38 replies to this topic

[U.F.O.]

I've never paid much attention to "supercycle" theory until the threads over the past ocuple of days. I'm going to ask the questions here that others might not because they don't want to appear ignorant. This will be easy for me because I am ignorant on this subject. So here we go. When you say:

"We are now in the midst of a cyclical bear market smack dab in the middle of a (super-cycle) secular bear market which began in 2000 and will likely entend into the "teens."

Virtually every index has put in new, lifetime highs since 2000. How is that price behavior indicative of a longer term secular bear market? I can see the obvious cyclical bear markets between 2000 and late 2002 and late 2007 to the present. Why would it take 7 years for a bona-fide secular trend change to become apparent? (1 chart)

U.F.O.

[K Wave]

Martin Armstrong doesn't think the 310 year Super Cycle top comes until 2032 in his PEI work....FWIW

The last one in the early 1720's was a doozy of a top.

He does expect this coming fiasco into 2011 to be a bad downturn though.

There is another fellow who tracks the ups and downs of the demographic of the number of men 45-54, and lays it over the inflation adjusted DJIA with remarkable accuracy over the last 100 years. He says that sometime between now and 2012 or so, that demographic drops much more precipitously than it did during the Great Depression. Note that he did call for a low around 2003 based on his work, and then another big rally.

I actually saved his graphic from 2003, cuz this kind of unique way of looking at stuff at least gets my curiosity working.

I have not read his book. But from his webpage, you can get he gist of his argument.

"Our great American economy is an ocean whose total depth is made up primarily of the combined spending of all the various age groups. The heaving waves on the surface of this deep ocean are always the big-spending 45 to 54 year old group. These waves produce the peaks and troughs of the economy - the long-term booms and busts. They can and have both raised and sunk ships. We will soon have to man the lifeboats as the greatest demographic wave in American history crashes down with a thunderous roar! Like the great Titanic, there will not be enough time nor enough lifeboats on board, and only very limited rescue available."

http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/

I'll trust the charts as they unfold, but I am on high alert for an ill wind...

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Edited by K Wave, 23 August 2008 - 10:21 PM.

[K Wave]

For anyone interested, here is an audio interview with the Bust Ahead author from the end of 2007.



His bullish outlook a bit underwater at this point....

Edited by K Wave, 23 August 2008 - 10:58 PM.

[NAV]

"Our great American economy is an ocean whose total depth is made up primarily of the combined spending of all the various age groups. The heaving waves on the surface of this deep ocean are always the big-spending 45 to 54 year old group. These waves produce the peaks and troughs of the economy - the long-term booms and busts. They can and have both raised and sunk ships. We will soon have to man the lifeboats as the greatest demographic wave in American history crashes down with a thunderous roar! Like the great Titanic, there will not be enough time nor enough lifeboats on board, and only very limited rescue available."

I tend to run away as fast as i can, from those who spout this kind of grand rhetoric.

Edited by NAV, 24 August 2008 - 12:09 AM.

[NAV]

secular bear market which began in 2000

What nonsense ? A broad market like NYSE taking out it's secular highs? This kind of nonsense gets published by some well known perma bears and the rest of the fast lane, fast food crowd who lack independent thinking, embrace these theories. If someone said 2007 was a secular top, then i would at least give some benefit of doubt to their hopes/theories. Calling 2000 a secular top is not just bending the truth, but a state of perma-denial. Ask them, they would say that the new high in 2007 was a irregular wave B top and then display the famous DOW/GOLD charts. I will bet you, if we were to make a new high above 2007 sometime in the future, then 2007 would automatically get promoted to the secular top by these prophets and the new highs above 2007 would be another wave B irregular top. I thought the permas would capitulate after DOW made new all time highs. They did not. Then i thought they would when the SPX made all time new highs. They did not. And they never will. They are not called permas for no reason. As for the K-wave, it was due in the 70s. Then it was due for sure in the 80s. 90s it was a given. 2000, we are already in. 2012, it's etched in stone. Let's all reserve a spot for ourselves in the graveyard !

Edited by NAV, 24 August 2008 - 12:53 AM.

[humble1]

it's good to have historical perspective, but i disagree 100% with his timing, fwiw.

Edited by humble1, 24 August 2008 - 04:41 AM.

[bobalou]

let us say ,,all are wright..it is the view one takes..if you look at what the $ can buy,,over time..(could be less,,,gas ,,was $0.18 /gal.in the day,or more, as in a B + W TVs)...prices go up in most things ( in time ).and things make new price highs...but,,??,,,let us say,,I will use gold ,,one oz,,,,one might buy the same amount,of some things( gas,,value is about ) w/ the same oz....in a V L T view

[bobalou]

one more thing.......price is all about supply and demand,,,,,,,,,,more people = more demand......

[klono]

What bothers me is the a comparison between 1980 and 2010. In 1980 we were muddled in the huge budget deficits following the Viet Nam war. However, the baby boomers were in their 20's & 30's. Our most productive and taxpaying 40 years were in front of us. Now we have made the same financial mistakes in Iraq as we did in Viet Nam. However, the enormous baby boomer bubble of population is approaching retirement. As a result, the generation that worked the US out of this mess will be an enormous financial drag on the economy. On average, we will live much longer than did previous generations. Social security and medicare expenditures will grow exponentially compared with the working and producing components of our population. Our government is again using the devaluation of currency tool to reduce the real level of our debt. Our politicians are as bad as they have ever been in terms of dealing with the causes of problems as opposed to the symptons. Hence we have short term stimulus that actually make the real underlying problems (debt & financial psychology) worse. FDIC insurance, k

Edited by klono, 24 August 2008 - 09:06 AM.

[U.F.O.]

NAV has tapdanced all over the reasons for my introductory post. If anything, I would think we're still in a secular bull market that began approx. 1982 and every protracted selloff since has been of the cyclical bear variety. Did a secular bear begin in 2007? Jury's still out, but if we rally back and put in substantial new highs wouldn't that negate the premise? I was hoping this topic would attract some comment and I'm not disappointed so far.

U.F.O.