Jump to content



Photo

McClellan


  • This topic is locked This topic is locked
128 replies to this topic

#111 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,568 posts

Posted 13 October 2009 - 07:27 PM

Unless the market firms like crazy into the close, it appears There will be a sell on both the NYSI and NASI, although it's a close call on the NASI. I have the long ETF basket up 1.5 percent (at the moment...) for the few days of the NYSI buy signal.

Once again the short leverage ETFs will be in play -- SDS, QID, TWM.

More later. :)

Wouldn't you know it? NASI rallied back to flat -- up .41 pts on StockCharts; I have it up 1.77 pts in Trade Station. NYSI is on a sell, barely. And the futures are solidly higher at the moment in the overnight so it is possible this is just a minor dip to the zero line on the Oscillators before the next leg of the rally takes off. Tomorrow may tell. Maybe.

Amazing. This bull move is brutal. Can't seem to get a meaningful pull back, and the upside at this point is down right scary. Oh, well... What's a typical characteristic of a bull market -- if you're not on the train, it don't let you, not without making you grit your teeth and rattle your knees.

As they used to say on Hill Street, let's be careful out there. :huh:

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#112 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,568 posts

Posted 14 October 2009 - 02:57 PM

Long, long, long -- SSO. QLD, UWM. NYSI back on buy. NASI continuing buy. Potential new up leg in the market. Good trading to everyone. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#113 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,568 posts

Posted 16 October 2009 - 08:44 PM

Wasn't around for the close but it was a sell. The leveraged long ETF basket lost 1.4 percent on this two-day whipsaw buy signal.

Back in the short funds -- SDS, QID, TWM.

It appears the last few days of whipsawing action in the NYSI was a "ledge", as in "ledges are made to fall off of." Given that context, the 1.4 percent loss was rather benign. If the fall continues, it may be the best case scenario the bears have had since March.

By the way there was an absolutely great discussion of the McClellan by fib 1618 in this Fearless Forecasters thread today:

fib 1618 on MCSUM, etc.

Good trading to everyone. :)

http://stockcharts.c...51&are=7096.png

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#114 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,568 posts

Posted 19 October 2009 - 02:59 PM

Whipsawing back to a buy on the NYSI/NASI. The bulls give no mercy to a bear signal. Frustrating and tiring on both sides. :(

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#115 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,568 posts

Posted 20 October 2009 - 03:03 PM

The whipsaw continues. Let's see if the bears can make any money as the NYSI/NASI goes to a sell again, and attempts once again to fall on the "ledge" in the chart above. On the last sell two days ago the short leveraged ETF basket lost 1.72 percent. The current long leveraged ETF basket from yesterday's buy has lost .94 percent. Back in the short basket -- SDS, QID, TWM. Good trading to everyone.

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#116 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,568 posts

Posted 27 October 2009 - 10:01 AM

The basket of short leveraged ETFs -- SDS, QID, TWM -- gained 5 percent since the NYSI sell signal five days ago and is at the moment backing off. Given how oversold the NYMO is, it might be wise to tighten stops, and at the least make this a free trade with a stop at break-even. For what it's worth, it wouldn't surprise me if this morning's sudden news-related spike to the down side on the consumer confidence report was the short-term climax of this downside swing. Good trading to everyone. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#117 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,568 posts

Posted 29 October 2009 - 02:17 AM

Just posted this on a discussion of the McClellan on Fearless Forecasters. Copying it here for this thread's record.

"That ominous looking ledge on the summation index" - Remember that post from me. It did fall off the cliff and it's getting ugly. Too bad i took profits early.

Now that's past. Here's the question to the experts. NYSE MCO is close to breaking the March lows. If it does, will it mean anything ?


Since the McClellan Oscillator and Summation index are just contexts for which side of the market to be on (as posted on Swing Waves, I have been on the short side since 10/20 when we finally fell off that ledge) I think a break of the March lows only means we are really oversold and when this decline ends it will probably be a great buying opportunity. I say "probably" only because none of this has happened yet and if this current decline is a resumption of the big pre-March bear, the market can do whatever it wants and tearing out an Oscillator bottom would be just a symptom of that.

As for what various levels of the Summation index can indicate in the market, Fib 1618 had a great discussion of some of that not long ago. I suggest everyone look that up under his posts, or I have a link to it near the end of McClellan thread I've been tending in Swing Waves.

In the meantime, I'd like to suggest if this is a typical McClellan cycle, we should bounce any minute, decline again in a week or so from when that bounce begins to either retest the lows or put in a low above a low with ideally the Oscillator putting in a divergence, rally again for another week or so, decline again in another divergent low above a low -- into what is commonly known in McClellan-land as a "buy spike"; and thus form a complex bottom in the Oscillator, confirmed by an up turn in the Summation index and have a strong market rally from that point until probably sometime in January or so. You know -- "the Santa Claus rally."

Probably. :)


Need to note that the short leveraged ETF basket -- SDS, QID, TWM -- is up nearly 11 percent since the October 20 sell in the NYSI. Given how quickly that profit has been generated and how greatly oversold the NYMO is, I'm pulling stops up to insure not giving up much of that profit. Will be closely watching tomorrow's price action unless the stops are taken out on the open. (Probably will be closely watching the price action regardless :D .)

Good trading to everyone. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#118 edamat

edamat

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 20 posts

Posted 29 October 2009 - 08:32 PM

diogenes: per your posting at FF, are you still in short leverages with lock-in profits, or switch to long? thanks

#119 IYB

IYB

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 7,110 posts

Posted 01 November 2009 - 12:45 AM

Great work and excellent string! Thanks diogenes...D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#120 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,568 posts

Posted 02 November 2009 - 03:31 PM

diogenes:

per your posting at FF, are you still in short leverages with lock-in profits, or switch to long?

thanks

Sorry. I overlooked your question last week. On the day after the Fearless Forecast post above, stopped out half the position in leveraged short ETFs, for a 9 percent gain. The rest of that position is currently up 13.4 percent. Shouldn't a done it -- leaving some significant moolah on the table for this trade as a result...so far... :cry:

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."