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A Sobering Slide Show from the King of the VCs


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#1 SemiBizz

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Posted 15 October 2008 - 12:40 PM

Here is a set of slides from a presentation at Sequoia Capital made recently... If you are not familiar with them, they started up a few notable companies over the past 30 years or so... like Sun Micro, Cisco, Google just to mention a few... Not exactly dumbkoffs....

http://www.slideshar...rn-presentation


You better have a look at these if you think we are in for a quick rebound (quick meaning in the next 5 years or so)
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/tradingcoach1

#2 LoNotes

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Posted 15 October 2008 - 12:43 PM

Thanks Semi. Your commentary is missed. Any ideas about today's possibilities?

#3 SemiBizz

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Posted 15 October 2008 - 12:50 PM

Thanks Semi.

Your commentary is missed. Any ideas about today's possibilities?



my forecast for the week was posted on saturday evening before I left... no change.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/tradingcoach1

#4 SemiBizz

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Posted 15 October 2008 - 12:56 PM

Although I expect some retracement rally to occur next week... as we approach mid month on the 15th, I expect a lot of selling, probably not with the same amount of paranoia behind it... that's coming more likely on 21st, and then continue to accelerate near the end of the month...

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see a relief rally, even if it got kicked in the teeth on the open... next week looks like a rigged deal. Best guess, up early, down mid week to Thursday, up on Friday...

We'll just have to suffer some clowns proclaiming "It's a new bull market"...

And Now a look at the 7/2002 High Volume Monthly Low Support Structure...

First the SPX - 775 Target.

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Nasdaq - will lag the move with initial support at 1451, and lag the SPX on the way down but eventually test this 1192.

Posted Image

And Finally GS, I hope you read my Thursday Night Post... I stand on my prediction that GS will first test $70 and it will fall most likely on the same day with the SPX, now as it has made simultaneous lows for the last 5 lows in the market... If you read the thread, you saw it. So, GS is a VERY IMPORTANT indicator... It looks to me then that GS will be testing the 65.55 Low from July 02.

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Now what proof do I have? I have this proof.. that PRICE seeks VOLUME...as you can see I've done the homework for you. You don't have to think now about where the next low in the market is, it's right here...


Edited by SemiBizz, 15 October 2008 - 01:00 PM.

Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/tradingcoach1

#5 humble1

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Posted 15 October 2008 - 01:07 PM

not just a "V" bottom but a SPIKE bottom of historical import. don't be fooled by these people who are bearish at/near the lows. today's action is POWERFULLY BULLISH. the sooner you have the panic test, the better. consider for a moment the angle of advance EVEN FROM TODAY'S LOWS!!!! you bears are going to be pancaked. signed: one of the "clowns" ... LOLROTF !!!!!!

Edited by humble1, 15 October 2008 - 01:13 PM.


#6 traderpaul

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Posted 15 October 2008 - 01:32 PM

not just a "V" bottom but a SPIKE bottom of historical import. don't be fooled by these people who are bearish at/near the lows. today's action is POWERFULLY BULLISH. the sooner you have the panic test, the better. consider for a moment the angle of advance EVEN FROM TODAY'S LOWS!!!!

you bears are going to be pancaked.

signed: one of the "clowns" ... LOLROTF !!!!!!


Can you tell me how today's action is powerful bullish? Curious mind wants to know....
"Inflation is taking place now. Prices may not appear to be rising because they are making packaging smaller. " Rickoshay

#7 traderpaul

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Posted 15 October 2008 - 01:46 PM

By the way, today's pattern is a carbon copy of yesterdays pattern.....It that bullish?
"Inflation is taking place now. Prices may not appear to be rising because they are making packaging smaller. " Rickoshay

#8 stocks

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Posted 15 October 2008 - 02:01 PM

not just a "V" bottom but a SPIKE bottom of historical import. don't be fooled by these people who are bearish at/near the lows. today's action is POWERFULLY BULLISH. the sooner you have the panic test, the better. consider for a moment the angle of advance EVEN FROM TODAY'S LOWS!!!!

you bears are going to be pancaked.

signed: one of the "clowns" ... LOLROTF !!!!!!


Pride cometh before the fall.
:bear:

The problem is too much government. The solution is apocalypse, and it is coming.

You know the credit cycle has peaked when the scandals arrive. - Michael Burry