38 replies to this topic

[mss]

Does anybody here have a wise investment? Something you believe strongly to be a fantastic company/commodity with huge upside? And I don't mean by next week. Does anybody do this anymore? Rhetoric question. I have my own answers that I have done my own research on.

If you have read most of my post, you know that is what I do with 80% of my money. I quit posting about them due to lack of readership interest.

I know this is a traders site but investing isn't so off topic, is it?

NO, and several posters have tried it on SWING WAVES BOARD, but for the most part quit. Same reason.
mss

Edited by mss, 24 August 2008 - 03:58 PM.

[milbank]

I'm just yapping. But it amazes me how many folks put so much time and effort trying to game the system. It definitely beats the horses or dog track down here in Florida.

Does anybody here have a wise investment? Something you believe strongly to be a fantastic company/commodity with huge upside? And I don't mean by next week. Does anybody do this anymore? Rhetoric question. I have my own answers that I have done my own research on.

I know this is a traders site but investing isn't so off topic, is it?

Well, I have mentioned before that I moved all of my long-term equity holdings into money markets. I have forgotten to mention, (because I almost forget about it myself ) precious metal holdings I bought in the beginning of the decade when Greenspan lowered rates so much. They are so far above what I bought them and are "rainy day" holdings that I just leave them alone.
but,
As I've said before, the one equity holding I have (I bought it late last year), an ETF, is NRO. I did this based on the high monthly dividend which I automatically re-invest. This is a real estate investment fund ETF. Mostly commercial, not too much retail amongst the commerical. In this sort of market, the only thing I see as viable for a long term play is something that has been battered, will continue to stay on the low side of it's price history and has a high dividend. I like that fact that this one pays out monthly so that each month I buy more shares that gives me a higher monthly payout the next month etc. and so on. I'm not interested in its per share value going up at this time. I'm actually hoping it will stay on the low end for a while while I bulk up my position. Eventually, maybe in a couple of years, commercial real estate will come back. The share price will go rise nicely and I will have a much, much larger position than I initially had (it grows appr. 30% a year at it's current price area) with none of that growth coming out of pocket.

Outside of that sort of investment, I plan to take the few percent that the money markets pay and wait for the inevitable to occur then, re-enter the equity market.

And, of course, do my daytrading which is with other monies entirely.

[U.F.O.]

to cgnx. Just in case no-one ever told you, black box (program) trading started in the mid-1970's. You ever noticed on CNBC when they say "curbs are in"? Those "curbs" exist because of the negative effect program trading had that contributed to the stock market crash of 1987. So....agitatedly posting about how the dark, evil program traders since 2000 have been the main contributor to the volume, and volatility of the recent markets is overlooking the fact that this large percentage of total volume has been around longer than some of the posters here on FF. On the lack of retail participants, your point is purely anecdotal with no substance without documentation. Actually, the fact that my shoe shine guy is no longer trying to give me penny stock advice is probably a good thing for the continued health of the market.

U.F.O.

[ed rader]

I'm just yapping. But it amazes me how many folks put so much time and effort trying to game the system. It definitely beats the horses or dog track down here in Florida.

Does anybody here have a wise investment? Something you believe strongly to be a fantastic company/commodity with huge upside? And I don't mean by next week. Does anybody do this anymore? Rhetoric question. I have my own answers that I have done my own research on.

I know this is a traders site but investing isn't so off topic, is it?

i do. i won't invest in a company unless i am convinced that it can double in a reasonable amount of time (6 mos-3 years). i've quit trading in and out of the market. call me a swing trader i guess .

ed rader

[cgnx]

to cgnx. Just in case no-one ever told you, black box (program) trading started in the mid-1970's. You ever noticed on CNBC when they say "curbs are in"? Those "curbs" exist because of the negative effect program trading had that contributed to the stock market crash of 1987. So....agitatedly posting about how the dark, evil program traders since 2000 have been the main contributor to the volume, and volatility of the recent markets is overlooking the fact that this large percentage of total volume has been around longer than some of the posters here on FF. On the lack of retail participants, your point is purely anecdotal with no substance without documentation. Actually, the fact that my shoe shine guy is no longer trying to give me penny stock advice is probably a good thing for the continued health of the market.

U.F.O.

Your talking mostly about institutional trading. I'm talking about every Tom Dick And Larry doing it now. Wizetrade and the like. Institutions have way to much power imho in this regard still.

Your point was stating volume means something. Mine was, I doubt it means much in this case.

[U.F.O.]

Your point was that somehow since 2000 the game has dramatically changed. That it's no longer a fair game, somehow rigged by various changes in the way it's played. It's the same game it was prior to 2000. Wizetrade (et al) change nothing.

U.F.O.

[cgnx]

Your point was that somehow since 2000 the game has dramatically changed. That it's no longer a fair game, somehow rigged by various changes in the way it's played. It's the same game it was prior to 2000. Wizetrade (et al) change nothing.

U.F.O.

I said nothing about 2000 starting a change. I did not use the word rigged.

My question to you then would be "Why has the volume gone up dramatically"? Do you have any facts in this regard? Who produces most of this volume? Investors or scalpers? I dare say a very small portion of todays volume is for investment purposes. Meaning longer than 1 year holding. So my point is that in the last 10 to 20 years a huge group of folks here and abroad have joined the minute to minute buying and selling with no clue as to value or intention to holding. Long one minute and short the next. Creating huge volume day to day. But this volume means nothing really.

[cgnx]

The game is always changing. In the last 15 years the game has changed dramatically. Today you have perhaps a billion folks worldwide who can access the internet and trade stocks for a few dollars. If you dont think that changes the game your not paying attention.

[U.F.O.]

You said nothing about 2000 starting a change?

"All I know is that what happened in 2000 was the super top of something. I doubt we ever see that much interest in stocks for a very long time to come. With valuations and speculation unprecedented."

The entire thread was predicated on whether or not some secular bear started in 2000. Your multi post theme centered on whether or not change had started.

"How about the ability to leverage? Has that increased in the past 10 years"

You didn't use the word rigged, but the context was that unless one wanted to scalp, you couldn't make a profit. Sounds like rigged to me.

"In favor of scalping. In the current environment, your only chance for a profit may be this method."

The bottom line here is the amount of individual speculation beginning in 1998 and into 2000 was not good for any market. Barbers quitting their jobs and daytrading for a living. You seem to think long-term investing is dead. Warren Buffet doesn't think so. This market is apparently acting as a large chip on your shoulder for some reason, you obviously don't like trading it here for reasons of your own. It shows in your posting.

U.F.O.

[OEXCHAOS]

NAV has tapdanced all over the reasons for my introductory post. If anything, I would think we're still in a secular bull market that began approx. 1982 and every protracted selloff since has been of the cyclical bear variety. Did a secular bear begin in 2007? Jury's still out, but if we rally back and put in substantial new highs wouldn't that negate the premise? I was hoping this topic would attract some comment and I'm not disappointed so far.

U.F.O.

Clearly, the Naz is still possibly in a secular Bear, but also clearly, the broad market--much to my surprise -- blew out notion out of the water in '04.

Now, I will say that I think we're looking at a secular Bear for the smaller caps now, but such distinctions aren't likely to make us much money.

Mark