51 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

I have learned from the school of hard knocks that to make a major prediction of that nature, it is better to wait for some hard evidence before pronouncing. It's fine to "hold an opinion or a view" but to state it with such conviction and maintain credibility, one should simply have more evidence on one's side.

Oh, I have a strong case. I've been outlining it.

But here's the thing: I've got a 100% accuracy rate on my "grand predictions" and 26 years worth of background. I've got my battle scars on top of battle scars.

Sure, use good trading discipline. Don't throw caution to the wind. Defer to technicals. What do THEY say?

But if you're waiting for "hard evidence", well, the market will be 50% before you get your hard evidence.

I'm saying that the primary gloom and doom scenario is so wrong as to be laughable. Things may get really complex soon, but deflationary depression is no longer a remote concern.

Mark

Mark,

Are you disagreeing with Carl here, or do place your "most dramatic reversal in economic fortunes of our lifetimes" within his fifth secular trend?


http://www.decisionp.../081031_lt.html

Carl makes some very good points, but I can tell you that it's tough finding any sort of historical analog here. I don't deny the possibility of a long consolidation phase, either. There's lots of room for that.

I'm thinking that the cap on the massive rally might come from over-stimulation driven inflation, OR, a huge increase in taxation and regulation which will constrain the stock market out in a few years.

We'll just have to see. Near term, however, there's money coming to consumers and the market and it's going to have to find a home.

Mark

[salsabob]

Ah, the 4th bounce of the 5-wave trip down to the big 'C. – “all is well,” “we are saved,” “dawn is breaking.” One characteristic of a 4th Turning is the growing frustration of traders whose tools that worked so well growing to be less and less so. Anyone who experienced the 'sentiment' of the last 4th Turning would be in their 90s today, i.e., it is unlikely that today's sentiment reflects what is and will be happening to those who hold it.. No one being alive who experienced the last 4T is a prerequisite for the unfolding of a new one. But, in the meantime, let's make some money!

[da_cheif]

so it was written......and so it shall be........the epicenter of primary three

[salsabob]

Things are about to improve DRAMATICALLY on the economic front

This is dreaming. And the market hasn't realized anything, they remain a function of forced liquidations, the stream of which we haven't even begun to exhaust, huge bounces notwithstanding.

There is no hope of anything dramatic happening as long as the idiots in power think that moving dollars from one pocket (any lender) to another pocket (any beneficiary of some government largesse) makes any difference at all. It doesn't.

The only thing that gets us out of this are major MARGINAL RATE income tax cuts. Coolidge proved it in the '20s. Kennedy proved it in the '60s (LBJ got JFK's proposed tax cuts passed,) Reagan proved it in the '80s, and Bush proved it in '03.

Bush's "stimulus" payments, disquised as "tax cuts" in '01 and '08 did squat. Just as every one of the trillion or so dollars the federal government will now proceed to suck out of the private sector and waste will do nothing. Since the feds are involved, it will actually wind up being a net detriment.

Bush's '03 tax cuts (totally different animal than the '01 and '08 garbage) worked because they made a difference in how people act AT THE MARGIN. They changed INCENTIVES. Nothing short of that will work. Nothing short of that has EVER worked.

At the moment, there is little to zero hope of any constructive action being taken by government.

Ah, the essence of 3T thinking - govt can do no right, private sector can do no wrong (or at least rightfully punished by market forces if they do )

FDR's attempt to abandon Keynes in the mid-'30s was what nearly cost him his legacy; his quick reversal and that little govt stimulus called WW2 is why he's on the 10-penny.

But that's not going to make us any money right now!

[da_cheif]

Things are about to improve DRAMATICALLY on the economic front

This is dreaming. And the market hasn't realized anything, they remain a function of forced liquidations, the stream of which we haven't even begun to exhaust, huge bounces notwithstanding.

There is no hope of anything dramatic happening as long as the idiots in power think that moving dollars from one pocket (any lender) to another pocket (any beneficiary of some government largesse) makes any difference at all. It doesn't.

The only thing that gets us out of this are major MARGINAL RATE income tax cuts. Coolidge proved it in the '20s. Kennedy proved it in the '60s (LBJ got JFK's proposed tax cuts passed,) Reagan proved it in the '80s, and Bush proved it in '03.

Bush's "stimulus" payments, disquised as "tax cuts" in '01 and '08 did squat. Just as every one of the trillion or so dollars the federal government will now proceed to suck out of the private sector and waste will do nothing. Since the feds are involved, it will actually wind up being a net detriment.

Bush's '03 tax cuts (totally different animal than the '01 and '08 garbage) worked because they made a difference in how people act AT THE MARGIN. They changed INCENTIVES. Nothing short of that will work. Nothing short of that has EVER worked.

At the moment, there is little to zero hope of any constructive action being taken by government.

Ah, the essence of 3T thinking - govt can do no right, private sector can do no wrong (or at least rightfully punished by market forces if they do )

FDR's attempt to abandon Keynes in the mid-'30s was what nearly cost him his legacy; his quick reversal and that little govt stimulus called WW2 is why he's on the 10-penny.

But that's not going to make us any money right now!

fdr didnt have hi speed internut ...only slow speed input.............quick back then was a few years....quick now is just a few weeks.......

[salsabob]

so it was written......and so it shall be........the epicenter of primary three

I hope you're right!

Was it good that Pandora return to open the box a second time?

[salsabob]

Things are about to improve DRAMATICALLY on the economic front

This is dreaming. And the market hasn't realized anything, they remain a function of forced liquidations, the stream of which we haven't even begun to exhaust, huge bounces notwithstanding.

There is no hope of anything dramatic happening as long as the idiots in power think that moving dollars from one pocket (any lender) to another pocket (any beneficiary of some government largesse) makes any difference at all. It doesn't.

The only thing that gets us out of this are major MARGINAL RATE income tax cuts. Coolidge proved it in the '20s. Kennedy proved it in the '60s (LBJ got JFK's proposed tax cuts passed,) Reagan proved it in the '80s, and Bush proved it in '03.

Bush's "stimulus" payments, disquised as "tax cuts" in '01 and '08 did squat. Just as every one of the trillion or so dollars the federal government will now proceed to suck out of the private sector and waste will do nothing. Since the feds are involved, it will actually wind up being a net detriment.

Bush's '03 tax cuts (totally different animal than the '01 and '08 garbage) worked because they made a difference in how people act AT THE MARGIN. They changed INCENTIVES. Nothing short of that will work. Nothing short of that has EVER worked.

At the moment, there is little to zero hope of any constructive action being taken by government.

Ah, the essence of 3T thinking - govt can do no right, private sector can do no wrong (or at least rightfully punished by market forces if they do )

FDR's attempt to abandon Keynes in the mid-'30s was what nearly cost him his legacy; his quick reversal and that little govt stimulus called WW2 is why he's on the 10-penny.

But that's not going to make us any money right now!

fdr didnt have hi speed internut ...only slow speed input.............quick back then was a few years....quick now is just a few weeks.......

Yes, and if the British had had the radio, King George's fireside chat would have calmed John Hancock down to sip some tea instead of throwing it overboard.

Say, do you remember if you could short commodities back then? I myself went long American whiskey; made a killin!

[skott]

don't forget my suggestion of a 20% reversal off today's HIGH this could cascade lower if this "strength" doesn't hold. everyone knows the bailout news will be coming out. BTW, who is going to buy the cars??

[IYB]

Mark- I'm sorting through these posts to try to get straight in my mind the basis for your belief. As best I can tell, it is based on a combination of your belief that the interwoven bedrock fundamentals are fall better than is nearly universally believed- and that sentiment is the most extreme in decades. Is that a fair thumb nail sketch? And to amplify that a bit: the market has haved on a mis-understanding or mis-interpretation of the underlying dynmaics of the economy, and on its residual strength, and that economy is about to start {or already is} repairing itself fairly quickly, as oil costs have come down, mortgages rates have come down, and other seemingly "broken" aspects are repairing themselves or being repaired. Thus the undoing of the market will be quickly reversed as well. Is that the general idea? Just looking to understand your thesis- as it certainly is a gutsy position to take. You give no meaning to "Fearless Forecasters", and I commend you for taking a bold stand, whether I happen to agree or not. I wish more would do so. Regards, D -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- {Though, for the record, am sticking with my secular bear market, cyclical bear market, intermediate uptrend scenario as laid out over preceding weeks.}

Edited by IYB, 08 December 2008 - 01:04 PM.

[da_cheif]

hi don........yup all crashes since the beginning of time have been a >missunderstanding<.....lol.....and history has allways shown that the bear allways overplay their hands.....bottoms come and go like a theif in the nite.......