35 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

http://siliconinvest...?msgid=25250179

[Tor]

http://siliconinvest...?msgid=25250179

cheif it would appear bradley and www marked a HIGH? no?

Im going short, this thing is going down int year end to my eyes.

[dasein]

how about the real dark days, business approves, jada jada

NYT 1930
http://select.nytime...m...p=8&sq=dark days economy 1930&st=cse

or too much optimism?
http://select.nytime...m...=11&sq=dark days economy 1930&st=cse

and just a reminder of how the banks were handled in the last depression - the one that made us create various legal safeguards against a repeat of the depression, safeguards that were finally dismantled in the last years.

http://www.presidenc...x.php?pid=14540

[rigelpug]

http://siliconinvest...?msgid=25250179

cheif it would appear bradley and www marked a HIGH? no?

Im going short, this thing is going down int year end to my eyes.

I think da chief is trying to say that we should short any rally on Monday.

[Tor]

seems right: ugh oh........... The AAII which measures retail investors shows a similar effect with the bulls at 37.50% and the bears at 39.84%. This is a much larger move to optimism than the newsletter editors. Basically the AAII sentiment is equal - which from a contrarian point of view isn’t good news. Rather than seeing further reluctance from investors and traders to believe in the market as it rises, we are seeing them jump aboard with itchy trigger fingers.

[humble1]

that's good: for one thing it shows why the commericals are short, though i suspect those are really hedges which will be lifted in a panic as time passes. for another, marty zweig has shown that the "public" is correct most/all of the time in bull moves. the idea that a bullish public is bearish for the market is hogwash and promoted by sentiment m/d's, lol.

Edited by humble1, 13 December 2008 - 09:52 AM.

[nimblebear]

Frankly I dont understand how any economist, forecaster, predictor, sage, or whatever can begin to think the consumer will recover anytime soon. They've all extended themselves far beyond any capacity that is sustainable, starting this mess over 20 years ago. The government has spent itself and the taxpayer into insolvency or indebtedness that will take a lifetime to pay off. And folks believe that yet MORE indebtness (re:stimulus) is going to somehow make things better ? Makes absolutely no sense. Besides, people all have nearly brand new cars, homes, furniture, plazmas,computers,camera's,cell phones, ipods, kitchens, redone basements, appliances that quite simply could last them for years if they strove to pay down debt and not spend much for awhile and began to get themselves in a position to actually save. here is what it will take to solve this mess: + government needs to cut spending by at least 25%. Cut out major chunks from military spending + consumers need to keep any car less than 2 years old for at least another 5 to 7 years. + consumers who are in over their head on mortage need to foreclose and star anew and then maybe buy a house that was half or less of the one they bought previously. + seniors need to rapidly downsize their homes. selling to whoever can actually afford their mc mansions if they still have them + banks need to massively raise interest rates to attract depositors away from risky stocks and bonds. + consumers who can afford the home they are in, need to cut back on remdoles and live with tthe "stuff" they have with at least 5 years before major expenditures. + IF the government wishes to embark on re-building infrastructure it needs to focus on MASS transit, re-design of the nations communities to cut back on urban sprawl and re-design the world of integrated work, and life style into a smaller commute for all involved. It also needs to focus on re-extensive improvement of all telecommunications, making the web yet faster and beefing up security measures. If it focuses on energy, it needs to dsiband this folly of renewables being the answer and focus on nuclear now. Forget about bankrupting coal fired plants, and just focus on building the new nukes. the coal plants will shutdown due to attrition and survival of the fittest economically and environmentally speaking. + the world needs to do the above same things, and teh US manufacuturing needs to find a way to supply this stuff and newer technolgy and become more of a center that can manufacture products for the world. +dont scrap unions, but refocus unions more on issues that help these manufacturers become sustainable. and focus less on fixed salaries, and annual increases that are tied simply to infaltion or some arbitrary feel good factor. Pay for performance is the key, and incentives need to be structured such that if these workers perform they will make a lot of money if the company makes a lot of money. Whack the execs salaries as well, and limit the top pay to a far smaller ratio of the bottom pay. 40 or 50 or 100 to 1 is simply a subscription for animosity among workers and no matter what incentives are in place, if execs keep these high ratios it will be self defeating in the long run. +completely eliminate derivatives. + forget about global warming and simply dow what is right for the environment. that means get rid of any desire for cap and trade. There will still be pain if we embark on this path, but after the pain will be a far more sustainable economy, in the US and world wide. With the current proposed nightmare of simply stimulus and bailoust left and right, IF we recover at all it will be temporary and we will be back to a far worse place eventually and the cycle will repeat itself until we become non-existent as a society and a nation. we will truly mimick the fall of the roman empire or any empire that ruled before us if we dont change the course we are on via more stimulus.

[humble1]

nb: well, let's talk some #'s: * there is the mortgage and i-rate drop which some say will add $300/mo. and economists say will boost consumer pocketbooks by up to $1 trillion/yr. * there is the energy price plunge, which includes gasoline costs and heating costs right in the worst part of winter. this bonus is nearly $1 trillion/yr. * there is the O stimulus plan which will be at least $1 trillion/yr. over the next two years. that much already has been announced. $3 trillion in a $12 trillion economy (?) is a pretty good lick! comments? p.s. bottom line: expert ST traders may do okay if they are lucky, but working the short side IT or over even a few days will risk getting the trader's butt kicked into the next ice age.

Edited by humble1, 13 December 2008 - 10:13 AM.

[rigelpug]

here is what it will take to solve this mess:
+ government needs to cut spending by at least 25%. Cut out major chunks from military spending
+ consumers need to keep any car less than 2 years old for at least another 5 to 7 years.
+ consumers who are in over their head on mortage need to foreclose and star anew and then maybe buy a house that was half or less of the one they bought previously.
+ seniors need to rapidly downsize their homes. selling to whoever can actually afford their mc mansions if they still have them
+ banks need to massively raise interest rates to attract depositors away from risky stocks and bonds.
+ consumers who can afford the home they are in, need to cut back on remdoles and live with tthe "stuff" they have with at least 5 years before major expenditures.
+ IF the government wishes to embark on re-building infrastructure it needs to focus on MASS transit, re-design of the nations communities to cut back on urban sprawl and re-design the world of integrated work, and life style into a smaller commute for all involved. It also needs to focus on re-extensive improvement of all telecommunications, making the web yet faster and beefing up security measures. If it focuses on energy, it needs to dsiband this folly of renewables being the answer and focus on nuclear now. Forget about bankrupting coal fired plants, and just focus on building the new nukes. the coal plants will shutdown due to attrition and survival of the fittest economically and environmentally speaking.
+ the world needs to do the above same things, and teh US manufacuturing needs to find a way to supply this stuff and newer technolgy and become more of a center that can manufacture products for the world.
+dont scrap unions, but refocus unions more on issues that help these manufacturers become sustainable. and focus less on fixed salaries, and annual increases that are tied simply to infaltion or some arbitrary feel good factor. Pay for performance is the key, and incentives need to be structured such that if these workers perform they will make a lot of money if the company makes a lot of money. Whack the execs salaries as well, and limit the top pay to a far smaller ratio of the bottom pay. 40 or 50 or 100 to 1 is simply a subscription for animosity among workers and no matter what incentives are in place, if execs keep these high ratios it will be self defeating in the long run.
+completely eliminate derivatives.
+ forget about global warming and simply dow what is right for the environment. that means get rid of any desire for cap and trade.

There will still be pain if we embark on this path, but after the pain will be a far more sustainable economy, in the US and world wide.
With the current proposed nightmare of simply stimulus and bailoust left and right, IF we recover at all it will be temporary and we will be back to a far worse place eventually and the cycle will repeat itself until we become non-existent as a society and a nation. we will truly mimick the fall of the roman empire or any empire that ruled before us if we dont change the course we are on via more stimulus.

That sounds like the perfect strategy. I suspect we are going to put in a bear market low very very soon. Then, we will muddle along for three or four years repairing the damage. After that, da cheif's epicenter prediction should be extremely accurate.

[mss]

Frankly I dont understand how any economist, forecaster, predictor, sage, or whatever can begin to think the consumer will recover anytime soon.

They've all extended themselves far beyond any capacity that is sustainable, starting this mess over 20 years ago. The government has spent itself and the taxpayer into insolvency or indebtedness that will take a lifetime to pay off.

The problem started 31 years ago and will take at least 2 generations to correct the current "mind set" of "I got to have it and charge it."

Look at the current ads, buy now pay later, guess what? Bad economy, prices are low, look at our discounts, buy-- pay later, low interest rates, starting 2 years from now --blah, blah.
mss