37 replies to this topic

[gorydog]

In terms of violation of the long term trendline, we will have to test this long term line a few times before it may be penetrated. When all agree that the line will always hold forever, then it can fail. If there is another test, there will likely be another bounce. After that, the true future direction will appear. GD

[U.F.O.]

gory, since there's only one person, me, who even suggests it might be tough nut to crack, maybe it will last forever. U.F.O.

[OEXCHAOS]

A good thread gets snippy? Play nicely. M

[U.F.O.]

10/4 U.F.O.

[LongJohn]

Dangit Unidentified.....whadda thread. Some good thoughts and comments. Thanks.

I was looking again at the SPX....if you use a log plot the trend is already below the line and I guess it is bumping up against it as resistance presently.

Another thing that I always hear the volume guys harping on is testing a high volume low on lighter volume. Looking back at the last downturn starting in 2000, the SPX punched down to $1080 on 41B shares in March '01, then tested lower at $948 on 32B shares in September '01. It tried to rally, but went even lower to $760 on 50B shares in June '02 (which I guess invalidated the previous two), but finally tested lower at $755 on 48B shares in October '02, and rallied until now. All that verbage to say that it looks like a test of $1200 on 100B shares presently needs to be made on lighter volume to allow the market to advance, and that would continue below the line. Just a thought on why I think we will be going lower.
Thanks again.

[U.F.O.]

Thx. LJ. My objective in starting this thread was to get some thoughtful posts going. You were a helpful contributor to that and I thank you for it. Best. U.F.O.

[HoseB]

"A permanently high plateau". Sweet.

Isn't that a quote from 1929?

[eminimee]

Fork it..
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=2&i=p19975326419&a=115038230&r=2227.png