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$SPX Hurst Analysis


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#41 SilentOne

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Posted 10 September 2009 - 02:37 PM

I'll be looking to short $SPX on the close of trading today for a correction into the next 2.5, 5 and 10 week lows. I don't have time to post charts right now and may not get to it until next week. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 10 September 2009 - 02:38 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#42 SilentOne

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Posted 10 September 2009 - 03:55 PM

Another interesting fact is the correction off the early Aug. highs was 4% for the/ES contract. Since we are likely to correct at one degree higher here off the /es 1039 top, you'd expect a correction of slightly more than 4% here on this move down into a 2.5 week low.


I expect a correction into a 2.5, 5 and 10 week low here. I don't see a thrust higher from here. We still have room to have a +5% correction here to satisfy degree of trend as well. No telling if this is a longer term top, but for the time being, I am willing to cash up and take a short here. Also from a day count we are 6 days up now on /ES from the last 2.5 week low. This rally should not go much beyond 7 days before price should turn and head into the next low. If price continues well beyond 7 days in this cycle, then the 10 week low already arrived which would be quite surprising. That cycle would have been a mere 39-40 days and not what I would expect 3/4 through the larger 40 week cycle timeframe.

Short SPY @ 104.75 and 104.85 near today's close. No leverage unless we get confirmation of a turn. A mental stop at 106 would make sense. From my view they really tucked price up into the uptendline today.

cheers,

john

SPX_5_week_cycles_on_up_Sept._10_2009.png

Edited by SilentOne, 10 September 2009 - 04:05 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#43 mss

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Posted 10 September 2009 - 04:15 PM

:) Nice chart and analysis as usual. I guess I am the only one looking for another 30 points up before any significant consolidation. :o Think I will go take my "chill-I'm-wrong" pill and suck my thumb. :lol: :lol: :lol: Thanks for the post and heads up. mss
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#44 inamosa

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Posted 10 September 2009 - 08:10 PM

john's work is somewhat confirming mine It seems to me quite likely we may see the high for a little while (maybe the high for the month) within the next 3-5 trading days (incl. tomorrow in that count) I think 1055-1066 may prove a bit of a challenge for this market to get through without some consolidation, also However, looking further out, this rally ultimately looks like it has further to go, IMHO, and I'd be a bit surprised if it ends with us not getting at least to mss's target Watch out for October, though...multiple time investigations lead me to believe that there is a good chance we will see a major top in this rally in October, particularly within the first 2 weeks
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-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O誰eil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#45 SilentOne

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 09:14 AM

I've cut my position size in half here this morning, buying back SPY at 106.20. The rest may go today. It is obvious now that the $SPX put in a 10 week low in early Sept. The nominal 10 week cycle is still due next week but if the 10 week is in, it was very early again (ie. 38-39 days). So this is the last 10 week cycle in the current 40 week cycle period. I expect it to be choppy and a difficult trade until we approach the 40 week low. A 2.5 week cycle is due by the end of the week. That is where I may cover the remaining short positon and stand back. I assume fund managers with lots of cash are somewhat nervous here and window dressing is bound to be a factor going into month end. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 16 September 2009 - 09:18 AM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#46 mss

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 12:24 PM

:)

Nice chart and analysis as usual.

I guess I am the only one looking for another 30 points up before any significant consolidation. :o

Think I will go take my "chill-I'm-wrong" pill and suck my thumb. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Thanks for the post and heads up.
mss


I think I will take my thumb out of my mouth now and :clap: and :cheer:

OK, I am sorry for being a show off. :(

mss

Edited by mss, 16 September 2009 - 12:25 PM.

WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
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#47 inamosa

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 01:27 PM

I wrote this last night on Twitter:

ARMS ratio indicates not enough people are buying into this rally yet for the market to get overbought - hence we keep going up

...

I think there's a solid chance S&P may not pull back until Tues or Wed of next week...I have Mon-Wed of next week as Gann-derived turn dates

...

I should say the Gann turn date could be either of Mon, Tues, Wed...they are not all Gann turn dates...this date of Sep 21-23 comes off QQQQ

...

ST market turns produced by Gann dates can also lead to longer-term moves. I think S&P will see 1100 or higher before this rally is over tho

All of my ST trading on the S&P is based off of my blackbox system. I often post the trades on Twitter. It closed SDS long on Monday's close for a 2.8% loss (held from last Wednesday's close) and stood flat. It then went long SSO on yesterday's close and will hold at least until today's close.


I believe we will see 1100 to 1140 (best estimate: 1120) before this rally sees its first significant peak,

which I expect will be in October, whereupon a 10%+ correction I expect will begin, probably mid-October, but could occur anywhere within the first 3 weeks or so of October, with special emphasis on October 5-7 and 13-15.
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O誰eil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#48 inamosa

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 01:28 PM

:)

Nice chart and analysis as usual.

I guess I am the only one looking for another 30 points up before any significant consolidation. :o

Think I will go take my "chill-I'm-wrong" pill and suck my thumb. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Thanks for the post and heads up.
mss


I think I will take my thumb out of my mouth now and :clap: and :cheer:

OK, I am sorry for being a show off. :(

mss


You were right for being sceptical of me and John

Enjoy the showing off, Scott

You deserve it
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O誰eil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#49 inamosa

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Posted 24 September 2009 - 04:58 PM

I wrote this last night on Twitter:

ARMS ratio indicates not enough people are buying into this rally yet for the market to get overbought - hence we keep going up

...

I think there's a solid chance S&P may not pull back until Tues or Wed of next week...I have Mon-Wed of next week as Gann-derived turn dates

...

I should say the Gann turn date could be either of Mon, Tues, Wed...they are not all Gann turn dates...this date of Sep 21-23 comes off QQQQ

...

ST market turns produced by Gann dates can also lead to longer-term moves. I think S&P will see 1100 or higher before this rally is over tho



This pullback has shaped up just as expected and I am now going long on a multi-day to multi-week basis on the S&P...this rally is not over yet, but getting there...still expecting 1100 or higher, and still expecting the first 10%+ correction to this rally to begin in early to mid-October (keep a particular eye on Oct 5-7 and Oct 13/14/15)
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O誰eil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#50 inamosa

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Posted 24 September 2009 - 09:51 PM

I wrote this last night on Twitter:

ARMS ratio indicates not enough people are buying into this rally yet for the market to get overbought - hence we keep going up

...

I think there's a solid chance S&P may not pull back until Tues or Wed of next week...I have Mon-Wed of next week as Gann-derived turn dates

...

I should say the Gann turn date could be either of Mon, Tues, Wed...they are not all Gann turn dates...this date of Sep 21-23 comes off QQQQ

...

ST market turns produced by Gann dates can also lead to longer-term moves. I think S&P will see 1100 or higher before this rally is over tho



This pullback has shaped up just as expected and I am now going long on a multi-day to multi-week basis on the S&P...this rally is not over yet, but getting there...still expecting 1100 or higher, and still expecting the first 10%+ correction to this rally to begin in early to mid-October (keep a particular eye on Oct 5-7 and Oct 13/14/15)


My stop for now is a convincing daily close below 1033, by the way
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O誰eil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months