6 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

I last posted an analysis on the Gold board. I'll move this thread here to keep it front and center. We were cautious until the next 55/56 week cycle low for both gold and silver. One can now see why.

Silver Hurst Cycle Analysis, Looking for larger cycle lows ahead

I haven't studied where the HUI and XAU are in their respective cycles, but the metals have some time to kill before their next major lows. Kimston and others that follow the PM cycles would attest to that.

Technically, silver put in a multi-month high in March (MACD weekly sell) and now time will be needed before the larger cycles bottom. Will it be a higher high as in previous cycles? Hard to say but I would not bet on it given the large cycles could be pointing down (4.5, 9, 18 year). The last instance of an 18 year low was 1993 for silver at ~$3.

We are now 52 weeks off the August 2007 low, and a cycle low can occur here or in the coming weeks. Silver is also 113 weeks along from the June 2006 low.

I sold most of my physical at 15.5 and 20.50 prior to leaving England. Now where does one start to accumulate?



cheers,

john

PS. Thank you GS for killing the metals here today. You guys are a piece of work and the very dark side of this market. I hope your firm gets it really wrong one day a la BSC.

[mss]

Hi John, Thanks for sharing your work. I have taken the privilege to "mess" with your chart, just for fun. If we take the '05 low and draw RED line through '07 low, about 119 weeks, we get a point estimated around 13.05. Now if we measure the break in the consolidation triangle at the top, BLACK lines and calculate the half point we get an estimate of 13.07. Now lets draw the typical TA triangle, GREEN lines and we get support at 13.03 (est) Now all this in "fun" but it does have some validity, IMHO. [attachment=8003:silver8148.jpg] Your thoughts on this is more than welcomed, please. Best to you, Scott 97

Edited by mss, 15 August 2008 - 07:58 AM.

[SilentOne]

hi scott,

I think those two bounce points (~12.50, ~10) are important for the following reason. If silver does not hold the overnight lows and trades as low as 10 later in August, then that would confirm the bear trend for the next year or so at a minimum. The reason I say this is because we would have a lower low than Aug. 2007, or a lower low year over year. So far in this silver bull run we have had higher lows each year. So this would be an important low IMO if it holds.



Nice doodling. I try not to put in too many lines when I do a hurst phasing chart. But you can see the two levels I am watching.

With silver there is no point in trying to buy the decline until you see some kind of consolidation at the lows. If you study past major corrections, silver will consolidate as it did in '04 and '06 at whatever low its destined for. That would be the opportunity to buy with a stop at the previous low.

The other side of this is gold. Gold has already tested the $784 level overnight, which is one of the Gann squares I posted a while ago. A break here would see a quick flush at some point to test $730. The metal stocks have to go up here for the metals to hold these important levels. That has to start today. So place your bets.

I had added some DGP in recent days which was premature, but the position is modest. I think long term the bull is intact, it is the next year that will be difficult to predict. I am relieved though to not have been sucked in to buying large in July. It was almost the exact same setup as March 2004. I got killed for it and vowed never to get caught out like that again if I was to continue playing in the PM.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 15 August 2008 - 09:55 AM.

[jack]

Guys Thanks heaps for these charts! I only accept outright gifts in PM markets. Done nothing since Oct 06. When COT confirms patience may be rewarded. Maybe allocate a little tradable this time.

[teknobucks]

bot a fair bit of SLV in ah fri.....also added 2 UNG never trade this PM but feel someone/bank is playing games here bwtfdik...lol

[beta]

Thanks for the charts and comments, SilentOne. Reviewing your $silver chart, I think your outlined targets perfectly define the anticipated bounce sequence of this correction. i.e., looking for a bounce to 16's, then another leg down to high 9 range.

[SilentOne]

hi beta,

i.e., looking for a bounce to 16's, then another leg down to high 9 range.

That is quite possible now as we probably saw a primary low last week. But that would be a wave "A" down as you suggest. Thing is this abc will likely take until next year. I will hold the silver bullion left over from this year's sales. But I will probably not trade this market until the next primary low. Too much volatility and risk to take big positions.

Note the break of the 25 month sma.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

cheers,

john