34 replies to this topic

[humble1]

first, i want to thank TT for this site and the opportunity to let a gasbag like me work out my market thoughts and read the thoughts of a lot of skilled market people. now for the gas: * widespread excessive pessimism and fear. * massive fed and monetary support. look at m2! * the t/a bottom work has been done and looking at the daily chart i see no reason for delay in a rally. it has stayed down here longer than i thought, but it would make for a fine bottom if it fires out of here right away. * seasonality will start working in the bull's favor any day now. and it should be strong for months. * fundamentals - valuations - are very supportive. * there is a ton of money in stock mutual funds and corporate balance sheets and on the sidelines in treasuries. yes, i am talking my book since i bought on 10/10 and 10/16 and more today. but if i didn't believe this, why would i have that book, lol? comments?

Edited by humble1, 23 October 2008 - 08:55 PM.

[dcengr]

Congratulations, you now know what every HS educated trader in the world knows. Toss in your regular classic technical indicators for a bottom (triple bottom, lower volume, lower VIX) and now you know what every 2 bit technician knows. Now if the polls didn't reflect the fact everyone knew that and bet on it, I'd agree with you.

[humble1]

the polls don't show anything of the kind: just the opposite. the sentiment background is overwhelmingly pessimistic from letter writers to the public.

[dcengr]

the polls don't show anything of the kind: just the opposite.

the sentiment background is overwhelmingly pessimistic from letter writers to the public.

Its not bad enough for what the market did. Go look at p/c ratios, average or otherwise. We ain't even near what it was at jan lows.

Go look at odd-lot data. Go look at AAII polls. There's been market upsets before and these have rolled over before, but they ain't anywhere near what they should be.

Everyone's been trained to buy bottoms for the past 10 years. Everyone.

[humble1]

we dropped 47% into the 10/10/08 low. and i don't see anything wrong with using the tools which we have seen work before to buy aggressively, especially when these metrics all line up. i don't agree with you about sentiment. forget what you hear here in this microworld. people have been buying bottoms for hundreds of years. read the WSJ and NYTIMES after the august 1982 lift-off and others.

Edited by humble1, 23 October 2008 - 09:18 PM.

[LarryT]

first, i want to thank TT for this site and the opportunity to let a gasbag like me work out my market thoughts and read the thoughts of a lot of skilled market people. now for the gas:

* widespread excessive pessimism and fear.

* massive fed and monetary support. look at m2!

* the t/a bottom work has been done and looking at the daily chart i see no reason for delay in a rally. it has stayed down here longer than i thought, but it would make for a fine bottom if it fires out of here right away.

* seasonality will start working in the bull's favor any day now. and it should be strong for months.

* fundamentals - valuations - are very supportive.

* there is a ton of money in stock mutual funds and corporate balance sheets and on the sidelines in treasuries.

yes, i am talking my book since i bought on 10/10 and 10/16 and more today. but if i didn't believe this, why would i have that book, lol?

comments?

My comment would be the bottom is not in from 1440 until we get below 800 and that will not be "THE" bottom just "A" bottom. Odds are you will have to ride a serious draw down and in a few months your 10-10 buy will have a profit. Today was a good example, a lower daily low on expanding volume says the 858 low today is not the low for this move. Good chance we can get a bottom below 800 Monday or Tuesday.

BTW, the native American has not called a bottom yet and he is one of the best at picking bottoms, never seen a top but he can sure pick a bottom.

Larry

[humble1]

larry: did you notice the post i made discovering the perfect 12/9/94 -> 3/24/00 -> 10/10/08 fibo relationship and what do you think of it?

Edited by humble1, 23 October 2008 - 09:26 PM.

[pcp]

the polls don't show anything of the kind: just the opposite.

the sentiment background is overwhelmingly pessimistic from letter writers to the public.

Its not bad enough for what the market did. Go look at p/c ratios, average or otherwise. We ain't even near what it was at jan lows.

Go look at odd-lot data. Go look at AAII polls. There's been market upsets before and these have rolled over before, but they ain't anywhere near what they should be.

Everyone's been trained to buy bottoms for the past 10 years. Everyone.

COT data show that large-specs have been adding to their long position in SPX during this entire down turn. They are trying to DCA to get ahead just enough to dump everything for break even or small loss/gain. I guess the march bottom got them thinking there is some money to be made from the IT rallies. I don't want to be around if/when they realize that past performance does not guarantee future results.

[dcengr]

COT data show that large-specs have been adding to their long position in SPX during this entire down turn. They are trying to DCA to get ahead just enough to dump everything for break even or small loss/gain. I guess the march bottom got them thinking there is some money to be made from the IT rallies. I don't want to be around if/when they realize that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Yes I pointed out that fact a few weeks ago. Those guys are loaded up the hilt and up ******** creek without a paddle. If things get worse, many of them are gonna blow up. I bet they're margined up the a-s-s too.

[LarryT]

larry:

did you notice the post i made discovering the perfect 12/9/94 -> 3/24/00 -> 10/10/08 fibo relationship and what do you think of it?

Did not see that one. This is a once in 300 years market now, be extra cautious for at least 3-4 more weeks.