Posted 22 October 2009 - 08:30 AM
This will be my last post on this thread and likely for a while. Here is my closing comment and opinion on the $SPX long term cycles. This thread was started last summer when I saw ominous signs in the cyclic action of the $SPX. We haven't seen any real signs of the bear since the March lows (last 18 month low), but I'll now present the problem.
My current view (and an extension of airedale's phasing) is that the last 18 year cycle low was made in 1994. The last 9 year low was made in 2003. The last 4.5 year low was made in August 2007. The markets need to make a 4.5, 9 and 18 year nest lows in the future, and the first real opportunity will be next summer say August/September 2010. Many argue that long term lows have already occured. That is not likely but time will tell.
The current cyclic status for the larger cycles is as follows:
18 year cycle is down
9 year cycle is down
4.5 year cycle is topping
18 month cycle is up
40 week cycle is down
20 week cycle is down
Once the coming 40 week lows have passed, the 4.5 year cycle will be pointing down. The 18 month cycle will be pointing down. The only cycle pointing up will be the 20 and 40 week cycle. This will allow a rally into the first quarter 2010. It may be a new high or simply a retest of this year's high. But at some point after that, things will likely be very bearish.
Edited by SilentOne, 22 October 2009 - 08:36 AM.
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain