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Fearless Forecast


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#11 ogm

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 07:59 AM

Mark, what is your thesis ? I am pretty positive but I wouldn't be as dramatic as you apparently are. I think we're about to get a giant cushion for the economy, but it will still take some time to rebuild consumer balance sheet before the massive economic upsurge. Just curious what you're basing your forecast on.

#12 ogm

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:02 AM

Swiss Trader, I hope you're not heavily short here, or you're going to have your own little personal "great depression". Also, you should probably stick with trading something that you know. Like Swiss Frank. Or UBS the great swiss bank UBS ;) With all that anti american mood in the world, you may get sucked into a wrong mindframe easily.

Edited by ogm, 08 December 2008 - 08:06 AM.


#13 TradingUp

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:05 AM

I have learned from the school of hard knocks that to make a major prediction of that nature, it is better to wait for some hard evidence before pronouncing. It's fine to "hold an opinion or a view" but to state it with such conviction and maintain credibility, one should simply have more evidence on one's side.

#14 VolPivots

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:05 AM

Maybe you'll be right Mark, but if so, I'm guessing the trigger will be a defacto devaluation of the US Peso........real returns would be ???

#15 mss

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:08 AM

you have no argument from me at all....I have us in an X wave up but if we find ourselves above 1010 spx and it becomes support.....I'll give it better odds that we have a very significant low in place. This market did it's finest last week to disembark those of bovine persuasion...a close today above 885 ...1010 area is in the cards... minimum..


:)
FWIW, it is still suggested that current rally top on SPX is 1005ish, with a lot of rest. at the 923-945 area.
Bottom support around 700-695, HOWEVER should that fail we are looking at 600-605 for THE bottom. :o

Maybe post more later. B)
mss


The move - IF up - would fit in the above two posts. Do not rule out a deep retest of the low first. Interesting 1005ish & 1010 is close, even tho up rest. range is different. But then again "T" is better at this than I am.
Best to all,
mss

Edited by mss, 08 December 2008 - 08:08 AM.

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#16 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:08 AM

Mark, what is your thesis ? I am pretty positive but I wouldn't be as dramatic as you apparently are. I think we're about to get a giant cushion for the economy, but it will still take some time to rebuild consumer balance sheet before the massive economic upsurge. Just curious what you're basing your forecast on.


The cushion is going to be spent and saved, both good. The base we're at is artificially low and appears worse than it is. The psychological set up here is very constructive. Savings aren't going to be entirely squandered so while we're in for a surge of demand, we're also in for a dramatic and ongoing improvement in the balance sheets of America. Also, most small businesses are started out of pocket or by borrowing against one's home. With rates where they are and are headed, there's going to be a surge in small business formation. What drives employment growth in this country?

Is it Big Auto? :lol:

Remember, folks have been getting a break every week at the pump for a while now. That may be beginning to bite. Next up is mortgages.

Mark
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#17 zman

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:10 AM

just so you know we still have a gap on the es at 791
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#18 hedgehawk

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:13 AM

Not only do I think we're going to see a huge and dramatic improvement in the economy, I think it'll be faster than anyone thinks. That will translate to the stock market first. Don't be on the wrong side of it and for goodness sake, don't pay a lick of attention to the news. The market has discounted that already.

Mark



Does this mean that you are fully long?


No. It means that I wish I was. I intend to get there at every opportunity and that I won't be shorting except for very short-term trades.


Thanks for sharing your outlook.

Edited by hedgehawk, 08 December 2008 - 08:13 AM.


#19 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:13 AM

I have learned from the school of hard knocks that to make a major prediction of that nature, it is better to wait for some hard evidence before pronouncing. It's fine to "hold an opinion or a view" but to state it with such conviction and maintain credibility, one should simply have more evidence on one's side.


Oh, I have a strong case. I've been outlining it.

But here's the thing: I've got a 100% accuracy rate on my "grand predictions" and 26 years worth of background. I've got my battle scars on top of battle scars.

Sure, use good trading discipline. Don't throw caution to the wind. Defer to technicals. What do THEY say?

But if you're waiting for "hard evidence", well, the market will be up 50% before you get your hard evidence.

I'm saying that the primary gloom and doom scenario is so wrong as to be laughable. Things may get really complex soon, but deflationary depression is no longer a remote concern.

Mark
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#20 ...

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:16 AM

Things are about to improve DRAMATICALLY on the economic front


This is dreaming. And the market hasn't realized anything, they remain a function of forced liquidations, the stream of which we haven't even begun to exhaust, huge bounces notwithstanding.

There is no hope of anything dramatic happening as long as the idiots in power think that moving dollars from one pocket (any lender) to another pocket (any beneficiary of some government largesse) makes any difference at all. It doesn't.

The only thing that gets us out of this are major MARGINAL RATE income tax cuts. Coolidge proved it in the '20s. Kennedy proved it in the '60s (LBJ got JFK's proposed tax cuts passed,) Reagan proved it in the '80s, and Bush proved it in '03.

Bush's "stimulus" payments, disquised as "tax cuts" in '01 and '08 did squat. Just as every one of the trillion or so dollars the federal government will now proceed to suck out of the private sector and waste will do nothing. Since the feds are involved, it will actually wind up being a net detriment.

Bush's '03 tax cuts (totally different animal than the '01 and '08 garbage) worked because they made a difference in how people act AT THE MARGIN. They changed INCENTIVES. Nothing short of that will work. Nothing short of that has EVER worked.

At the moment, there is little to zero hope of any constructive action being taken by government.