Sentiment is problematic in the ST. We are 55 weeks along if I count from the late June 2007 as the last cycle low. Maybe I have to skip it and see where the August 16th low places us. Confusing for now and it is very difficult for me to get enthusiast about PMs. Oh at some point we can get a good rally, but I expect it to be a dud compared to last year. Let's see what happens when gold touches the 50/65 week ma which it needs to do this summer.
I should also add that we are now likely entering the most bearish phase of this bull cycle for the miners. Gold may grind higher as in 2004/2005, but the gold indices will be more difficult to predict. How can that be? Well as I have been posting since last year, the 4.5 and 9 year lows are likely to bottom at the next 56 week cycle low (summer 2009). We either consolidate or find a wide range until that bottom arrives.
Many goldbugs will recall the 2004-2005 correction. IMHO t was a mini gold stock bear. Note that it was the last 55/56 week cycle prior to the 4.5 year low bottom (which was a great bottom). I expect we are approaching the same type of market for the next 56 week cycle once it begins and puts in its high.
I will probably buy some gold on the next correction low so as not to be out of this market. It would replace some of the bullion sales from earlier this year.
It's all in the cycles and for now I'll let them speak to me. I could be all wet.
_________________
cheers,
john
Gold Hurst Analysis
#1
Posted 13 July 2008 - 12:34 PM
#2
Posted 13 July 2008 - 12:47 PM
timingsolutions
I explained in the previous post my dilemma for investing in gold at this time. With the 9 year and 4.5 year cycles due next year, will gold put in a lower or higher low. I don't really know. But certainly the best buys/bottoms have come off the bottoms or nest of lows involving the 4.5 year cycle and the 112 week cycle (2.2 year). These occured in 2001 and 2005. The secondary buys/bottoms have come when the 112 week cycle low comes in as the 4.5 year cycle is cresting. These occured in 2003 and 2007. The next due date in 2009 for an important bottom is in 2009 and all of this is depicted in my chart in the previous post.
Now it may well be that some larger cycle is influencing the current market or that fundamental events are driving the gold cycles at this time. So my caution towards precious metals may be misplaced, but this is the source of it.
cheers,
john
Edited by SilentOne, 13 July 2008 - 12:53 PM.
#3
Posted 13 July 2008 - 01:02 PM
I wanted to add the following:
So of these three important cycles, we have the 4.5 year heading down, the 112 week (2.2 year) heading down. It is the 56 week cycle that has bottomed and is exerting upward pressure that we see right now. This may mean new highs for gold in the fall as the 56 week cycle works towards its crest. But once it tops out, it will be downhill for all three cycles. That should create a very bearish episode for precious metals at some point. This could well be after a blowoff top.
I explained in the previous post my dilemma for investing in gold at this time. With the 9 year and 4.5 year cycles due next year, will gold put in a lower or higher low. I don't really know. But certainly the best buys/bottoms have come off the bottoms or nest of lows involving the 4.5 year cycle and the 112 week cycle (2.2 year). These occured in 2001 and 2005. The secondary buys/bottoms have come when the 112 week cycle low comes in as the 4.5 year cycle is cresting. These occured in 2003 and 2007. The next due date in 2009 for an important bottom is in 2009 and all of this is depicted in my chart in the previous post.
cheers,
john
#4
Posted 13 July 2008 - 07:09 PM
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
#5
Posted 13 July 2008 - 10:39 PM
#6
Posted 04 August 2008 - 08:16 AM
#7
Posted 29 October 2008 - 09:01 PM
The first from a Gann point of view, is where to take the origin for the bull run into 2008 (1999 or 2001?). Here are the two views using simply gann angles. Both show likely support to come in at the 50% retrace and the 45 deg. angle.
Everyone should have a bull/bear line for their investing. Mine is the 20 and 50 dma, or 20 and 50 month moving averages. Gold has to do something pretty spectacular in the coming months to turn this chart around. In a nutshell, gold has to climb back above the $800 level and rally to new highs. I'm not betting on that scenario. The better option is to wait for the 8.5 year cycle lows to be confirmed.
In the meantime, everything is a trade.
Edited by SilentOne, 29 October 2008 - 09:06 PM.
#8
Posted 30 October 2008 - 06:45 AM
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
#9
Posted 31 October 2008 - 11:53 AM
#10
Posted 02 November 2008 - 08:30 PM
While I think a low may be due here for the HUI/XAU (probably already bottomed first) and gold by early Nov. The longer term cycles for the HUI and XAU are unlikely to bottom until late 2009. It will take until the next 56 week cycle low before the larger cycles will find nested lows as depicted in this chart. Until then I think it will be best to trade the sector.
Some will argue where to take the origin of the current 8.5 - 9.0 year gold cycle. But this has been my take. And so far the 56 week cycles have worked very well for me.
cheers,
john
Edited by SilentOne, 02 November 2008 - 08:35 PM.