2 replies to this topic

[mss]

The weekly chart below, updates, is suggesting that we have a "bullish trend" in progress, but NOT a Bull market, we are still in a Bear. Note the TREND LINE congestion in the "square" and this will not easily be broken.
The target ranges are somewhat confusing at present as the FED's action is playing with the indicators IMO.
Targets are: Top max 1022, most likely upper range 942-982, swing middle 839-879, swing lows 776-736. Key closing point is 803.34.DO NOT rule out a mini crash to 705-695 at some point in the next several weeks.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&i=p61331230210&a=136421765&r=429.png

Comments welcome,
mss

[humble1]

the weekly charts, the way you present them, provide vital perspective and i thank you for them. i use them to generate Price/Time set-ups. these are if/then thAngys and the key to my approach to swing trading. now, otherwise, looking at this one you can see the reverse H&S from across the room. you can also see that, if the pattern continues, we could SCREAM higher. ™

[SilentOne]

hi scott,

Great chart. Gann always worked primarily from weekly charts to give perspective. Then daily charts for ST stuff. And your comment summarizes the weekly chart well.

Targets are: Top max 1022, most likely upper range 942-982, swing middle 839-879, swing lows 776-736. Key closing point is 803.34.DO NOT rule out a mini crash to 705-695 at some point in the next several weeks.

Short term we could get a mini crash here to retest the lows and I will be looking for a long swing trade if price heads down near $SPX 800. Oil is the market I like to watch now and if crude cuts to new lows next week, then it supports the case for weakness into the Jan. 26 timeframe. This window will be the next one to watch and it would coincide with a Hurst 10 week low in the $SPX. Where price ends up at that point in time will give a lot of insight for the market IMO.

Patience will be the key this year. The trade setups will come, but I plan to be very selective. My thinking is to be largely in cash on most occasions until a swing trade presents itself. This way one avoids the price shocks of a bear market and preserves capital to fight another day.

Thanks for you work.

cheers,

john