35 replies to this topic

[Tor]

great perspective from rd and the chef. that fractal is just what i am looking for, fwiw. also, the latest unemployment #'s were the worst since november 1982.

now, go back and look at rd's chart. how did folks who were watching those #'s do from 8/9/82? i'll tell you how:

they got their butts kicked into the next ice age!

this time: the stimulus is much greater, too.

be LONG or be WRONG!!!!!

We are gonna tank BIG.

Its amazing how wrong everyone can be.

The economy is truly ferked. One year of base building lies ahead IMO, so far.

[Rogerdodger]

What happened when the media used "DARK" on August 15th 1982?
Now if we can just get above that 50DMA.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&st=1981-01-01&en=1983-01-01&i=p81799018503&r=3150.png

That was a cross of 50/200dma.....That was what i said....the 200dma is so far away.....
Also a whole year of base building.....

TP I didn't see your post until after I posted my response.
I was basically trying to make the same point.
One difference today from 1982 is the speed of moves both up and down.
I'm neither bull nor bear but taking one day at a time.

[dcengr]

I agree with TP. You need a base before this thing can take off. We maybe building a base now, but as I see it, every micro rally gets the bears off and bulls screaming back in. I don't see how it can break out now when you need persistent bearishness near the breakout point.

[2cents]

[/quote] The world doesn't need to do the same thing because it has very little debt compared to the U.S. The addiction is to deep.

[thespookyone]

"I agree with TP." Perfect storm.

[humble1]

rd: apologies, LOL. i didn't get your drift; i didn't realize you were supporting the doubters with that one. but that IS ROUGHLY the fractal i am looking for, at least into spx 1100ish. nevertheless, folks: chef has Given you a gift today with his historical perspective. i suggest you take it into yourselves and thank him for it.

[da_cheif]

i like this little paragrah in that 1982 article >The trouble is spreading abroad. Following the mystery-drenched collapse of Italy's Banco Ambrosiano, Germany's mighty AEG-Telefunken suddenly declared bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the only rising stock markets left, in Japan and Britain, started falling - suggesting that the slump is becoming worldwide. <

[dcengr]

"I agree with TP."

Perfect storm.

You're probably right. My track record this year has sucked.

But I continue to believe that the more persistent I am about getting my money back, the more successful I will be. Think and grow rich. So stop raining on my parade and I assure you that this time, I will make $ and make up all my losses.

[Rogerdodger]

Compare the previous declines in, 81-82, 02,03, with 2008.
Price crosses the 50MA several times to begin turning it up.
Would a thousand points up from here be much different from those patterns?
1000 points would only get price 1/2 way back up to the 200MA.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&st=1981-01-01&en=1983-01-01&i=p81799018503&r=3150.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&st=2002-01-01&en=2004-01-01&i=p09307796727&r=8529.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p09307796727&r=1377.png

[mss]

Roger, There are signs that a "base" of some sort is forming. The question at the present is it a "running top" base or a "running bottom" base. Only time will tell for sure, but IMO it is looking more like a bottom build for a IT run up. It will have wild swings, "dead cat bounces" but I think the bias will be upward. You might get your 1000PT on the DOW. I'm thinking we get to 1005, test back 920-930 breakout, then we might get "T's" 1050ish. Then the 695 lower leg. mss