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$SPX Hurst Analysis


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#61 bigtrader

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 01:36 PM

I think VIX options expire tomorrow. That could hold us up for a day or 2 before we head down for real.
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#62 SilentOne

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Posted 22 October 2009 - 08:30 AM

This will be my last post on this thread and likely for a while. Here is my closing comment and opinion on the $SPX long term cycles. This thread was started last summer when I saw ominous signs in the cyclic action of the $SPX. We haven't seen any real signs of the bear since the March lows (last 18 month low), but I'll now present the problem. My current view (and an extension of airedale's phasing) is that the last 18 year cycle low was made in 1994. The last 9 year low was made in 2003. The last 4.5 year low was made in August 2007. The markets need to make a 4.5, 9 and 18 year nest lows in the future, and the first real opportunity will be next summer say August/September 2010. Many argue that long term lows have already occured. That is not likely but time will tell. The current cyclic status for the larger cycles is as follows: 18 year cycle is down 9 year cycle is down 4.5 year cycle is topping 18 month cycle is up 40 week cycle is down 20 week cycle is down Once the coming 40 week lows have passed, the 4.5 year cycle will be pointing down. The 18 month cycle will be pointing down. The only cycle pointing up will be the 20 and 40 week cycle. This will allow a rally into the first quarter 2010. It may be a new high or simply a retest of this year's high. But at some point after that, things will likely be very bearish. cheers, john SPX_long_term_cycles_Oct_2009.png

Edited by SilentOne, 22 October 2009 - 08:36 AM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#63 bigtrader

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Posted 22 October 2009 - 09:01 AM

Thanks for your past contributions. GL
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#64 mss

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Posted 22 October 2009 - 09:24 AM

:) Thanks again for all your very good and informative work. I hope that this is NOT YOUR LAST POST. Your work is too good to not be shared with us lesser learned. Best to you, Scott
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#65 opinionated

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Posted 22 October 2009 - 02:23 PM

:o No say it ain't so John! Im one of the less experienced here and your post have been so insightful, such a learning experience. Please find the time to update us, your thoughts. And thank you so much for your work, and all the time you've shared.

#66 apprentice

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Posted 22 October 2009 - 04:58 PM

Hope you"re back soon Silent One! By the way what Ihub board are you referring to?



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#67 inamosa

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Posted 24 October 2009 - 11:59 AM

John, Thanks for your contributions and I hope it won't be as long as you seem to indicate before we see you again Take care
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#68 SilentOne

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Posted 30 October 2009 - 12:46 PM

Just to close out the previous posted trade, I've covered the SPY short @ 104. There are lower targets but I will wait to see if we get another bounce to short. Everything is sitting at ST channel bottoms. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain