38 replies to this topic

[traderpaul]

NAV has tapdanced all over the reasons for my introductory post. If anything, I would think we're still in a secular bull market that began approx. 1982 and every protracted selloff since has been of the cyclical bear variety. Did a secular bear begin in 2007? Jury's still out, but if we rally back and put in substantial new highs wouldn't that negate the premise? I was hoping this topic would attract some comment and I'm not disappointed so far.

U.F.O.

Pull up a long term chart of CSCO....The tech giant....You don't need trend lines on this one......What super bull cycle?????

[U.F.O.]

tp, I'd suggest that the price action of one stock does not a market make. That's why markets have always been defined by indices, whether it was the DOW a century ago or broader indices like $SPX/NYSE/RUT today. Also, the NASDAQ has a special place in this discussion, being the only one that might arguably be said to have been in a secular bear since 2000 due to the dot com collapse. Even that one index, however, doesn't define the entire market.

U.F.O.

Edited by U.F.O., 24 August 2008 - 10:18 AM.

[cgnx]

All I know is that what happened in 2000 was the super top of something. I doubt we ever see that much interest in stocks for a very long time to come. With valuations and speculation unprecedented.

[U.F.O.]

"I doubt we ever see that much interest in stocks for a very long time to come."

How so? Look at volume numbers on any index you choose from 2000 compared to the last several years. I'd suggest that there is far more interest now than 8 years ago. Just because all the daytrading salons in the strip shopping centers have closed doesn't mean interest in the markets has waned.

U.F.O.

[cgnx]

Volume means nothing. Jokers churning stocks with black box signals? Naked short sellers? I have no idea where the volume comes from. Valuations I do. Average Joe buying and selling, not. Does somebody have actual numbers of retail volume versus commercial? How about the ability to leverage? Has that increased in the past 10 years? The derivative market has confounded any ability to surmise a conclusion. The numbers of straddles and spreads and convoluted types of trading going on today focused on scalping profits on a minute to minute basis has skyrocketed in the last ten years. This volume creation is meaningless. Its difficult to first off believe what info we receive, and then to draw conclusions based on it is lunacy. The point is, investing in stocks has been abandoned. The Cramers and the like espouse in and out. Investors Business Daily and much of the current pschology is buy and hold is dead. In favor of scalping. In the current environment, your only chance for a profit may be this method. But to believe this is the way to go forever is misguided. IMO this method is a loser. Zero sum game. You will win some and lose some. Much like gambling. Because the conviction and wisdom of proper investment techniques is lost, in favor of some system that beats the market. Have you ever heard of that before. Good luck finding the Holy Grail. I digress. This Super Cycle Theory is useless info really.

[cgnx]

O I forgot, unless you can count cards. But that is cheating. That is the advantage of the BIG BOYS. They can count the cards, it is lucky for us they don't cheat. Riiiiiight. Playing this game against the house, you'd have better have an investor mentality. Otherwise I doubt your playing with a full deck.

[Rogerdodger]

Here's my favorite bull who has been correctly bearish:
Bottom line: the haircut continues, but newer growth in the bald spots is increasingly on our radar screen, though by discussing this we don't want to give false confidence about nearer-term outlooks, since in my mind I'm toying with how it might unfurl in the next decade. For now it remains painful for those who didn't recognize the distribution assessed for 2007's first half or prematurely bought the early 'pitch' of bottom fishers. We'll get there, but we're not there yet; has been our ongoing clarion call. Continues.

(Some joked about our bearishness starting early in 2007; they didn't read it right. We stated it was a market moving higher in the superficial Averages; masking distribution as was already occurring stealth-like under-cover of all Senior Averages; so yes back at the time we thought the 'Averages' would move higher but that it was a sucker rally not to buy for or play, but to use to distribute or reverse direction, ahead of the pack. I said then and still believe that the forecast housing burst would proceed well into '09.)


All of this . . . meanwhile does not intend to imply any immediate, or even upcoming, respite to the housing-led financial duress (and more). Deleveraging as we properly forecast well over a year ago to be a centerpiece of the contraction, continues. And it is by no means at the point to reliably project the emergence wherefrom; though that is certainly something we eventually anticipate.
It thus leaves the market open for downside continuity; and even a precipitated 'drop' of greater magnitude than we've experienced during what I labeled a sort of 'Chinese Water Torture' decline, which was expected to be choppy or difficult to trade but aptly described as what (then) lay ahead. (We realize some pundits think the market rises big before risk returns; doubt things will be that convenient for those 'needing' rallies.) Above all; we have an ongoing credit debacle (not just crisis); a 'perfect storm' of epic proportions (as forecast uniquely back at the tail-end of 2006 and beginning of 2007, prior to projecting higher-highs in the Averages masking a classic distribution under-cover of a strong Dow and S&P); churning commodity pictures; continued sensitivity to oil; and mixed energy prices in other areas. It is to say we saw deleveraging as a 'big deal' before others, and we think there's plenty of 'food for thought' with respect to where this heads next. In the weeks ahead I'll expand on such postulations; which include the two timeframes in-which I suspect some bounces, within the downtrend.

LINK

[pdx5]

Volume means nothing. Jokers churning stocks with black box signals? Naked short sellers? I have no idea where the volume comes from. Valuations I do. Average Joe buying and selling, not. Does somebody have actual numbers of retail volume versus commercial? How about the ability to leverage? Has that increased in the past 10 years? The derivative market has confounded any ability to surmise a conclusion. The numbers of straddles and spreads and convoluted types of trading going on today focused on scalping profits on a minute to minute basis has skyrocketed in the last ten years. This volume creation is meaningless. Its difficult to first off believe what info we receive, and then to draw conclusions based on it is lunacy.

The point is, investing in stocks has been abandoned. The Cramers and the like espouse in and out. Investors Business Daily and much of the current pschology is buy and hold is dead. In favor of scalping. In the current environment, your only chance for a profit may be this method. But to believe this is the way to go forever is misguided. IMO this method is a loser. Zero sum game. You will win some and lose some. Much like gambling. Because the conviction and wisdom of proper investment techniques is lost, in favor of some system that beats the market. Have you ever heard of that before.

Good luck finding the Holy Grail.

I digress. This Super Cycle Theory is useless info really.

I vote above post one of the best!!

[cgnx]

I'm just yapping. But it amazes me how many folks put so much time and effort trying to game the system. It definitely beats the horses or dog track down here in Florida. Does anybody here have a wise investment? Something you believe strongly to be a fantastic company/commodity with huge upside? And I don't mean by next week. Does anybody do this anymore? Rhetoric question. I have my own answers that I have done my own research on. I know this is a traders site but investing isn't so off topic, is it?

[zman]

I'm just yapping. But it amazes me how many folks put so much time and effort trying to game the system. It definitely beats the horses or dog track down here in Florida.

Does anybody here have a wise investment? Something you believe strongly to be a fantastic company/commodity with huge upside? And I don't mean by next week. Does anybody do this anymore? Rhetoric question. I have my own answers that I have done my own research on.

I know this is a traders site but investing isn't so off topic, is it?

I agree, excellent posts cgnx, I dont play stocks, my wife has her roth, mutual funds, 401k I just play the futures..at least for me I havent a clue what is out there for a good investment in the future..its all be come a silly game...too many hedge funds in my book