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Is this Bear Bait?


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#31 mogreen

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Posted 01 August 2008 - 07:54 PM

kimston:

save that one; it is market history !



Kimston: Since you have his letters hopefully from 1977 on, how many times did he call for a crash and world wide depression and war? I'll bet it's almost every year so he can say he called it. Yes it seems he called an August top but thats it. As i remember it the INDU high was about 2700 in August up from 1800 base nov-dec 1986. We had a straight up market from there to Aug '87 2700 a correction down to 2500 and then a rally into the endof september to 2630 area. What did he say in this period? From Oct 1 to the 16th we went south to 2200 the 200day.What did he say then? The following monday we opened down 200 points and closed down 500. closed somewhere around 1700's the 1986 base! What did he say then. Nowhere but nowhere did he claim in any publication or news service or TV that he made that call when he was interviewed in '87 or '88. I remain very SKEPTICAL and please don't refer to his self serving propaganda web site! I've always listened to him as an alternate way to measure the market and enjoyed his analysis. But all market gurus fail in the end... its just the nature of the game which changes constantly. From Granvile,Prechter,Zweig,Weinstein,Abby-Jo, and now the KING of fools Kramerica (these were the lead gurus at the time). We here at FF look at everything and make our own calls based on experience and our own techniques....There are no Guru's! :juggle: :cheer: Best MorGreen to make in this volitile market

Edited by mogreen, 01 August 2008 - 08:00 PM.


#32 mogreen

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Posted 01 August 2008 - 08:13 PM

Kimston...Were you a subscriber to his service then or did he send it to you years latter so you would subscribe. Ya know when i go to the horse races,at the front gate they sell their picks for 10 bucks. Get there by th 6th race and buy it and lo and behold they all have many winners. Unfortunatly those who bought when they came for the 1st race didn't have the same luck. Go figure! :lighten: Remember the #1 invention of all time? No, it not Al Gore's GloBloWWW. The printing press circa 1300's. Mark..I got it in. Quackkkk

Edited by mogreen, 01 August 2008 - 08:21 PM.


#33 humble1

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Posted 02 August 2008 - 03:28 AM

mo: btw, i totally agree with you about the apotheosis of gurus, any gurus. and arch is no exception. but, we are simply saying that arch DID INDEED make a widely publicized call, based on astro, well in advance of the august 1987 high and sunsequent crash which was spot on. anyway: ENOUGH ! ;)

#34 mogreen

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Posted 02 August 2008 - 10:47 AM

We'll have to respectfully disagree. And have respect for each others views. Respectfully yours, and a respectfull Quackkkkk. Ps....I still have not seen nor you the actual WSJ article from August 1987. Respectfully again PPs...I'll be gone all day Saturday so this should end it....Respectfully

Edited by mogreen, 02 August 2008 - 10:54 AM.


#35 Kimston

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Posted 03 August 2008 - 02:22 PM

Mo,
I never was a subscriber. Back in 1987 I had an account at Shearson. My broker there was heavy into cycles, Gann, pattern work by Edwards & McGee and Elliot, and all things technical analysis. He subscribed to a number of market newsletters and kept current copies in his office. If you saw something that interested you, he let you make photocopies (to hell with copyright infringement). Among those market letters was a subscription to Crawford Perspectives. I got a copy of the 87 top/crash call letter weeks before the top. Unfortunately, I didn't load up on puts to take advantage of the crash as I knew nothing about astro and had some E-wave count that was way off. I was actually long calls on S&P 500 futures, which I believe I bought on the Friday before the crash. Believe it or not I actually made something like a 30% gain on those, due to the volatility explosion, when I closed the calls out half way through the day of the crash.

I stand by my earlier statement regarding his market call. Regardless of his overall track record, no one can take away the impeccable 87 top/crash call by Crawford. I have no idea whether or not he made the call on FNN (in pre CNBC days) or elsewhere for public consumption, but he certainly made the call in his newsletter. I don't know what he said in subsequent letters, but the call for a crash was unequivocal and a crash is what we had. The interim swing down in September and the Friday before (on 10/16) included heavy selling and fear building, not a crash - that came Monday the 19th (I was watching the tape and intra-day real-time charts both days).

An important point that is being danced around here, really, is whether planetary alignments have any effect on human behavior/markets. There are many people out there whose mindset is - I can't understand it, it cannot be explained by science, therefore it cannot be so; and anyone who thinks there may be something to it is a fool. One can easily discover with out too much effort that the peak in August of 87 occurred during an important planetary alignment.

I don't claim to understand precisely why planetary alignments effect human behavior/markets, though there are some decent theories out there. However, an objective review of the empirical evidence shows that, at various times throughout history including 1987, they do indeed have an effect. To believe it was just a coincidence, that the 8/25/87 top to a ferocious 5-year bull market occurred on the day of a five planet alignment, is the real foolishness (the day of the Harmonic Convergence event - chanting and hand holding at various "sacred sites" - was 8/17, but the actual tightest alignment was on the 25th according to Crawford in his letter). That is, to dismiss any possibility of a correlation requires an act of faith instead of believing one's eyes.

I do my own work and have learned long ago that there are no gurus. The way I incorporate astro work is to be aware of the timing for eclipses, alignments, etc., and then look for any evidence of a potential market turn using all the other tools in my arsenal - divergences, sentiment, cycles, E-waves, geometry, etc. I'm also aware that many times astro events come and go with no apparent effect whatsoever. That doesn't mean they never have an effect. The good news, as I see it, is the more unenlightened people there are that believe planetary alignments have no effect on markets means mo' green for me if I can recognize the times an effect is occurring.

Regards,

Kimston


Kimston...Were you a subscriber to his service then or did he send it to you years latter so you would subscribe. Ya know when i go to the horse races,at the front gate they sell their picks for 10 bucks. Get there by th 6th race and buy it and lo and behold they all have many winners. Unfortunatly those who bought when they came for the 1st race didn't have the same luck. Go figure! :lighten: Remember the #1 invention of all time? No, it not Al Gore's GloBloWWW. The printing press circa 1300's.

Mark..I got it in. Quackkkk



#36 mogreen

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Posted 03 August 2008 - 05:03 PM

Kimston...Thanks for the background info and enjoyed your thoughtful response. Respectfully and best trading... Mo