Jump to content



Photo

Market Direction? We're Being Chumped.


  • Please log in to reply
37 replies to this topic

#11 Drano

Drano

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 481 posts

Posted 16 August 2008 - 09:27 AM

Jeremy Siegel in his book The Future for Investors has *exhaustive* research on holding the original stocks in the S&P 500 and found that the returns beat the returns on the standard, continually updated S&P Index and did so with lower risk. And that in spite of the fact some 30 of the original index eventually went bankrupt. I haven't seen any research on the Dow but doubt it's much different. The so-called current darlings underperform after they are added to the index ( example is the tech stocks added just before the tech crash) and the ones deleted tend to outperform.

Thanks for that.

Edited by Drano, 16 August 2008 - 09:27 AM.


#12 Jnavin

Jnavin

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 2,126 posts

Posted 16 August 2008 - 09:36 AM

The Jeremy Siegel that Gary speaks of is a Professor of Finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and one of the smartest people on the planet.

July 18th: "Bottom likely reached, expect a test of the lows."

Edited by Jnavin, 16 August 2008 - 09:38 AM.


#13 linrom1

linrom1

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,957 posts

Posted 16 August 2008 - 02:39 PM

What you say Professor:

Attached Thumbnails

  • js.png


#14 eminimee

eminimee

    I don't care who's fur is flying...

  • TT Member
  • 14,307 posts

Posted 16 August 2008 - 02:59 PM

There is always a "Flock of Siegel's"..it's when the flock moves one way...well....you know the rest..

#15 Kimston

Kimston

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 604 posts

Posted 16 August 2008 - 06:39 PM

I'm sure he has a high IQ, but there are different types of intelligence. His intelligence, I suspect, is not the type that will make you money in the markets, which is typical of most economists and professors of finance. The July bottom will almost certainly be just a minor stop on the elevator down.

Kimston

The Jeremy Siegel that Gary speaks of is a Professor of Finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and one of the smartest people on the planet.

July 18th: "Bottom likely reached, expect a test of the lows."



#16 U.F.O.

U.F.O.

    U.F.O.

  • TT Patron+
  • 5,605 posts

Posted 16 August 2008 - 06:58 PM

"The July bottom will almost certainly be just a minor stop on the elevator down."

"Almost certainly"? There is very little involving markets that is almost certain.

U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~

#17 U.F.O.

U.F.O.

    U.F.O.

  • TT Patron+
  • 5,605 posts

Posted 16 August 2008 - 07:36 PM

People walk into casinos every day of the week and bet against the house. The house, of course, being the casino. For the house, it's an odds game. The games are tilted to give the casinos the advantage. By studying hard (i.e. card counting) you can increase your chances to virtually even...maybe even a touch better. Odds playing the stock market are not dissimilar. To play odds in investments one has to study the historical tape. The house does in casinos. If a price event only happens once in 23 years, what are my odds of it re-occurring within a short/intermediate timeframe? Zero, or close. So....what are we to make of the people who espouse "elevator down" or "crash alert" or $SPX to $800.00? In investments (or casinos) we call them roadkill. (1 chart)

U.F.O.

Posted Image
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~

#18 LongJohn

LongJohn

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 79 posts

Posted 16 August 2008 - 07:45 PM

"we call them roadkill"..... 'course, you might call them "visional" in the not to distant future, eh? It's definitely possible.

#19 U.F.O.

U.F.O.

    U.F.O.

  • TT Patron+
  • 5,605 posts

Posted 16 August 2008 - 07:53 PM

So you like to bet heavily when the count is against you also, eh...LongJohn? :D There's a financial reason why they keep building 5 billion dollar casinos. You. U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~

#20 LongJohn

LongJohn

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 79 posts

Posted 16 August 2008 - 08:19 PM

I LOVE to go and eat the seafood buffets over at Shreveport & Bossier City casios, but most of my non-discretionary cash has already been burned on this durn market !! Now if they depended on people like me there would only be ghost-town casinos. 'course too, all the movie stars and sports stars would be "starving artists" if they depended on my kind. I'll bet a lot of people on this site support'em all. That's what makes markets roar!!