Edited by SilentOne, 10 September 2009 - 02:38 PM.
$SPX Hurst Analysis
#41
Posted 10 September 2009 - 02:37 PM
#42
Posted 10 September 2009 - 03:55 PM
Another interesting fact is the correction off the early Aug. highs was 4% for the/ES contract. Since we are likely to correct at one degree higher here off the /es 1039 top, you'd expect a correction of slightly more than 4% here on this move down into a 2.5 week low.
I expect a correction into a 2.5, 5 and 10 week low here. I don't see a thrust higher from here. We still have room to have a +5% correction here to satisfy degree of trend as well. No telling if this is a longer term top, but for the time being, I am willing to cash up and take a short here. Also from a day count we are 6 days up now on /ES from the last 2.5 week low. This rally should not go much beyond 7 days before price should turn and head into the next low. If price continues well beyond 7 days in this cycle, then the 10 week low already arrived which would be quite surprising. That cycle would have been a mere 39-40 days and not what I would expect 3/4 through the larger 40 week cycle timeframe.
Short SPY @ 104.75 and 104.85 near today's close. No leverage unless we get confirmation of a turn. A mental stop at 106 would make sense. From my view they really tucked price up into the uptendline today.
cheers,
john
Edited by SilentOne, 10 September 2009 - 04:05 PM.
#43
Posted 10 September 2009 - 04:15 PM
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
#44
Posted 10 September 2009 - 08:10 PM
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O誰eil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
#45
Posted 16 September 2009 - 09:14 AM
Edited by SilentOne, 16 September 2009 - 09:18 AM.
#46
Posted 16 September 2009 - 12:24 PM
Nice chart and analysis as usual.
I guess I am the only one looking for another 30 points up before any significant consolidation.
Think I will go take my "chill-I'm-wrong" pill and suck my thumb.
Thanks for the post and heads up.
mss
I think I will take my thumb out of my mouth now and and
OK, I am sorry for being a show off.
mss
Edited by mss, 16 September 2009 - 12:25 PM.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
#47
Posted 16 September 2009 - 01:27 PM
ARMS ratio indicates not enough people are buying into this rally yet for the market to get overbought - hence we keep going up
...
I think there's a solid chance S&P may not pull back until Tues or Wed of next week...I have Mon-Wed of next week as Gann-derived turn dates
...
I should say the Gann turn date could be either of Mon, Tues, Wed...they are not all Gann turn dates...this date of Sep 21-23 comes off QQQQ
...
ST market turns produced by Gann dates can also lead to longer-term moves. I think S&P will see 1100 or higher before this rally is over tho
All of my ST trading on the S&P is based off of my blackbox system. I often post the trades on Twitter. It closed SDS long on Monday's close for a 2.8% loss (held from last Wednesday's close) and stood flat. It then went long SSO on yesterday's close and will hold at least until today's close.
I believe we will see 1100 to 1140 (best estimate: 1120) before this rally sees its first significant peak,
which I expect will be in October, whereupon a 10%+ correction I expect will begin, probably mid-October, but could occur anywhere within the first 3 weeks or so of October, with special emphasis on October 5-7 and 13-15.
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O誰eil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
#48
Posted 16 September 2009 - 01:28 PM
Nice chart and analysis as usual.
I guess I am the only one looking for another 30 points up before any significant consolidation.
Think I will go take my "chill-I'm-wrong" pill and suck my thumb.
Thanks for the post and heads up.
mss
I think I will take my thumb out of my mouth now and and
OK, I am sorry for being a show off.
mss
You were right for being sceptical of me and John
Enjoy the showing off, Scott
You deserve it
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O誰eil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
#49
Posted 24 September 2009 - 04:58 PM
I wrote this last night on Twitter:
ARMS ratio indicates not enough people are buying into this rally yet for the market to get overbought - hence we keep going up
...
I think there's a solid chance S&P may not pull back until Tues or Wed of next week...I have Mon-Wed of next week as Gann-derived turn dates
...
I should say the Gann turn date could be either of Mon, Tues, Wed...they are not all Gann turn dates...this date of Sep 21-23 comes off QQQQ
...
ST market turns produced by Gann dates can also lead to longer-term moves. I think S&P will see 1100 or higher before this rally is over tho
This pullback has shaped up just as expected and I am now going long on a multi-day to multi-week basis on the S&P...this rally is not over yet, but getting there...still expecting 1100 or higher, and still expecting the first 10%+ correction to this rally to begin in early to mid-October (keep a particular eye on Oct 5-7 and Oct 13/14/15)
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O誰eil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
#50
Posted 24 September 2009 - 09:51 PM
I wrote this last night on Twitter:
ARMS ratio indicates not enough people are buying into this rally yet for the market to get overbought - hence we keep going up
...
I think there's a solid chance S&P may not pull back until Tues or Wed of next week...I have Mon-Wed of next week as Gann-derived turn dates
...
I should say the Gann turn date could be either of Mon, Tues, Wed...they are not all Gann turn dates...this date of Sep 21-23 comes off QQQQ
...
ST market turns produced by Gann dates can also lead to longer-term moves. I think S&P will see 1100 or higher before this rally is over tho
This pullback has shaped up just as expected and I am now going long on a multi-day to multi-week basis on the S&P...this rally is not over yet, but getting there...still expecting 1100 or higher, and still expecting the first 10%+ correction to this rally to begin in early to mid-October (keep a particular eye on Oct 5-7 and Oct 13/14/15)
My stop for now is a convincing daily close below 1033, by the way
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O誰eil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months