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Fearless Forecast


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#21 hiker

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:20 AM

Mark,

you have claimed here for years to ignore fundamentals and trade ONLY the chart is most prudent.

here is the one chart observation I can find you make in this thread:

"The base we're at is artificially low and appears worse than it is."

what chart data element(s) supports this assertion?

SPX 60-min since before Oct 10 shows one version of a trading range -

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...amp;a=156161816

Edited by hiker, 08 December 2008 - 08:23 AM.


#22 ogm

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:24 AM

Things are about to improve DRAMATICALLY on the economic front


This is dreaming. And the market hasn't realized anything, they remain a function of forced liquidations, the stream of which we haven't even begun to exhaust, huge bounces notwithstanding.


Care to put a number on that ? Or is this just some hot air you're pushing around ? What do you know about forced liquidations ? If you can't quantify it, your guess is as good as anyones.

As for the rest of it, a massive jobs creation programm will work in mitigating the economic fallout. You have to put people to work. And if they have a job they will have access to credit, as simple as that. Even if you create bullsh*t jobs paid by the government.

No sane government will allow millions of people wonder around unemployed and causing trouble. Nevermind that its going to be the strain on social services and cost just as much money anyway. So behold, the new administrations job creation plan is coming and watch the car loans and credit cards magicaly reappear.

#23 humble1

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:32 AM

(hang in there, mark! LOLROTF. /// but, hurry: rd won't like this ... WINK!) ;););)

Edited by humble1, 08 December 2008 - 08:33 AM.


#24 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:40 AM

Mark,

you have claimed here for years to ignore fundamentals and trade ONLY the chart is most prudent.

here is the one chart observation I can find you make in this thread:

"The base we're at is artificially low and appears worse than it is."

what chart data element(s) supports this assertion?

SPX 60-min since before Oct 10 shows one version of a trading range -

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...amp;a=156161816


Hiker, my personal specialty is investor psychology. I speak of the economic and psychological base that we're at. It's artificially low, in my view, based upon a confluence of cautionary reactions not a true and utter disappearance of demand and business.

Now, it COULD still turn into that, but my view is that the massive actions that are being undertaken have already begun reversing the "lock up". If I'm right, then we've got a TON of up side.

Now, technically, you don't need to think about such things as fundamentals. Look at the sentiment. Historically high levels of pessimism all over the place. The weekly trend turned a week ago. The daily is up and confirmed by breadth. The Relative VIX gave a repeat buy a week or two ago, too.

I'd say that if one isn't long (or looking long), one's looking at fundamentals instead of technicals and frankly, getting that wrong too (i.e. looking over one's shoulder instead of forward).

And, btw, I'm pretty sure we get a pullback this week, but I have no idea how to play for it.

Mark
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#25 ...

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:41 AM

a massive jobs creation programm will work in mitigating the economic fallout. You have to put people to work. And if they have a job they will have access to credit, as simple as that. Even if you create bullsh*t jobs paid by the government.


:lol: :lol: :lol:

Any job "created" by government sucks up capital that would have been used by the private sector to create a job that would actually have been of some use to the economy.

FDR proved this at great length, for YEARS on end in the '30s.

This Keynesian garbage has been long discredited, but it seems that people still want to believe that moving money from one pocket to another with no change in incentives makes some sort of difference.

Whether or not the market may like it for a while doesn't matter, it's economic poison and the market will ultimately reflect that.

#26 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 08:48 AM

Any "jobs creation" program is already unnecessary. The recovery is baked in (IF we can drop mortgage rates a bit further and hold them there for a while). Organic jobs growth will be dramatic. Mark
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#27 James Quillian

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 09:07 AM

Mark As strange as it may seem, I agree for the most part. Q%T is about 70% long. All in a matter of months, the working class has finally started collecting their productivity bonus. This can be very significant in fueling consumer demand.

#28 Mike McCarthy

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 09:52 AM

I have learned from the school of hard knocks that to make a major prediction of that nature, it is better to wait for some hard evidence before pronouncing. It's fine to "hold an opinion or a view" but to state it with such conviction and maintain credibility, one should simply have more evidence on one's side.


Oh, I have a strong case. I've been outlining it.

But here's the thing: I've got a 100% accuracy rate on my "grand predictions" and 26 years worth of background. I've got my battle scars on top of battle scars.

Sure, use good trading discipline. Don't throw caution to the wind. Defer to technicals. What do THEY say?

But if you're waiting for "hard evidence", well, the market will be 50% before you get your hard evidence.

I'm saying that the primary gloom and doom scenario is so wrong as to be laughable. Things may get really complex soon, but deflationary depression is no longer a remote concern.

Mark



Mark,

Are you disagreeing with Carl here, or do place your "most dramatic reversal in economic fortunes of our lifetimes" within his fifth secular trend?


http://www.decisionp.../081031_lt.html

#29 skott

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 09:54 AM

or we are going to get a massive 20% reversal to test the lows

#30 2cents

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Posted 08 December 2008 - 10:11 AM

Mark What your seeing is the realisation that both China and India are only in their first major correction. As I said a few weeks ago this should be short lived and their economy will turn up much quicker than ours. Its important not to be confused with their economy and markets. We should get a pretty good pop with energy and commodities leading the way. But the US will not see a new bull market as a result of this. We are simply in a bear rally that should result in a trading ranging which I would expect for years to come. The US is in much worse condition than Japan ever was and that's what I would expect for our markets. Hyper inflation should set in by years end as the dollar gets cut in half from current levels.
My opinion isn't worth the HTML it's written on