67 replies to this topic

[denmo83]

hi dowdeva/denmo,

I know this is not an astrology board, but there is a very rare, complex, and terrible aspect from the planets coming into fruition right around November/December.

That would be the next 9 month low for the $SPX. I'm also looking for a big buy in precious metals into that timeframe.

There can be no doubt that the 20 week low has arrived for the $SPX. What gets real interesting is how we end 2009 from here. I predict trading the $SPX will be very difficult into the fall.

cheers,

john

Hey John, echo.

The short term charts---daily, hourly, down to the 5 minute charts are heavy with divergences. There is a gap in the Nasdaq that is about half way filled from last October. 1947 ought to fill it. A trip up to SPX 963 could accomplish it.

What are your imediate thoughts for the next week or so for the SPX? Thanks!

[dowdeva]

John,

I was going thru your old posts, and was struck by how accurate, almost 'prescient,' this was.

What's your view on the upcoming 40 week low, in view of this recent rally? Does it lose some of it's potential 'venom.'

Thanks,

Deva

Price action is not consistent with an 80 week low. Thus I have to assume it has not arrived yet. The $SPX failed miserably as it rolled off its FLDs (2.5, 5, 10, and 20 week). So this market is headed for its lows no doubt. The more difficult question is when will an 80 week low make its turn. And when it occurs you'll know, trust me.

This is Bob's original phasing for the 80 week cycle (18 month) and points to a low possibly late Feb./early March. There are some other aspects that point to March 6th at the moment, but that is merely a guess at this point. The 80 week will be good to what +/- 4 weeks but will extend in time due to the very large cycles involved? So could extend to mid-April. Avg. cycle length is 79 weeks for the last 13 counted here (assuming the cycles are accurately counted of course).

What bugs me is the "extra" 80 week cycle we seem to be looking at here for 1987. And I just can't see how a market can top virtually at a 4.5 year low (ie. black vertical lines are 4.5 year cycle lows). From 10,000 feet that is what it looks like. AND if that is correct that the 4.5 year low came in Aug., 2007 near the all-time high, then timewise this bear is going to be really painful, never mind price. I think I have repeated myself more than once on this, but those are the facts.

Once the 80 week low is in we will see a terrific rally, probably one of the best of this bear market.



cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

hi dowdeva, From a Hurst perspective, there is no bearish setup right now in the current 80 week cycle. It looks bullish until proven otherwise. I always knew it was going to "look good" coming out of such an oversold level. From here it just gets very tricky. Anyone professing that they know what the stock market will do from here into the fall is guessing IMO. I certainly don't know myself and I won't be trading it on that basis. This market is for traders right now. The recent FLD target generated for the 5 week cycle has been met and there is a new outstanding 10 week FLD target of ~1015. We are 20 weeks off the March low so the 40 week will be topping here. The 80 week is still pointing up and I assume the 4.5, 9, and 18 year cycles are still pointing down based on my last phasing of the larger cycles. So I can't get excited about anything until we see where and how the 40 week low comes in. If the long term cycles have bottomed somehow here, then we'll know by next year. That's not what I am expecting though. cheers, john

[dowdeva]

hi dowdeva,

From a Hurst perspective, there is no bearish setup right now in the current 80 week cycle. It looks bullish until proven otherwise. I always knew it was going to "look good" coming out of such an oversold level. From here it just gets very tricky. Anyone professing that they know what the stock market will do from here into the fall is guessing IMO. I certainly don't know myself and I won't be trading it on that basis. This market is for traders right now.

The recent FLD target generated for the 5 week cycle has been met and there is a new outstanding 10 week FLD target of ~1015. We are 20 weeks off the March low so the 40 week will be topping here. The 80 week is still pointing up and I assume the 4.5, 9, and 18 year cycles are still pointing down based on my last phasing of the larger cycles. So I can't get excited about anything until we see where and how the 40 week low comes in. If the long term cycles have bottomed somehow here, then we'll know by next year. That's not what I am expecting though.

cheers,

john

Thanks for your ever thoughtful replies, John. I ama looking to peg today as the 2.5 week low out of the 20 week low, which arrived early as you and Echo pointed out. We may gap down tomorrow, though.

Deva

[denmo83]

hi dowdeva,

From a Hurst perspective, there is no bearish setup right now in the current 80 week cycle. It looks bullish until proven otherwise. I always knew it was going to "look good" coming out of such an oversold level. From here it just gets very tricky. Anyone professing that they know what the stock market will do from here into the fall is guessing IMO. I certainly don't know myself and I won't be trading it on that basis. This market is for traders right now.

The recent FLD target generated for the 5 week cycle has been met and there is a new outstanding <b>10 week FLD target of ~1015</b>. We are 20 weeks off the March low so the 40 week will be topping here. The 80 week is still pointing up and I assume the 4.5, 9, and 18 year cycles are still pointing down based on my last phasing of the larger cycles. So I can't get excited about anything until we see where and how the 40 week low comes in. If the long term cycles have bottomed somehow here, then we'll know by next year. That's not what I am expecting though.

cheers,

john

<b><i>10 week FLD target of ~1015</i></b>

Absolutely amazing! Congrats John!

[SilentOne]

I continue to be amazed at the $SPX. I'm not trading it and haven't been since May. Too many other things too worry about for me to get involved trading many of these markets right now. The one good thing I did this year was to see the March low for what it was and not make anymore bearish bets. As for the current $SPX outlook, it looks mixed. I'm quite certain that we saw a 5 week low on Monday. So if you are bearish short term, you definitely want to see Monday's low taken out to the downside. If and when it occurs, I would call that a failure of the 5 week low and the first real sign the market has actually topped. Interestingly, the 5 and 10 week FLD targets were exceeded and the 20 week FLD target has already be achieved for the current 20 week cycle. That's not bearish by Hurst standards so I don't really know what to make of it right now. As for positions, we've got conservative dividend paying positions and no major bets are being made from here. cheers, john P.S. And what's with that megaphone thingy.

Edited by SilentOne, 19 August 2009 - 02:54 PM.

[SilentOne]

I should mention that the 40 week FLD target is 1040 +/-15 depending on the weekly offset setting used. I'm expecting a top for the current 40 week cycle in September. I should add that it should also be the top for the 80 week cycle, but I have nothing Hurst-wise to support that. It's just my gut read and I could be dead wrong. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 20 August 2009 - 09:21 AM.

[LeroyB3]

I believe the 80 week FLD was also broken a few weeks ago and points to the 1250-ish range. Best, LB

[SilentOne]

I believe the 80 week FLD was also broken a few weeks ago and points to the 1250-ish range.

Best,

LB

Yup it has ...

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 21 August 2009 - 09:13 AM.

[SilentOne]

I want to start tracking the $SPX more closely now as we are approaching an important point in time. Mid-Sept. is a crucial period and will determine whether another low is set, or we see a significant multi-week top which leads to a 40 week cycle low. From a cycles point of view, the 2.5 week cycles will mark key levels going forward. We are approaching a possible turn as the $SPX is 15 days from its last 2.5 week low tomorrow. A bounce is likely. But will it lead to a retest of a top (and a right shoulder)? Or set a good 10 week low for another rally? I don't know the answer. But the first turn at a 2.5 week low is likely to test the lower trendline shown here which comes in sub 990. The 2.5 week FLD target is in this region depending on the offset setting used. Another interesting fact is the correction off the early Aug. highs was 4% for the/ES contract. Since we are likely to correct at one degree higher here off the /es 1039 top, you'd expect a correction of slightly more than 4% here on this move down into a 2.5 week low. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 03 September 2009 - 11:07 PM.