47 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

hi LeroyB3,

We all choose our preferred poison. The thing is I don't want to take that much equity exposure when trading the commodities long going forward. Not worth the stock specific-risk in this environment IMO. It is all about trades this year, long and short.

I had a look at Suncor and do watch this stock. Short term there is risk as there is a potential top forming here that looks oddly similar to the one in Aug. 2008. A reverse H&S? It was sporting the same pattern in August and look what happened. Those MAs better hold.

The other thing that is disconcerting for oilsands projects is the current and near term price for crude. Many are saying that Suncor and the like will not survive with oil below $75. I don't personally know what that magic number is crude, nor do I care to make that wager. But I believe the market is currently trying to decide on this.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

BTW, there was an error on the chart posted Friday. It should have read 14 and 28 day (not 56 day as shown) cycles as well as the 11 week (56 days).



cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 10 January 2009 - 08:28 PM.

[SilentOne]

Went long USO, UGA and HOU.TO at the open. An initial position taken here as the 14 day cycle approaches a bottom. cheers, john

[Lysis]

Went long USO, UGA and HOU.TO at the open. An initial position taken here as the 14 day cycle approaches a bottom.

cheers,

john

I'm with you, John. I took half a position yesterday. We'll see how this plays out.

[SilentOne]

hi Lysis, Oil pretty much has to starting rally from here on IMO. UGA the gasoline etf is looking OK. I added CNQ, and some energy canroys (AET.UN, COS.UN) here at the lows today. They will probably end up being ST trades, but I'll give it a whirl. The general market is looking rough, but let's see where we get to on crude. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 14 January 2009 - 02:49 PM.

[SilentOne]

Took profits in CNQ, AET.UN and USO, UGA. Not convincing here and trend is very uncertain. I have a toe in here still, but I'll sit back and wait. We need a solid up day to confirm another swing long. The longer this consolidation drags on, the more likely it fails and rolls to the downside. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 16 January 2009 - 10:24 AM.

[stubaby]

Took profits in CNQ, AET.UN and USO, UGA. Not convincing here and trend is very uncertain. I have a toe in here still, but I'll sit back and wait. We need a solid up day to confirm another swing long. The longer this consolidation drags on, the more likely it fails and rolls to the downside.

cheers,

john

John:

I agree - WTIC looks like ultimatley needs more downside ($28-30), however, individual stock charts don't look that bad - will resolve one way or the other and should be buy of a lifetime!



stubaby

[SilentOne]

Crude can't get a rally going here to change the near term outlook. A top here at in the current 14 day cycle would not be encouraging for bulls. The previous high needs to be taken out now shortly, otherwise price is heading lower into Feb. I'm flat crude and energies.



cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

Crude is coming into its next 14 day cycle low. I expect a rally, but if the phasing below is correct, it will be muted. If USO breaks below 27.73 (Dec. low) with volume, then I would stand back as the low is likely to come with the next 14 day cycle at the earliest. If however, the cycles shown are forming a nest of lows here, then we will rally hard in crude. Price would have to attack its previous two highs for signs of this being the bottom. Day trading USO long for now. I should mention, there are some major astro signatures for the equity markets right here. But the next major turns for oil are Feb. 13-16 and then early March. So a turn here for a low would be early and thus far most of the astro dates have been highs since last summer. I also noted the test of the Dec. low at 27.73 came with higher volume. This suggests more work needs to be done forming the low here. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 05 February 2009 - 09:47 PM.

[SilentOne]

A high volume test at support coming at a 14 day low. This is NOT a reversal (up). cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 06 February 2009 - 03:22 PM.