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kind of a running H1 thread/blog with great value


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#1 humble1

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Posted 17 December 2008 - 04:04 AM

i like this place: it is quieter, more civilized, and it seems it is okay to talk to yourself. i should be able to stay out of trouble over here unless i get into a food fight with meself, which does happen fairly frequently. i'll be sure to avoid any namecalling, though: that would be kind of crazy. B) here's my yap, for now: i'm bullish; i'm long, loaded long. as of last night's close i am about b/e for this swingtrade, which started on 10/10 and was entered mostly within the 10/10 bar. only one, small position (thankfully), stock stinks badly. my main position is in leveraged funds/etf's and is slightly above water. i have had a very, very good year, thanks to the gracious gods of olde. the moon goddess, Luna, has been so kind. i am thinking now of 10/11/07 and 5/19/08, for two of many. so: what now? i don't really have a clue but it seems we could chop for a while, with lots of teases and VST whipsaws, into (just below) that spx 1100 gap area. that action would keep the shorts short or shorting until it wears them out. ms. market is so cruel sometimes. the dates of most interest are 1/23/09-1/26/09. 12/27 is also on my date radar but not blinking nearly as brightly. more on the ratio's and e-wave ideas WHY in another post. if that, or something like it, were to happen, i could see a good short set up.

#2 humble1

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Posted 18 December 2008 - 03:32 AM

yesterday was a delightful day for the bull case. we seem to be getting back to some sense of order in the market. the higher high and low are clearly good signs. the lower close was positive, too, considering that spx stayed above the 50 dma on the close. now for some FED yap: i expected an aggressive FED move and even posted about the need for them to go ahead and drop all the way, which, in effect, they did do with the 0-1/4 range. even with that expectation i am impressed: other action ready to be taken was forcefully mentioned, too! bernanke seems to be fully aware of the epic deflationary pressures he is fighting. has he studied long waves and k-waves? it seems he has. maybe some on the board have even dabbled into the mysterious and read the widely respected financial astologer ray merriman, who has been predicting for years that the troubles we are seeing now would come now. no, he wasn't someone who was constantly saying "armageddon now!" for years and even decades. he has urged us to get ready for THIS time period we are in now and has mentioned 2008 all along as a starter. well, enough of that. i am not a financial astrologer and know VERY LITTLE about it. but it is kind of weird, the whole thing. and the dates sure as heck are useful in "my" eclectic system. enough for now: onward and upward (for now, lol)!

#3 twocents

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Posted 18 December 2008 - 11:00 PM

B) I made it here! I truly believe that diaries, which is what blogs were originally, are mental health endeavors. Although I haven't kept it up in recent years as I once did, your approach to timing is a valid way to do business with sometimes spectacular results. Writing it out on a blog and saving it too (!) is important, and I hope you will do so for yourself, for your family in future uears, and for humanity generally. Writing was almost a lost art until the "internut". My wife's family and my own had a lot of scholars and writers, so we appreciate the written word which is really all that preserves the valuable past. My guess is that the Beatles' lyrics, buried in a cave in a desert will last longer than digitalized film of The Yellow Submarine. LOL Do it!

#4 humble1

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Posted 19 December 2008 - 06:52 AM

the prevailing views of the IT outcome seem to be in two camps: 1. we are about to blast off and scorch the bears as the improving background credit conditions become accepted as here for a while. 2. we are about to plunge into a new low, maybe this month but surely in january. i have been in camp #1 for a while. it occurs to me this morning that there is a third choice, perhaps the most likely, which VIX is hinting at as it declines: 3. after a period of extreme volatility and stress, it is easy for all of us to project the left side of the chart to the right side. but, suppose ms. market is now going to be tricky and calm down and calm US down and just give us one of those long relaxing advances, putting us in a shehrezade trance. wouldn't this drive those of us nuts who are not already nuts? B)

#5 humble1

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Posted 20 December 2008 - 06:10 AM

thanks, twocents: i am still confused but would be TOTALLY confused without your longwave/k-wave teachings. knowing/believing we are in the sharpest slope of the downgrade makes a huge difference as to how i approach swing trading. i have to be very careful about sudden downdrafts, which may show up for years but which also may provide spectatular trading opportunities.

#6 humble1

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Posted 20 December 2008 - 06:27 AM

this morning i am mulling over what happened at the historic FED meeting this past week: the 0-.25 range was a stunner, yes. but what may have mattered as much was the statement which said that we can count on this range for the foreseeable future, that we don't need to wonder at upcoming meetings what rates will be discussed or implemented, and that we can bank on the 0-.25. why so important? well, it gave us clarity about the rate future in a way i do not remember ever before. it also marks an inflection point of great significance in the epic battle (which it seems to know that it is in) the FED is having with deflation. they let us know they have fired all the interest rate cannons. the starboard side of the ship is finished, the guns are heated and warped. now they will turn and bring to bear the port side, the quantitative side. they have prepared us for that and given us strong guidance as to the general battle plan. whether or not any/all of this will work or make things worse or not matter at all is for a deeper discussion elsewhere with better minds. but for now, we know what the 1/27-1/28 meeting will be about: how fast and how often to fire those quantitative cannons!

#7 humble1

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Posted 20 December 2008 - 06:39 AM

and speaking of better minds, the above mentioned "twocents" has a blog which deals with this more issues. it is here:

http://twocents.blog...-revisited.html

GOLD!

#8 humble1

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Posted 20 December 2008 - 06:49 AM

oops!

i think i sent the last one before i was ready. what i wanted to say is: GOLD!

at "twocents" blog you will read a fascinating possibility that the US gold reserves may be revalued in order to bolster the FED balance sheet. this was mentioned by a former FED governor and is now "out there." the links and discussion are at "twocents" blog:

http://twocents.blog...-revisited.html

#9 twocents

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Posted 22 December 2008 - 10:48 PM

I have spent the spent two days agonizing over changing from a largely short term US Federal and municpal notes and gold position back to longer bonds. I was in zero long bonds through Vanguard's EDV earlier and made a nice profit, but long term bonds now in the risky area along with most other assets. It's different this time, and I think "near" cash and gold is still best for now. None of the people at this time who are speaking in public seem to be at all clear on the inflation versus deflation debate. For a long time I "knew" exactly, or so I thought, but it's not the time in my life to be a battlefield warrior risking all. If we are going back to the (western) Roman Empire in 477 (year after final loss, Romulus Augustus), it's retreat and conserve time and not go-go growth time. Maximizing ephemeral gains in a vulnerable currency (everywhere) may be yesterday's goal. Antal Fekete says gold and silver are likely to go out of circulation and into hiding. The next development would be retaining and then later adding to rural real estate holdings and control of the local populations. But all commerce would be in new local power control and barter relationships. Gold stays hidden, perhaps for generations. Mind you, I'm not predicting this or insisting upon it, but alternative realities may need to be considered as in World War II. The odds favor business as usual until it isn't. But just as we might have lost World War II, we could lose the modern economy. Decline lasts a long time, but total dissolution can occur quite quickly. It's not linear after a certain point. There is grave historical irony in the comparison of Romulus Augustus and Barrack Obama and their eras. It's better to be mentally prepared than totally bewildered and paralyzed as events unfold. And if they don't unfold, and all is jolly well. at least one's brain was exercised and prepared. :)

#10 humble1

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Posted 23 December 2008 - 10:52 AM

i will get out my gibbon, which i have staring at me from an upper bookshelf. for sure, during the looooong decline and fall, many wise romans enjoyed safe and pleasant and even luxurious lives, staying out of trouble when Trouble was brewing. it is said: "what you truly believe you teach your children." i don't teach mine that *we* are in a decline and fall but i do say: "even if i am wrong, think about the hundreds and hundreds of years it took rome to fall and the many good lives lived within that time span." p.s. hmmmm ... that is a long wave cycle for sure. B)