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Gold Hurst Analysis


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#1 SilentOne

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Posted 13 July 2008 - 12:34 PM

I have moved this post over the the Swing waves board. I want to continue this thread with more comments on wave analysis. Otherwise it gets buried in the Gold board.

Sentiment is problematic in the ST. We are 55 weeks along if I count from the late June 2007 as the last cycle low. Maybe I have to skip it and see where the August 16th low places us. Confusing for now and it is very difficult for me to get enthusiast about PMs. Oh at some point we can get a good rally, but I expect it to be a dud compared to last year. Let's see what happens when gold touches the 50/65 week ma which it needs to do this summer.

Posted Image

I should also add that we are now likely entering the most bearish phase of this bull cycle for the miners. Gold may grind higher as in 2004/2005, but the gold indices will be more difficult to predict. How can that be? Well as I have been posting since last year, the 4.5 and 9 year lows are likely to bottom at the next 56 week cycle low (summer 2009). We either consolidate or find a wide range until that bottom arrives.

Many goldbugs will recall the 2004-2005 correction. IMHO t was a mini gold stock bear. Note that it was the last 55/56 week cycle prior to the 4.5 year low bottom (which was a great bottom). I expect we are approaching the same type of market for the next 56 week cycle once it begins and puts in its high.

I will probably buy some gold on the next correction low so as not to be out of this market. It would replace some of the bullion sales from earlier this year.

It's all in the cycles and for now I'll let them speak to me. I could be all wet.
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cheers,

john


"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#2 SilentOne

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Posted 13 July 2008 - 12:47 PM

Here is an interesting phasing on gold. This was published Jan. 2007 and was a very good predictor for the market looking for a Summer 2007 low (so was I), and a high in early 2008. The thing worth noting is the status for the larger cycles (red and blue waves). The red wave approximates the 4.5 year Hurst cycle and the blue the 112 week cycle (or half cycle of the 4.5 year). The 4.5 year cycle is heading into a low due next year. The 112 week cycle is topping out as the 56 week cycle is setting its low. So of these three important cycles, we have the 4.5 year heading down, the 112 week (2.2 year) heading down. It is the 56 week cycle that has bottomed and is exerting upward pressure that we see right now.

Posted Image

timingsolutions

I explained in the previous post my dilemma for investing in gold at this time. With the 9 year and 4.5 year cycles due next year, will gold put in a lower or higher low. I don't really know. But certainly the best buys/bottoms have come off the bottoms or nest of lows involving the 4.5 year cycle and the 112 week cycle (2.2 year). These occured in 2001 and 2005. The secondary buys/bottoms have come when the 112 week cycle low comes in as the 4.5 year cycle is cresting. These occured in 2003 and 2007. The next due date in 2009 for an important bottom is in 2009 and all of this is depicted in my chart in the previous post.

Now it may well be that some larger cycle is influencing the current market or that fundamental events are driving the gold cycles at this time. So my caution towards precious metals may be misplaced, but this is the source of it.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 13 July 2008 - 12:53 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#3 SilentOne

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Posted 13 July 2008 - 01:02 PM

I can't stand the editing feature here.

I wanted to add the following:

So of these three important cycles, we have the 4.5 year heading down, the 112 week (2.2 year) heading down. It is the 56 week cycle that has bottomed and is exerting upward pressure that we see right now. This may mean new highs for gold in the fall as the 56 week cycle works towards its crest. But once it tops out, it will be downhill for all three cycles. That should create a very bearish episode for precious metals at some point. This could well be after a blowoff top.

Posted Image

I explained in the previous post my dilemma for investing in gold at this time. With the 9 year and 4.5 year cycles due next year, will gold put in a lower or higher low. I don't really know. But certainly the best buys/bottoms have come off the bottoms or nest of lows involving the 4.5 year cycle and the 112 week cycle (2.2 year). These occured in 2001 and 2005. The secondary buys/bottoms have come when the 112 week cycle low comes in as the 4.5 year cycle is cresting. These occured in 2003 and 2007. The next due date in 2009 for an important bottom is in 2009 and all of this is depicted in my chart in the previous post.

cheers,

john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#4 mss

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Posted 13 July 2008 - 07:09 PM

:) Hi John, Sorry I cannot help with cycles. I follow people who use it but do not try to make any analysis based on cycle work, just a personal thing. I do use various things to base any buy or sell decisions I have. Attached is a simple chart with a suggested price trend for gold over SOME time period. Price IMO, will rise to the top channel TL and then fall to the bottom TL. Other factors may come into play and price might go very fast in either direction. :rolleyes: I am long some gold ETF and stocks with stops. Thanks for the charts and your analysis, nice work. 46 mss
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#5 SilentOne

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Posted 13 July 2008 - 10:39 PM

hi scott, You know the funny thing is I am still a HUGE gold /silver bug ... long term. I have been since 2001. I still own some gold and silver bullion leftover from my sales earlier this year, probably more than most own on this board. But I got scorched in 2004 holding the miners when I was way long when I should not have been. And ever since then I have had the utmost respect for being long when it was right to be long. So I missed some upside late last year. That's OK and I put much of that to not being able to follow the markets the way I wanted at the time. One thing I do know. I never want to endure the type of drawdowns I saw in 2004. I held long and rode the rally into 2006 the best I could. It is funny how the markets can humble you. :D I really look forward to seeing your charts on the $SPX and gold soon. They always give such an early tell that I have not see with other measures. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#6 SilentOne

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Posted 04 August 2008 - 08:16 AM

I am going to accumulate gold this week via DGP (2x long gold). I'd still like to see price touch the 50 week ema which sits at $864 today. Sentiment is still problematic, but there are less bulls than 3 weeks ago. Maybe sentiment can hit some extereme over the course of this week. BTW, this week will mark 112 weeks from the June 2006 low and 58 weeks from the late June 2007 cycle low by my count. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#7 SilentOne

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Posted 29 October 2008 - 09:01 PM

Here's some Gann on gold and a look at my long term bull/bear lines.

The first from a Gann point of view, is where to take the origin for the bull run into 2008 (1999 or 2001?). Here are the two views using simply gann angles. Both show likely support to come in at the 50% retrace and the 45 deg. angle.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Everyone should have a bull/bear line for their investing. Mine is the 20 and 50 dma, or 20 and 50 month moving averages. Gold has to do something pretty spectacular in the coming months to turn this chart around. In a nutshell, gold has to climb back above the $800 level and rally to new highs. I'm not betting on that scenario. The better option is to wait for the 8.5 year cycle lows to be confirmed.

Posted Image

In the meantime, everything is a trade.

Edited by SilentOne, 29 October 2008 - 09:06 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#8 mss

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Posted 30 October 2008 - 06:45 AM

:) Very nice work as always John. Thanks, and I agree on your point that everyone should have "buy/sell" point for trading and another for INVESTING. mss
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!

#9 wxman

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Posted 31 October 2008 - 11:53 AM

John,
What about this possible 8 year cycle in Gold and XAU?
http://i36.tinypic.com/52caw1.png

#10 SilentOne

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Posted 02 November 2008 - 08:30 PM

wxman,

While I think a low may be due here for the HUI/XAU (probably already bottomed first) and gold by early Nov. The longer term cycles for the HUI and XAU are unlikely to bottom until late 2009. It will take until the next 56 week cycle low before the larger cycles will find nested lows as depicted in this chart. Until then I think it will be best to trade the sector.

Posted Image

Some will argue where to take the origin of the current 8.5 - 9.0 year gold cycle. But this has been my take. And so far the 56 week cycles have worked very well for me.

Posted Image

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 02 November 2008 - 08:35 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain