I keep telling you folks
#1
Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:08 PM
#2
Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:33 PM
#3
Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:40 PM
#4
Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:43 PM
Edited by trioderob, 25 October 2008 - 03:49 PM.
#5
Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:45 PM
I think being 1/3 in is a smart move here. Trying to get the bottom is insane as trying to sell the top. So if you are waiting for the TELL, I think you are playing chicken. Greed kills on both ends. You are being greedy also. Passing up on great value, trying to score even better value is a crapshoot. DCA from here is a disciplined way to go that makes alot of sense. Playing chicken and gambling on gut is no strategy. The old gutometer may be broke when the time comes.
i'm a 1/3 in and if i hadn't taken a draw down i'd be all the way out because i think the market bottoming here is just too predictable.
my guess is we are going lower. maybe much lower like dcengr says. bottoming after one more flush is just a little too cute for me; i don't think it's going to be that easy.
ed rader
#6
Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:48 PM
I did an experiment today.
was in 5 stores in san diego
asked 5 different sale people the same thing
"how is business lately ?"
all 5 told me the same thing:
"in the last 2 weeks things have come to a total standstill"
"nobody comes into the store"
"its dead - we have not sold a thing"
"we are #$%^ - we are not going to make it"
usually when i ask that question -- and i do alot -- the cashier thinks i'm talking about the last 15 minutes .
i'm a contractor so i travel around silicon valley and i talk to a lot of people. all businesses very slow, including mine. this time of year is usually very busy for the building trades because everyone is trying to get projects wrapped up for the holidays.
ed rader
Edited by ed rader, 25 October 2008 - 03:49 PM.
#7
Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:49 PM
#8
Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:51 PM
This time is different.
can you please go into more detail and expand on this ?
#9
Posted 25 October 2008 - 03:53 PM
This time is different.
It is, you just don't believe me. The record high vix should tell you that it is. And I have other metrics that tell me it is. You keep buying like its not different and that's the problem.
Its not going to matter what I tell you. Never has. After it dumps 10%, you will think its bottom and buy again. After it drops another 10%, you will think its bottom and try again.
But after the first 10% drop, you should really look back at my post and think before you try buying the next 10% drop. This is my public service announcement to you. Since you are not afraid, I will be afraid for you.
#10
Posted 25 October 2008 - 04:13 PM