36 replies to this topic

[NAV]

SPX 1324 cracked and IT trend turns down in my book. So 5/19 is no longer a ST top (which i thought it was), but an IT top. First support on the weekly comes around 1280-90 area. So any bounces here (20-40 point varieties) are a short in my book. Yesterdays break below 6/12 divergent setup, was a harbinger of 1324 to be taken out. To even get short term bullish, we need another divergent setup with price confirmation. And bear markets are tough. Just when you get the confirmation , price takes a plunge. Who said "sell your buys in a bear trend " Was that Mark ? Bear markets are tough to play. You gotta short the spikes and hold your nose. When price goes against you further, you gotta close your eyes. When they further squeeze your nads, shutdown the computer. That's the way to make money. Lol. If you wait for confirmation, it comes 20 points lower. By then it's time for the boyz to play the squeeze game again. I have moved to 10-min charts now.

[ogm]

SPX 1324 cracked and IT trend turns down in my book. So 5/19 is no longer a ST top (which i thought it was), but an IT top. First support on the weekly comes around 1280-90 area. So any bounces here (20-40 point varieties) are a short in my book. Yesterdays break below 6/12 divergent setup, was a harbinger of 1324 to be taken out. To even get short term bullish, we need another divergent setup with price confirmation. And bear markets are tough. Just when you get the confirmation , price takes a plunge. Who said "sell your buys in a bear trend " Was that Mark ?

Bear markets are tough to play. You gotta short the spikes and hold your nose. When price goes against you further, you gotta close your eyes. When they further squeeze your nads, shutdown the computer. That's the way to make money. Lol. If you wait for confirmation, it comes 20 points lower. By then it's time for the boyz to play the squeeze game again. I have moved to 10-min charts now.

What he said

[beta]

good stuff, NAV -- i like the way you roll w/ the punches. and you're right, bear markets are tough to trade, even when you're short !

Edited by beta, 20 June 2008 - 10:38 AM.

[arbman]

Well I said that the decline would trigger a bunch of buy signals two weeks ago and there was going to be another low to be bought. We are going completely opposite here, it will be interesting to see whether I will be proven right one more time... I hope people will respect the cycles better because I also called the May top as the IT top and I am calling this as the IT bottom bearing one more week of volatility... BTW, funnymentally, Fed will not raise the rates, they won't even mention about the inflation!

[MacRo]

well said NAV, this is a tough psoition to manage, particularly for those who don't hold multi-week positions and are trying to get an entry. Stochastics and intraday SPX momo seems to imply a ST bottom here before we roll over again. I expected SPX to test its neckline circa 1375 prior to today's action - the fact that it hasn't come yet may mean its in store for us next week (and would make for a great entry/add point). I would be surprised if they didn't try to shake out a few weak-handed shorts before recommencing the flush Keep an eye on financials. Outside of MER they should have been weaker today, the fact that they weren't lends credence to a temporary constructive opportunity. WaMu in the green? Get out of here...

Edited by MacRo, 20 June 2008 - 10:41 AM.

[SemiBizz]

SPX 1324 cracked and IT trend turns down in my book. So 5/19 is no longer a ST top (which i thought it was), but an IT top. First support on the weekly comes around 1280-90 area. So any bounces here (20-40 point varieties) are a short in my book. Yesterdays break below 6/12 divergent setup, was a harbinger of 1324 to be taken out. To even get short term bullish, we need another divergent setup with price confirmation. And bear markets are tough. Just when you get the confirmation , price takes a plunge. Who said "sell your buys in a bear trend " Was that Mark ?

Bear markets are tough to play. You gotta short the spikes and hold your nose. When price goes against you further, you gotta close your eyes. When they further squeeze your nads, shutdown the computer. That's the way to make money. Lol. If you wait for confirmation, it comes 20 points lower. By then it's time for the boyz to play the squeeze game again. I have moved to 10-min charts now.

Now we are on the same page... welcome aboard...

(posted 6/16)

We're building cause to test the low of the last day of extreme volume at 1295 when we break out of this cluster area, we may or may not see a test of 1371,77,83 or 1390, but probably no higher... There will be initial support this time in the 1320's on the way down, but we could see that break down intraday below 1311... if we close under 1311, the 1295 test is in the bag...

[NAV]

good stuff -- i like the way you roll w/ the punches, NAV.

and you're right, bear markets are tough to trade, even when you're short !

We'll i don't know about other traders here. Cuz only few really show how they trade this stuff. Either there are scalpers, who cannot really post there trades, or on the other side of the spectrum there are positional traders who show up once in a few months (and rest of the time post fundamental stuff). For the one's who trade in between these timeframes, it's a tough game. Look at the NDX yestarday. That was a beauty ! I got a buy confirmation on 10- min at 1955. I placed my orders and the darn Nasdaq options market went down. Then we rallied hard and turned the hourly up. It was friggin' hard to turn bearish at least on NDX, although SPX looked sluggish. If you have trading discipline and are a trend trader, you coudn't short the top yesterday on NDX. Today's gap-down was 30 points from the high and the hourly was still marginally up. By the time the hourly turned down, there's another 30 point drop. Now would you short a 60 point drop. Heck no ! Would buy the darn thing ?. Heck no, you buy it and it turns out to be a trend day with the nasty negative breadth plurality.

So what do i do ? Just daytrade the lower timeframes like 5-min and 10-min and collect some change. I hate trading these lower timeframes cuz it stressfull to continually watch the tape. I would rather prefer trading the hourly, when i just need to watch the market only a couple of times an hour and relax rest of the time browsing, posting on TT, listening to music, playing with my son, etc.. Some traders like volatile markets. I for one prefer moderately volatile markets with VIX below 20. That's when i can trade at my best.

[NAV]

Well I said that the decline would trigger a bunch of buy signals two weeks ago and there was going to be another low to be bought. We are going completely opposite here, it will be interesting to see whether I will be proven right one more time... I hope people will respect the cycles better because I also called the May top as the IT top and I am calling this as the IT bottom bearing one more week of volatility...

BTW, funnymentally, Fed will not raise the rates, they won't even mention about the inflation!

I called the May top too, unequivocally, but one day before. I called the top on friday, but the Opex stuff delayed it by a day. Go back and look at my posts. But that was only a ST top call. We'll i have said this many times. It doesn't take me much effort to call a ST top as an IT top. But that goes into the realm of prophecy. Cuz there is no confirmation and it would be just a guess.

Heck i can throw a challenge for anyone on this planet and if they can call the IT top or bottom in one attempt with 70% odds over long term, i will worship them. It's just not possible. And TA is not about prophecy or looking into future. It's about ascertaining trends in a given timeframe, projecting targets for the trend and looking for trend turns with an edge. I am into confirmation based TA, sort of like what SemiBizz does. E-waves and Cycles are both roadmaps. You can't really trade them with confidence as much as you can trade trends. Trends can save ya. But not cycles and e-wave. Both are dangerous tools, when used standalone. I have both of them at the bottom of my list when it comes to trading.

I am not sure what you mean by IT bottom bearing one more week of volatility. That's a very general statement. What price levels are you looking for a bottom ? Anyway at this point, i don't even have a confirmation for a bottom on 10-min, let alone daily or IT timeframes. So i am not calling anything . I am just waiting for a 10-min signal to make some coins

Edited by NAV, 20 June 2008 - 11:29 AM.

[beta]

Look at the NDX yestarday. That was a beauty ! I got a buy confirmation on 10- min at 1955. I placed my orders and the darn Nasdaq options market went down. Then we rallied hard and turned the hourly up. It was friggin' hard to turn bearish at least on NDX, although SPX looked sluggish. If you have trading discipline and are a trend trader, you coudn't short the top yesterday on NDX. Today's gap-down was 30 points from the high and the hourly was still marginally up. By the time the hourly turned down, there's another 30 point drop. Now would you short a 60 point drop. Heck no ! Would buy the darn thing ?. Heck no, you buy it and it turns out to be a trend day with the nasty negative breadth plurality.

I was thinking the same thing yesterday. Huge volume day on both QID/QQQQs with indications of further pain ahead for shorts.

I actually closed 1/2 my QID at 39 yesterday, and put in a buy-stop to buyback above 39.6 (daily TL break). Order executed at 39.98 this morning, which is better than nothing, but far from ideal, as it cost me 2.5% on that 1/2 lot.

Dunno if it's just my imagination, but this has been one VERY TOUGH MARKET to trade, even though Ive been positioned short for weeks now.

One thing Ive noticed is that around important trend changes, short-term technicals will start to fail (e.g., volume, trendlines, etc.) as longer-term timeframes start to take over and dominate price movement.

Let's just say Ive learned more about the importance of money management (something you always emphasize) in the past 3 weeks than about TA itself.

Edited by beta, 20 June 2008 - 11:37 AM.

[IndexTrader]

Don't say I didn't try to tell you:

http://www.traders-t...mp;#entry379202