51 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

don't forget my suggestion of a 20% reversal off today's HIGH this could cascade lower if this "strength" doesn't hold. everyone knows the bailout news will be coming out. BTW, who is going to buy the cars??

filling this mornings opening gap would be purrrrrfect......


"whos going to buy the cars".....most people allready hava car.....theyll buy something else.......most people buy cars because they want them....like a new shirt even tho they got a closet full......since we really dont NEED them we can wait.......somebody will be alllways there with a new car to sell us sometime......

Edited by da_cheif, 08 December 2008 - 01:09 PM.

[IYB]

hi don........yup all crashes since the beginning of time have been a >missunderstanding<.....lol.....and history has allways shown that the bear allways overplay their hands.....bottoms come and go like a theif in the nite.......

[humble1]

chef: i'm glad you are here; i need the help. but you can forget about the gap fill. there is something most folks here just can't quite get about being bullish, LOL! oh, my ... i'll go back to lurking and laughing now. p.s. the average age of cars is now something like 9.2 years, a record i think. but why bother with these silly things. the joint is the next best thing to talk radio or a tent preacher with a fire and brimstone message. hey, i think i hit on it. that's what they have been listening to!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited by humble1, 08 December 2008 - 02:56 PM.

[humble1]

HAHAHA ... taking about filling the gap is he ... i just realized ... da cheif MUST BE SHORT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ogm]

a massive jobs creation programm will work in mitigating the economic fallout. You have to put people to work. And if they have a job they will have access to credit, as simple as that. Even if you create bullsh*t jobs paid by the government.

Any job "created" by government sucks up capital that would have been used by the private sector to create a job that would actually have been of some use to the economy.

FDR proved this at great length, for YEARS on end in the '30s.

This Keynesian garbage has been long discredited, but it seems that people still want to believe that moving money from one pocket to another with no change in incentives makes some sort of difference.

Whether or not the market may like it for a while doesn't matter, it's economic poison and the market will ultimately reflect that.

What is a job create by government ? If the government decides to spend money to renovate schools, does it hire its own employees or a private business that all over suddenly has a contract and needs to hire people.

Government created job can mean a lot of different things.

Iraq war is also government created jobs.

[da_cheif]

HAHAHA ...

taking about filling the gap is he ... i just realized ... da cheif MUST BE SHORT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

must be short......a pipe dream...

[humble1]

glad to hear it! i need duh company; it's gettin' mighty lonely.

[thespookyone]

"I'm saying that the primary gloom and doom scenario is so wrong as to be laughable." agreed, Mark-and I'm noticing the trading of the market to be the same. Most traders I know are so beared up they can't trade the market worth crap. They watch a 170 point SPX ramp up off the bottom, not trading it, or worse yet shorting it-because they think that short term there HAS to be another 100 point SPX downside left. I saw many shorting AT the bottom to catch the mythical last 100 points-only to get smoked. The risk reward at 730 was VERY skewed to the upside at that point, but they seemed to be willing to take great risk for measily reward because they were so psycologically beared up. The aftermath of the upmove for the Bears is a string of pattented excuses that blame everyone from the government on down for why THEIR trade isn't working. I teach trading online, and give my students my trades free. To a person, they watched me cash one after another quite profitable long trades-and I had NO followers in the whole class. In the meantime, they were getting smoked shorting, as they were SURE every move up was a wave 2 up, with a wave three down just around the corner. Long story short-they lost enough to take and profit from my long trades the past couple days. Funny, as they know I'll trade short just as easily when warranted, even in the middle of an upmove-did it last week to perfection. I can not opine enough that folks need to trade what the market gives and shows them, and not what the media assures them will happen. The weak gapdown on those horrific job numbers spoke volumes-to those willing to listen. When the market failed to break 822 the other day-I knew all I needed to know, because in the simplest sense price is king-and MUST be respected. Those traders that get intoxicated on Bull or Bear are destined to low earnings or failure-or both. Spooky

Edited by thespookyone, 08 December 2008 - 09:11 PM.

[zoropb]

Mark as much as I want you to be correct on this call I do not see the catalyst that takes us into a new real bull market. I hear you on sentiment. As someone mentioned in a way what good is it to have say SPX 1500 if the currency is debased down the road 50% we are right back where we started. The only out unless some amazing new technological find is made in the US is a currency debasement. Do not forget I still think USD goes 81 end of Dec or so then 85-86 end of Jan then 77 Aprilish before we rally to 95. lol US housing still has an 11 month overhang with a demographic that will not be able to obsorb this inventory until likely 2015 though I think a low should come in after the last of the big resets in 2011. Commercial Real Estate is now tanking. Then the bond bubble unwinds as yields will go much higher down the road. This should effect all and yes the Gov will continue monetizing debt then more debasement and more rallies that are worth 1/3 of the last one etc. Until some Gold backed currency is once again the standard. I see big rallies and big tanks for decades with each successive rally worth less than the last on what a $ will buy you. I said it 2002 and I will say it again it continues on and on until this debt mess is corrected. Hey but I'll trade it either short long sideways what ever lol... so again I hope I am dead wrong and you are correct. For now 1020 is my target by Mid April unless things change. Z

[OEXCHAOS]

I can't speak to S&P advances net of currency changes. I trade in $'s and a spend in $'s. It won't make me feel any better knowing that while my short went 10% against me, the trade was actually worth 20% due to dollar depreciation. I suspect that what will stop this thing is too much government "help" and then then need to tax for it. But a run up to 1400 is plenty to call a Bull. Cyclical or otherwise.