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#11 arbman

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 11:45 AM

Cycles ARE used to measure the momentum since they measure the points per time frame. It is a deep discussion, I kept showing a ton of charts here. I do not think there is any more predictive tool than the cycles since it reveals the underlying trend, but only when it is applied properly. Of course, the cycles is not about simple day counting. However, if somebody lacks the knowledge to estimate the cyclical patterns and extract the underlying trend, they can kind of count the days and refer to the classical momentum tools to predict a turn. It should be successful with the proper money management... What you need to understand is the only way to measure the market movements is by looking at the ups and downs and see how fast it is making those lows or highs. Cycles give you the clarity for the proper time reference AND the underlying trend. There are always multiple cycles at work and you will not always get a lot of clarity until you are near the lows, this is why the lows are easier than the tops. Honestly, most of the successful momentum tools also work like this anyway... My call for a low here and some more volatility down to 1315 cash area is based on the cycles and precisely due to the noise in them actually that I can not clearly quantify. Can it shoot down to 1300, or 1290? Sure, it can look at the previous 3 lows, they are all over the map... Please do not get me wrong, I totally respect your competency in trading and willing to share your signals. I didn't mean to say you are wrong, but I believe you were persistent about the low last week and I was not, this is my point of reference and the reason of these posts here right now. BUT I know you are thinking and you are saying obviously that cycles are like e-wave work, I must say this is very far away from the truth...

#12 NAV

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 11:52 AM

I didn't mean to say you are wrong, but I believe you were persistent about the low last week and I was not, this is my point of reference and the reason of these posts here right now.


I am always persistant and unequivocal about my analysis, right or wrong. And there's a reason for it. I am not a guru nor someone selling newsletter, who can afford the luxury to vacillate and provide a lot of if and but scenarios. I am a trader and i have to beleive in my work, if i have to trade. I cannot put a trade based on if and but analysis. And i have got nothing to lose if i am wrong and i call it as i see it. That's why unlike many, i stick my neck out and call a bottom a bottom or a top a top and the middle a trend and until something changes. Until the turn comes, i keep :harp:

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#13 arbman

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 11:53 AM

That's a very general statement. What price levels are you looking for a bottom ?


I said about the price levels very much in advance, I am not making them up as we go, I think 10-15 points error is reasonable when we are talking about 80-100 points to the upside...

#14 eminimee

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 11:53 AM

How about calling the IT top on the morning before the top.....
http://www.traders-t...?...c=88725&hl=

#15 relax

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 12:01 PM

you have made so many great calls, teaparty always one step ahead of the game as always appreciate you sharing your work wespect to da leaves

#16 NAV

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 12:10 PM

That's a very general statement. What price levels are you looking for a bottom ?


I said about the price levels very much in advance, I am not making them up as we go, I think 10-15 points error is reasonable when we are talking about 80-100 points to the upside...


Arbman,

The Last IT bottom was in March. If you call May as the IT top, then shoudn't the next IT low come below MArch lows ?. Now if you are calling this an IT bottom, then shoudn't you expect the next IT top above the May highs. So clearly we are talking about different things here. You are talking about cyclical bottoms/tops like the 10-week and the 20-week, while i am trying to decipher/ascertain the IT trend. To me when i say the IT trend is down now, i expect March lows to be cracked before we make new recovery highs above May. Yes we could have a 100 point rally, but that would still be a ST rally if it holds below May highs. You cannot have mini IT trends within an IT trend. So essentially you are talking about cyclical highs and lows in the context of an IT trend and not the IT tops and bottoms itself.

Edited by NAV, 20 June 2008 - 12:11 PM.

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#17 linrom1

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 12:10 PM

How about calling the IT top on the morning before the top.....
http://www.traders-t...?...c=88725&hl=


Right now your updating chart is at major support line completing wave A with B coming up. Do you still hold this view?

#18 eminimee

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 12:16 PM

Yes....as long as ES holds the 1320 area.....

#19 arbman

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 12:30 PM

So essentially you are talking about cyclical highs and lows in the context of an IT trend and not the IT tops and bottoms itself.


I think the March low was kind of a LT low (4-9 mo at least) in my mind and the initial thrust was the IT trend, we are in an IT correction within that LT sideways or uptrend in my view, I see in my analysis that the March lows will be violated much later this year and more likely next year, unless of course we crash next week. A crash here is unlikely since the 90wk cycle has bottomed and the cycles are about the odds here, the closer to the cyclical bottom with momentum divergence, the less likely to really go much lower. Having said this, I think another dive to near 1300 next week like some of the technical analysts are saying here is certainly possible, but I have the opinion that whatever the lows made next week will be pared either by the end of the week or early following week. So, I am tempted to buy them and call these lows still an IT bottom... To clarify; I do think we might make a new recovery high or very close to it...

Edited by arbman, 20 June 2008 - 12:32 PM.


#20 ken29

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 12:37 PM

I think thats why its important to have guys like OGM thats sees the big picture and understands the intermediate tops and bottoms. ;)