36 replies to this topic

[atlasshrugged]

This time IS different. The greatest credit-financed mania aided and abetted by looser and many imprudent "reforms" along with the derivatives boom have all come to a grinding halt....it's gonna take years to accept, reform practices and get back to basics/block & tackle, shift cultural "common-sense" mentalities (e.g. the DCA model, the market always has a positive return after XX years, etc.) and most-of-all, UNWIND and start saving again. I say it all ends about when sin city goes belly-up with at least 2 of the marquee hotels folding (no pun intended). But there WILL be rallies

Question, What does this market has to do to make you bullish?

boyd gaming is going to go under ...they tore down the stardust which was their cash cow and now have an 8 billion dollar incomplete Eschelon Place that they have halted construction.

Tropicana will also fold ..its bankrupt right now

is that the 'city center'? last time i was there, it was in its early building phases...probably hard to get funding these dayz. neither of those are what i'd deem the 'marquee' hotels . we've been thinking about headin out there again soon.....definitely surprised at how high the off-season rates are these dayz and the big reason for my statement above.....

city center is going to make it..they got their funding...its owned my mgm

[VolPivots]

ok TP, here's a fundamentally based forecast using yr-on-yr earnings growth rates....pure guesstimates with my own biases built-in wrt cycles, unemployment, etc. assumes a constant 17 P/E ratio (this is the big unknown), which is where we ~ currently trade at SPX 800 and also the ratio during most of Cal06/07. earnings growth troughs first and then needs to go back above the 0%/no growth line for the return of a cyclical bull market. currently, we have yet to even have troughed, though i think it's quite possible the next 1-3 qtrs....then begins the "bull divergence" buildup, SPX puts in it's nominal low during 2nd half Cal10, then it's off to the races Cal11/12.

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[traderpaul]

ok TP,

here's a fundamentally based forecast using yr-on-yr earnings growth rates....pure guesstimates with my own biases built-in wrt cycles, unemployment, etc. assumes a constant 17 P/E ratio (this is the big unknown), which is where we ~ currently trade at SPX 800 and also the ratio during most of Cal06/07. earnings growth troughs first and then needs to go back above the 0%/no growth line for the return of a cyclical bull market. currently, we have yet to even have troughed, though i think it's quite possible the next 1-3 qtrs....then begins the "bull divergence" buildup, SPX puts in it's nominal low during 2nd half Cal10, then it's off to the races Cal11/12.

They wrote everything but the kitchen sink in this quarter.....Next quarter they will have better earning....the stocks will go up...

[dcengr]

On Wednesday, October 15 we had a big down day. One where you were still bullish. The following day a pit trader in the big S&P committed suicide, after some very large losses on that particular day.

IT

I made money on all my long trades in october. Luck? Smarts? Who cares? I made money. I also made money on all the short trades I made in october.

Dang, I made money all month. And the month before that. And to think of it, every month of this year so far.

As for the guy who committed suicide, that's a shame. But I don't think it marked a bottom.

[traderpaul]

Dc, i was going to write a post telling folks not to use past data and not to trade this market with your guts (believe)....You have to listen to this market....Trade in market with no bias.....If you have to have a bias, watch the opposing view and ignore the folks that have the same views as yours.....This market does not know who is long or short and she does not care....Always makes the majority wrong, period.

[Kimston]

Dc, i was going to write a post telling folks not to use past data and not to trade this market with your guts (believe)....You have to listen to this market....Trade in market with no bias.....If you have to have a bias, watch the opposing view and ignore the folks that have the same views as yours.....This market does not know who is long or short and she does not care....Always makes the majority wrong, period.

Actually, Investors Intelligence readings showed a majority of bulls for almost the entire bull market, punctuated with a few reading of bears over 50% at the bottom of the larger corrections.

Kimston

[diogenes227]

On Wednesday, October 15 we had a big down day. One where you were still bullish. The following day a pit trader in the big S&P committed suicide, after some very large losses on that particular day.

IT

I made money on all my long trades in october. Luck? Smarts? Who cares? I made money. I also made money on all the short trades I made in october.

Dang, I made money all month. And the month before that. And to think of it, every month of this year so far.

As for the guy who committed suicide, that's a shame. But I don't think it marked a bottom.

I jumped out a window Friday. It marked my bottom.