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a brief review of the bull case


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#21 pcp

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Posted 23 October 2008 - 09:58 PM

no, i'll let you do your own research work. it is the most followed and best known on that subject so you should be able to root around and come up with something. and the fact that you ask for a link shows you have no clue about the service or the research.

LOL!



IOW, you are making things up in defense of the bull case. That's what I suspected.

If you want to know how I get meaningful buy and sell information from COT data, please ask or have your "friend" ask here. I will be happy to provide the info. :P

#22 humble1

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Posted 23 October 2008 - 10:04 PM

it's really only used as background data by any good trader i know. as far as buy and sell as in close timing work, it is useless. there is the time lag for one thing but even if you knew it daily it would not help much. i like it best in commodities when the fundamentals are firming up and you can see inventory being bought by end users. it has been helpful with corn over the last few years. you don't have a clue, lol. but that's okay, it's fun hearing your views.

Edited by humble1, 23 October 2008 - 10:06 PM.


#23 humble1

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Posted 23 October 2008 - 10:09 PM

and, uh, by the way: these big specs who you say are such dumb money year in and year out ... uh ... how do you think they got rich ... and stay rich enough to be big specs year in and year out? lolrotf

#24 Gary Smith

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Posted 23 October 2008 - 10:34 PM

dc:

actually, i do and i can see that you don't. there is a service which tracks open interest and changes therein and makes recommendations as a result. the action of large traders is closely watched.

so, i guess it is you who really doesn't have a clue about what kind of research is out there.

you are both completely wrong about that. a friend who takes it sends me the results and has done so for years. large trader buying and adding is a classic buy sign, but early.



I believe if you go back to the bull market of the 90s you will find that the large specs were net short in the S&P futures almost the entire decade. You may want to check but as I recall you could count on one hand how many COT reporting periods they were net long.

#25 traderpaul

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Posted 23 October 2008 - 10:35 PM

and, uh, by the way: these big specs who you say are such dumb money year in and year out ... uh ... how do you think they got rich ... and stay rich enough to be big specs year in and year out?


lolrotf


The COT were net LONG at the market right at the top.....Source: The Kirk Report....
The COT usually hedge their positions.....
"Inflation is taking place now. Prices may not appear to be rising because they are making packaging smaller. "— Rickoshay

#26 humble1

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Posted 23 October 2008 - 10:42 PM

i think it is the trend that is important early before turns - lows. as i said, i don't use it as a timing tool. but getting longer or - if you want - less short as the situation dictates may be what the signal is. and this would filter out the part that is a hedge and thus not really a net short in position, i guess. i am not sure the signal i am talking about is as simple as getting a COT report and putting in an order for those who use it as i have described. a trader could be short futures as a hedge and lift some of the hedges, still be short futures, and thus be getting longer or "loading up" in the hyperbole in his overall position. i have actually done that myself.

Edited by humble1, 23 October 2008 - 10:51 PM.


#27 humble1

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Posted 23 October 2008 - 11:05 PM

this wasn't about that silly service on the e-mini COT data was it? surely not!

#28 skyymaster

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Posted 23 October 2008 - 11:18 PM

The great thing about this site is not only is it educational but you really get some great entertainment drama. It is obvious that we have 2 great traders, one has a very Bullish case (sentiment) the other Bearish (sentiment). Who to believe ? Truth is you should be bullish and bearish but cautious, very cautious in whichever way you trade. Especially with VIX - Volatility so high. There is no reason IMO to stick to one sided trade. But, many do as they are not daily traders. Heck, even NAV who is an aggressive trader is not trading this volatility. Something has to be said for that level of discipline. But, patient does pay for those willing to wait for the market to come to them. Humble has made some very strong arguments about the bullish case and was pretty much on the money with the 10/10 low Astro time/date forcast. Now, we have not broken those lows yet. However, the Long Term "Trend" is still down. Let's not forget our friend the "Trend" Now, DC sees something lurcking that warrants extra caution. Nothing wrong with that. He is FLAT. Great strategy to have in this environment. I myself also have that little voice that says what if 10/10 is the bottom and it is a big 'IF' for me. But, the cautious side of me "says" not to "trust" anything at face value (does that ring a bell with Financials :lol: fiasco). The fact that 10/10 low is in the news every single day makes me cringe. Still another strategy that has worked for me is hedging with puts and calls on same stocks and buying puts on stocks that are going to tumble, i.e. DECK while buying calls SPY at certain points. So, you see you can really play both sides and more importantly you can balance it out with different etfs and stocks. As Bob would say, keep up the good work. Safe trading ;)
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#29 Funky Monk

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Posted 23 October 2008 - 11:37 PM

h1, thanks for your comment on the other thread anyway new information has been brought to light one of my 'old teachers' emerged from his cave and e-mailed me some numbers 781..........soon i will post a chart later on this thread btw, short ES from 913 where the 7e crossed back under the 36e (3 minute) peace

#30 danzman

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Posted 24 October 2008 - 12:05 AM

I've got a mechanical system that uses COT data. Large traders...I don't care. Commercials...don't even look at 'em. That leaves just one. D
I don't make predictions, I just react.