (FLD = 12) break projects to $32.12 incidentally almost exactly closing the weekly gap from October 2008. A break of the complex bottom on the daily projects to around the $36/share area. SU still appears to be at overbought levels on the daily so you can probably get better prices closer to the end of next week. I have SU 10 days along from last cycle low on 12/24/2008 and the main cycle I like to watch usually lasts around 23 days. Best, LB