67 replies to this topic

[dowdeva]

My phasing is thus: The 20 week low arrived early on July 10, per Doc and John's phasing. The next 5 week low arrived on August 14 to 17, on schedule. The next 5 week low arrived right on schedule also on September 18, and this current low is the window for the 6-7/1.25 week low, which I think will arrive Monday morning. Although I haven't done an FPA, some of the emerging markets I follow are in synch with this phasing, with last week being a lower low than this week (although slight). I am starting to theorize - and may have said it here - that when Hurst phasing 'feel's off, one could look to another strong phasing cosmology for a potential answer. The 20 week arrived 2.5 weeks early on July 10, and T. Laundry's work had an important T ending on June 30, July 1. I have been emulating other of Laundry's readers, such as Rogerdodger's, attempts to create T's, and I drew one that culminated in September 21/22. I suppose a strong Gann turn date would have some effect too, but don't know much about Gann. Breadth is still strongly up, and today's penetration below the 0 line on NYMO begs for a kiss-back to the 0 line due to the continuing strength in breadth. The market 'owes' us Hursties 2.5 weeks, and we may see it in an elongation in one of the ennested lows coming up. Or not.

[Echo]

Dowdeva,

I am still uncomfortable in many ways with labeling July 10th as the 20wk low, even though from a bird's eye view, it sure looks like a slam dunk. I have been since July and I remain so to this day. I think we will know better once the 40wk low comes in. Too bad we need the past 20wk low to forecast the 40wk low, lol. Here is a post I put up just now on the main board, but I believe it belongs here too.

I've been laying low about the 20 and 10wk cycles as the July low really was 2.5wks early for the 20wk low. One way to deal with that is to accept that the 20wk low came early as John (Silent One) has. Clearly it seems evident on the price charts if you are simply looking for the price lows. But Hurst cycles don't work that way, at least not according to the course and not according to the way Airedale had interperted them. If I were to accept July 10 as the 20wk low, I would have to accept either a missing 2.5wk cycle or a sudden shortening of cycle length to squish in eight 2.5wk cycles into the 17.5wks from the March lows to July 10th. Both of these runs counter to Hurst principles. I also don't see a very good fit for the phasing of such eight 2.5wk cycles into that space. The one other possibility is the the 80 wk low was actually earlier than March 6th (recall it came in at 81wks post the Aug 07 Hurst 4.5yr low) and that the final price low was actually a small cycle straddle at the beginning of the new 80wk cycle. This would then allow for the July 10th 20wk low, but this phasing also seems to be a stretch.

I've been following the original phasing I had from the March 6th lows and still think it is tenable.
In that phasing, I see the 20wk low as coming in on July 29th.
The first 2.5wk low on August 17th.
The second 2.5wk low on Sept 3rd.
The third 2.5wk low was on Sept 21st.
We are now 6 days into the last 2.5wk cycle in the 10wk cycle
With this phasing, the 10wk low is due around Wed of next week or Oct 7th.
We've generated a 2.5wk FLD downside target of 1025 +/- 5.5 points on SPX cash, which in a bull market could be undershot.

To be complete, with Monday's huge rally, we've also generated a 6-7day FLD upside target of 1080, which is a retest of the local top. If we are indeed that close to a 10wk low, this target could be undershot as well.

Either way, the 80wk FLD target of 1200 or so is still in play or at least until we start breaking down some VTLs.

Echo/Doc

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[SilentOne]

hi guys, I appreciate your posting your thoughts here. It keeps a good record and focuses things. I have drawn in nominal 20 week lows off the August 2007 low. The July low works well I think. Now we have to see where a 40 week low arrives. As for predictability, the $SPX has been anything but. Unless you are trading say the 20 week cycle. And all of them failed in the last 80 week cycle. I gotta get the kids off to school. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 01 October 2009 - 07:23 AM.

[Echo]

Hello John, I don't deny that your phasing for the July low may end up being the correct one. But the interval between the 20 wk cycles you've drawn are as follows: 20, 20, 20, 21, 18 Airedale would always use the average of the last 3 cycles to estimate the expected length of the next on. So for the July 20wk low that would have been 20.33wks. It's an academic question at this point, but it boils down to this: Is the sudden jump down to 18wks within the realms of Hurst's acceptance of a gradual expansion and contraction of cycle lengths and variability? Perhaps this one time it was, after the violent crash and rebound. We'll know a bit more in the rearview mirror after the 40wk low and more. Anyway, its good to keep an eye on my phasing if trading the SPX as after this next 2.5wk low, my phasing would allow for another leg up as the beginning of the last 10wk cycle in the bull rebound whereas with your phasing, you'd be looking directly into the teeth of the 40wk low and expect a bearish bias the next few weeks. Also keep in mind that in the rally off the 2003 lows, there was a 40wk low that was just a minor pause in a strong rally leg that you couldn't really see as a price low from across the room. Just got my kids off to school too. Best, Echo/Doc

[SilentOne]

hi Echo,

whereas with your phasing, you'd be looking directly into the teeth of the 40wk low and expect a bearish bias the next few weeks.

That's pretty much where I am at. The $SPX is up 30 weeks into a top in Sept. Now we see how a 40 week low is made. I still believe the larger cycles (9, 18 year etc.) are pointing down so this market can top out in the current 18 month cycle at any time.

cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

hi echo/Dowdeva,

It looks like a 2.5 and 5 week low will arrive here today or Monday. Again, I have the early Sept. low as a 10 week low. Another good decline will start once the bounce is over and I am bearish until a 40 week low arrives. So my cycle view is a bit different than what is shown here, but a ST low should come in soon.



cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 02 October 2009 - 09:26 AM.

[Echo]

John, I think the 2.5wk low will come in Tues-Wed. We now have broke the 5 wk FLD which provides us with a downside target of 1012 using a 12 offset and 1006 using a 13 offset which could be met in the next 1-3 TD. After that, you are looking for a bounce and then down into a low around Oct 26 area for the 40wk low. I am thinking that if my phasing is right about this being the 10wk low, than I am looking for the market to further the rally for several weeks and the 40 week low coming in around Dec 15th area. Echo/Doc

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[SilentOne]

hi echo, The difference between a possible 5 and 10 week low (at Friday's low) should become apparent soon as discussed over at iHub. 20 week lows are shown below with the blue arrows along with the coming one this fall. cheers, john

[SilentOne]

Went short via SPY at 106.46 this morning. Partial position as hedge. Will add tomorrow. cheers, john

[SilentOne]

The $SPX should put in a 2.5 week cycle low today or tomorrow. To confirm a decline into a 40 cycle low has started, this coming 2.5 week cycle low has to be taken out to the downside. It is also possible that yesterday's low was the 2.5 week cycle low, and that would therefore become the level to watch. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 20 October 2009 - 01:26 PM.