Problem Developing
#1
Posted 03 January 2009 - 11:42 AM
Rates are rising. That takes away stimulus.
That doesn't help the case and folks may start worrying about that.
Also, we got a best fade weekly signal. It is a blunt tool, but we're likely to get a sell off soon. Maybe a two leg correction from higher. Hard to tell.
Of course, a lot has turned up, so we ought to respect that, but I'm cautious in here.
Mark
Mark S Young
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#2
Posted 03 January 2009 - 11:47 AM
https://www.wellsfar...mortgage/rates/
Rates are rising. That takes away stimulus.
That doesn't help the case and folks may start worrying about that.
Also, we got a best fade weekly signal. It is a blunt tool, but we're likely to get a sell off soon. Maybe a two leg correction from higher. Hard to tell.
Of course, a lot has turned up, so we ought to respect that, but I'm cautious in here.
Mark
Mark, the rates look like they are at or near their local lows to me.........at US Bank.
http://www.usbank.co...erest_rates.cfm
#3
Posted 03 January 2009 - 12:35 PM
U.F.O.
Edited by U.F.O., 03 January 2009 - 12:37 PM.
~Benjamin Franklin~
#4
Posted 03 January 2009 - 12:36 PM
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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#5
Posted 03 January 2009 - 02:03 PM
#6
Posted 03 January 2009 - 02:10 PM
Edited by humble1, 03 January 2009 - 02:11 PM.
#7
Posted 03 January 2009 - 02:30 PM
Edited by Data, 03 January 2009 - 02:31 PM.
#8
Posted 03 January 2009 - 02:31 PM
U.F.O.
~Benjamin Franklin~
#9
Posted 03 January 2009 - 03:04 PM
Edited by humble1, 03 January 2009 - 03:05 PM.
#10
Posted 03 January 2009 - 03:06 PM
UFO- this is the kind of hard data I've been searching for- regarding what and when the Fed will actually act, in real terms, in the mortgage markets and in what dollar amounts. Please pass along any reports you see, and/or any links that will help us on this.I'd consider the recent spike up in mortgage rates as a correction before the real business at hand gets underway. The FED has committed to buy some 500+ billion dollars of mortgage-backed securities in the 1st half of 2009, starting in the next couple of weeks. This will have a profound effect on interest rates charged on newly originated loans. Their purchases will be to the tune of approximately 1/2 of all monthly mortgage originations, which is an incredibly large amount. If I was considering the question of when to refi I'd wait a few weeks. IMHO you'll be able to get a 4.00% (or lower) 30yr fixed loan before the snow melts from your driveway.
U.F.O.
I absolutely agree that when they come in, this will dramatically effect the rates in a very positive way- and that UFO is correct about the 4% area- if they act now, before rates rise too much. This is because the "traditional" risk premium on 30-year mortgages versus the 10-year TSY (which is the bench comparitive instrument because most mortgages have an "actual life" of less than 10 years) has been about 120 basis points, and right now, the absense of this promised intervention is keeping that spread at around 270 (plus or minus) basis points.
Thus, again, if they were to come in right now, in earnest.....we could see rates (as UFO says) at or below 4%! Overnight! And despite all of the spepticism I keep reading here about anecdotal stories of who can't, shouldn't or won't refi, the fact is that the marginal impact from those "others" who can, should and will refi will be massive!
Rates are rising and that concerns me a lot- because if the Fed waits till rates get into the mid 3's before acting in the mortgage markets, they will have squandered this huge opportunity to get half of America refinanced at 4% or less- and the impact this will have on disposable cash in consumers hands.
So, again, it boils down to WHEN the Fed does more than just talk-- and acts. I would love to see that before I wake up on Monday morning- but I have no idea what Ben is planning.
UFO- do you have anything links or articles that give would be helpful on this? Thanks, D