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$SPX Hurst Analysis


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#21 SilentOne

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 11:36 PM

hi Echo, The 20 week low may have arrived Friday or this morning with /ES printing a double bottom at 865. Time-wise it looks to have arrived. If /ES 885 holds this week, then I would say the 20 week low is in. The first 20 week cycle should be a little shorter than nomimal as it is the first in a new 80 week cycle. I guess we'll see. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#22 Echo

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 01:21 AM

On Friday, we were only 18 weeks along the 20wk cycle. That was a valid cycle length off the Mar 2003 4.5 and 9 year lows, but now I'm not sure I'd expect it to shorten that much. Time will tell, but I'm still looking for around July 24 for the 20wk low and around 805 area. Best wishes. Echo/Doc

#23 SilentOne

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 09:24 AM

hi Doc, I'm going to start calling you Doc BTW. Having had a closer look, I agree that a 20 week low is quite early if it arrived last week. The last 10 week low was May 15th IMO. The last 5 week low must have been June 23rd. We have what looks like another 8-9 trading days or so to watch for the 20 week low to arrive. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#24 Echo

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 09:55 AM

John, That's exactly as I see it and July 8, last Wed, was the last 2.5wk cycle low before the 20wk nest. Thanks for the post as I would be concerned if you had phasing different from mine. I respect your work highly. BTW, using any variety of reasonable offsets on the daily charts, the 20wk fld breaks are targeting the low 800s. The question is, will those targets be met. Well for starters, the 2.5wk fld target was met and minimally overshot so I think that it is still possible. If so, that is 80+ SPX points down from here as I write or a 8-9% move down. Be well, Doc

#25 dowdeva

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 07:08 PM

John, Doc, John, thanks for pointing out that the first 20 week low out of an 80 week cycle low is often early. I didn't know that. So far we have under-shot the 20 week cycle high projection, and also (although the jury is out still), the low projection. We could go down to the low 800's by next week, but doubtful. There seems to be a 'flattening effect' all round. With the 9 year down and the 4.5 year still technically up, and after next week or the week after, the 20 week and lower cycles up, this could go on for a while. There over 300,000 contracts in open interest on the SPY August 80 puts, and over 400,000 on the 1000 call, of which 200,000 were opened just this last week. Interesting to see how that comes into play vis-a-vis Hurst projections. Not playing any longs here (unless I see a really compelling play), and will only be looking to go short into the 40 week low, as one of you also just said. I know this is not an astrology board, but there is a very rare, complex, and terrible aspect from the planets coming into fruition right around November/December. Deva

#26 denmo83

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 08:49 PM

hi Echo,

The 20 week low may have arrived Friday or this morning with /ES printing a double bottom at 865. Time-wise it looks to have arrived. If /ES 885 holds this week, then I would say the 20 week low is in. The first 20 week cycle should be a little shorter than nomimal as it is the first in a new 80 week cycle.

I guess we'll see.

cheers,

john


We still have one day to go this week, but your 885 looks safe. The moves up this week in both oil and equities sure looks like your cycle lows came in early. Does it seem that way to you or do you guys feel echo's SPX 805 low is still attainable?

#27 SilentOne

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 09:33 PM

hi dowdeva/denmo,

I know this is not an astrology board, but there is a very rare, complex, and terrible aspect from the planets coming into fruition right around November/December.


That would be the next 9 month low for the $SPX. I'm also looking for a big buy in precious metals into that timeframe.

There can be no doubt that the 20 week low has arrived for the $SPX. What gets real interesting is how we end 2009 from here. I predict trading the $SPX will be very difficult into the fall.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 16 July 2009 - 09:38 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#28 denmo83

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 10:35 PM

hi dowdeva/denmo,

I know this is not an astrology board, but there is a very rare, complex, and terrible aspect from the planets coming into fruition right around November/December.


That would be the next 9 month low for the $SPX. I'm also looking for a big buy in precious metals into that timeframe.

There can be no doubt that the 20 week low has arrived for the $SPX. What gets real interesting is how we end 2009 from here. I predict trading the $SPX will be very difficult into the fall.

cheers,

john


Do you feel oils will be equally as dificult? Are you buy and hold with oil or will you be trading/holding a core position?

#29 Echo

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Posted 17 July 2009 - 10:51 AM

While it is possible that the 20wk low came in super early, it would have been roughly 2.5wks early and cycle contractions of that magnitude are not normal in the Hurst world. With the strength of the move this week, it is certainly possible, but I am very much open to the possibility that this 2.5wk cycle had a very amplified upside due to news/opex and that the 20wk low is still ahead targeting next friday or so. We will know in the coming few days as if we indeed have bottomed, there should be at most a shallow pullback and if the 20wk low is still ahead, we good get quite a dramatic pullback... Echo

#30 denmo83

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Posted 17 July 2009 - 08:56 PM

While it is possible that the 20wk low came in super early, it would have been roughly 2.5wks early and cycle contractions of that magnitude are not normal in the Hurst world. With the strength of the move this week, it is certainly possible, but I am very much open to the possibility that this 2.5wk cycle had a very amplified upside due to news/opex and that the 20wk low is still ahead targeting next friday or so. We will know in the coming few days as if we indeed have bottomed, there should be at most a shallow pullback and if the 20wk low is still ahead, we good get quite a dramatic pullback...

Echo

Thanks for your thoughts echo!