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#31 arbman

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 02:54 PM

ogm, let me very clearly tell and agree with you, we are probably headed for something very very severely bad. However, we have a condition where the market should've crashed already and still we are trying to achieve a 20 point down day. These things bounce so furiously that you don't want to be short into it, I honestly thing that it is the same condition around the March low, only more liquid right now!!!

#32 eminimee

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 03:09 PM

My macro framework.....with the odd scorch....so I don't disagree with your overall take OGM. ...and this is the bullish scenario!!
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=88703

Edited by Teaparty, 20 June 2008 - 03:12 PM.


#33 relax

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 03:13 PM

ogm, let me very clearly tell and agree with you, we are probably headed for something very very severely bad. However, we have a condition where the market should've crashed already and still we are trying to achieve a 20 point down day. These things bounce so furiously that you don't want to be short into it, I honestly thing that it is the same condition around the March low, only more liquid right now!!!


march 07 bottom august 07 bottom jan 08 bottom and now june 08 bottom - all separated by more or less the same period in time

maybe we need one more low next week

in terms of vix, today we got that white candle towards the upper bollinger band, i would like one move up in the vix towards 25-26

is it possible teaparty and arbman - you guys know best

looking at NALOW - i just don't see a clear bottom yet

#34 relax

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 03:15 PM

teaparty you agreeing with OGM - what's wrong are you tired ;-) man people have been crazy today on this board - imagine if we physically in the same room ;-) don't we need a trip to vegas, guys - that should loosen the tension

Edited by relax, 20 June 2008 - 03:16 PM.


#35 arbman

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 05:01 PM

I don't know the best, but I think from here, you buy and hedge, you don't try to sell at least until it gives us a clear bounce like an hourly overbought to show how much bid left under this market... Yes, right now everything appears to be going to hell in a handbasket, but I think they already did to a great extent... Have a great weekend, you will need it after this week...

#36 AChartist

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 05:48 PM

Cycles are great context as I was able to talk about the low this week in advance.
Looking for the decline this week it didnt come until I took what we got
on Weds with the 60 min pattern, and some Thurs open.
It took two hours to put $60k to work.

Account was up $1200 Weds and Thurs and down $1300 today.

And I'm down $100 buying into all that? That's working ok.

Now I do see a possibilty of chop and bottoming action on Mon but that was the
worst behind us. It's going to put enough distance up in July that the Aug decline
and Oct low dont do any damage.

Consumer is really down this week, like I observed in Nov but that didnt hit the markets until after
Christmas week high. So maybe the consumer impact comes after July and in Oct they say,
well that was then, and are already looking ahead.

It just takes any break in oil to change sentiment. Can happen any time and that could be what cycles may be
anticipating.

Cycles ARE used to measure the momentum since they measure the points per time frame. It is a deep discussion, I kept showing a ton of charts here. I do not think there is any more predictive tool than the cycles since it reveals the underlying trend, but only when it is applied properly.

Of course, the cycles is not about simple day counting. However, if somebody lacks the knowledge to estimate the cyclical patterns and extract the underlying trend, they can kind of count the days and refer to the classical momentum tools to predict a turn. It should be successful with the proper money management...

What you need to understand is the only way to measure the market movements is by looking at the ups and downs and see how fast it is making those lows or highs. Cycles give you the clarity for the proper time reference AND the underlying trend. There are always multiple cycles at work and you will not always get a lot of clarity until you are near the lows, this is why the lows are easier than the tops. Honestly, most of the successful momentum tools also work like this anyway...

My call for a low here and some more volatility down to 1315 cash area is based on the cycles and precisely due to the noise in them actually that I can not clearly quantify. Can it shoot down to 1300, or 1290? Sure, it can look at the previous 3 lows, they are all over the map...

Please do not get me wrong, I totally respect your competency in trading and willing to share your signals. I didn't mean to say you are wrong, but I believe you were persistent about the low last week and I was not, this is my point of reference and the reason of these posts here right now. BUT I know you are thinking and you are saying obviously that cycles are like e-wave work, I must say this is very far away from the truth...


"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#37 AChartist

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 05:49 PM

Cycles are great context as I was able to talk about the low this week in advance.
Looking for the decline this week it didnt come until I took what we got
on Weds with the 60 min pattern, and some Thurs open.
It took two hours to put $60k to work.

Account was up $1200 Weds and Thurs and down $1300 today.

And I'm down $100 buying into all that? That's working ok.

Now I do see a possibilty of chop and bottoming action on Mon but that was the
worst behind us. It's going to put enough distance up in July that the Aug decline
and Oct low dont do any damage.

Consumer is really down this week, like I observed in Nov but that didnt hit the markets until after
Christmas week high. So maybe the consumer impact comes after July and in Oct they say,
well that was then, and are already looking ahead.

It just takes any break in oil to change sentiment. Can happen any time and that could be what cycles may be
anticipating.

Cycles ARE used to measure the momentum since they measure the points per time frame. It is a deep discussion, I kept showing a ton of charts here. I do not think there is any more predictive tool than the cycles since it reveals the underlying trend, but only when it is applied properly.

Of course, the cycles is not about simple day counting. However, if somebody lacks the knowledge to estimate the cyclical patterns and extract the underlying trend, they can kind of count the days and refer to the classical momentum tools to predict a turn. It should be successful with the proper money management...

What you need to understand is the only way to measure the market movements is by looking at the ups and downs and see how fast it is making those lows or highs. Cycles give you the clarity for the proper time reference AND the underlying trend. There are always multiple cycles at work and you will not always get a lot of clarity until you are near the lows, this is why the lows are easier than the tops. Honestly, most of the successful momentum tools also work like this anyway...

My call for a low here and some more volatility down to 1315 cash area is based on the cycles and precisely due to the noise in them actually that I can not clearly quantify. Can it shoot down to 1300, or 1290? Sure, it can look at the previous 3 lows, they are all over the map...

Please do not get me wrong, I totally respect your competency in trading and willing to share your signals. I didn't mean to say you are wrong, but I believe you were persistent about the low last week and I was not, this is my point of reference and the reason of these posts here right now. BUT I know you are thinking and you are saying obviously that cycles are like e-wave work, I must say this is very far away from the truth...


"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan