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I keep telling you folks


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#1 dcengr

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Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:08 PM

All I see day after day is people breaking out charts, technical crap, etc. None of this will matter. Everyone knows this info. Everyone is trading on this info. Based on the data of the last 100 years, technical, fundamental, or what not, this is the best buying opportunity of the century. I know this. You know this. My dog knows this. Do you think there's fear here? There's rationality here. Markets, after this sort of massacres, do not make a bottom on rationalities. You need to know how stupid people can get. The same idiots that let the housing bubble get this bad are still in the market using "rational thought" to justify stock prices. If they were that stupid, you can bet they'll let this sucker drop to the downside almost as bad. Do not play a game of chicken with stupid. Was there rationality at the top? No. Trying to pick a top at the 2000 bubble was suicide because its very hard to tell how silly people can get. Trying to pick a bottom here is also suicide, you just don't know it yet. I'm not seeing anyone jump out of windows yet, and by the time this is over, I feel people WILL BE JUMPING OUT WINDOWS. This is based on GUT FEEL, so take it for what its worth. All my metrics, which is based on last 100 years, tell me to buy. Unfortunately, my gut tells me STAY OUT. Fortunately for me, my gut is smarter than me.
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?

#2 cgnx

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Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:33 PM

I think being 1/3 in is a smart move here. Trying to get the bottom is insane as trying to sell the top. So if you are waiting for the TELL, I think you are playing chicken. Greed kills on both ends. You are being greedy also. Passing up on great value, trying to score even better value is a crapshoot. DCA from here is a disciplined way to go that makes alot of sense. Playing chicken and gambling on gut is no strategy. The old gutometer may be broke when the time comes.
If it can be cornered, it will.

#3 dcengr

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Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:40 PM

Thank you for affirming my suspicions. Do me a favor. When you finally capitulate and start talking about Great Depression 2, please let us know, because I will be watching. Do you think I am waiting out of greed? You have no idea what could happen. In the end, if it plunges you will buy. If it plunges again, you may buy. If it keeps plunging you won't know what to do. I will tell you what will happen. Since you won't know what to do, your broker will know what to do. He will send you a margin call and sell it for you. This is what happened in 1929. Its the deer in headlight syndrome. You will not sell until its sold for you.
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?

#4 trioderob

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Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:43 PM

I did an experiment today. was in 5 stores in san diego (art supply, watch shop, cloths shop, coffee shop, and other typ mall shops) asked 5 different sales people the same thing "how is business lately ?" all 5 told me the same thing: "in the last 2 weeks things have come to a total standstill" "nobody comes into the store" "its dead - we have not sold a thing" "we are #$%^ - we are not going to make it" went into a camera shop where you had to beg for help on a sat. at noon this time 2 sales people ran to help me the moment i walked in

Edited by trioderob, 25 October 2008 - 03:49 PM.


#5 ed rader

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Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:45 PM

I think being 1/3 in is a smart move here. Trying to get the bottom is insane as trying to sell the top. So if you are waiting for the TELL, I think you are playing chicken. Greed kills on both ends. You are being greedy also. Passing up on great value, trying to score even better value is a crapshoot. DCA from here is a disciplined way to go that makes alot of sense. Playing chicken and gambling on gut is no strategy. The old gutometer may be broke when the time comes.



i'm a 1/3 in and if i hadn't taken a draw down i'd be all the way out because i think the market bottoming here is just too predictable.

my guess is we are going lower. maybe much lower like dcengr says. bottoming after one more flush is just a little too cute for me; i don't think it's going to be that easy.

ed rader

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#6 ed rader

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Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:48 PM

I did an experiment today.

was in 5 stores in san diego


asked 5 different sale people the same thing


"how is business lately ?"


all 5 told me the same thing:





"in the last 2 weeks things have come to a total standstill"

"nobody comes into the store"

"its dead - we have not sold a thing"

"we are #$%^ - we are not going to make it"



usually when i ask that question -- and i do alot -- the cashier thinks i'm talking about the last 15 minutes :lol: .

i'm a contractor so i travel around silicon valley and i talk to a lot of people. all businesses very slow, including mine. this time of year is usually very busy for the building trades because everyone is trying to get projects wrapped up for the holidays.

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 25 October 2008 - 03:49 PM.


"Everybody's got plans... until they get hit."

-- Mike Tyson

http://erader.zenfolio.com/

#7 ogm

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Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:49 PM

This time is different.

#8 trioderob

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Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:51 PM

This time is different.





can you please go into more detail and expand on this ?

#9 dcengr

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Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:53 PM

This time is different.


It is, you just don't believe me. The record high vix should tell you that it is. And I have other metrics that tell me it is. You keep buying like its not different and that's the problem.

Its not going to matter what I tell you. Never has. After it dumps 10%, you will think its bottom and buy again. After it drops another 10%, you will think its bottom and try again.

But after the first 10% drop, you should really look back at my post and think before you try buying the next 10% drop. This is my public service announcement to you. Since you are not afraid, I will be afraid for you.
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#10 skott

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Posted 25 October 2008 - 04:13 PM

alot of people on CNBC friday cheerleading and talking about a bottom. some were insulting and calling people scaredy cats for not buying. what a farker he was. I'm waiting for Maria Barteromo to suggest shorting the market. She hasn't done that yet and last time she did IT WAS the BOTTOM